Jay Reding.com

Well, this speech was pretty decent. Again, it wasn’t great, it wasn’t genius, and it made some bold moves and some less so, but it did the job.

The problem was that President Bush had an opportunity to get truly bold, and he only skirted the edge of these issues. Bush did a good job in the first half on the war and national security, but if we’re going to truly achieve the important goal of becoming a truly 21st Century economy, we need a radical and comprehensive plan to do so. That means a real commitment to nuclear energy. China is working on pebble-bed reactor technology that can provide massive amounts of cheap, clean, and safe nuclear energy. We can’t allow ourselves to fall behind.

VodkaPundit also liveblogged the SOTU, and serves up a healthy dose of snark.

Glenn Reynolds gives it a positive, but hardly glowing review.

Ed Morissey also liveblogged the speech and gave it a positive reaction. He also suffered through Kaine’s speech as well.

I’ll also briefly liveblog Tim Kaine’s Democratic response to the SOTU below. Kaine is widely considered a moderate, and his reactions could be interesting. We’ll see how he does in this most unenviable task.

9:16PM CST: Gov. Kaine is speaking. His tone is just a bit too much like a preacher, and he needs to bring his gestures up. His speaking style is even more atrocious than the President, and he has an odd way of bringing up the tone of his voice at the end of each sentence.

9:18PM CST: The message is decent Democratic red meat, but the speaking style is just horrific. Jerry Kilgore lost to this guy?!

We have learned one thing here. Tim Kaine has no future in national politics. That eyebrow is stuck permanently in the raised position. Kaine’s message is also negative, whiny, and his constant repetition that “there’s a better way” is great - if you actually illustrate what policies constitute “a better way”.

9:22PM CST: And now he’s channeling William Shatner. Really, as horrendous as the President’s oratorical skills are, this is just completely atrocious. If I had taken a drink for each time Kaine says “there’s a better way” I’d be drunker than Ted Kennedy right now. Whoever was the speechwriter for this speech should be fired.

9:24PM CST: Oddly enough, it’s the Democrats who are stronger on enforcing our borders than President Bush was. The Democrats are smart to focus on this issue and try to chip away at Bush’s base - although most people who care about immigration aren’t really going to buy the idea that the Democrats are going to be the party to crack down on illegal imigration.

9:26PM CST: Why can’t the Democrats find a decent speaker? Kaine’s message was fairly decent with a call to come together as Americans, but the presentation was simply atrocious. Granted, this is the toughest job in politics, but Kaine left me feeling underwhelmed.

The Democrats deserve some credit for chosing a Democratic moderate, and while Kaine was horrendous, he wasn’t offensive, which I suppose is a step up.

Powerline gave the speech a good review although they note that Bush’s heart doesn’t seem to be in domestic laundry lists. I did think he rushed the domestic section as well, and his best rhetoric was in the first half dealing with the war and foreign policy.

This garnered a chuckle: “does The Rock know that Kaine stole his trademark facial expression?”

Mark Steyn notes the the intrinsic bizarreness of the concept of an American Competitiveness Initiative. I agree that whole idea is typical SOTU fluff. The last two things that go well together is government and competitiveness. The best way to make America more innovative and competitive is for government to get the hell out of the way. Brian Riedl also criticizes that part of the speech.

Fred Barnes notes Bush’s historic first mention of switchgrass in a State of the Union address on Brit Hume’s show.

The women in the headscarf next to the First Lady was a member of the Afghani government.

It’s off to Family Guy for me - more tomorrow…

Once again, I put my sanity on the line to live blog the annual State of the Union address, beginning at 8:00PM CST.

And while I won’t be following in the traditions of drunkblogging like the inestimable VodkaPundit, I am having a nice tall pilsner glass filled with delicious Schell’s Beer.

UPDATE: Cindy Sheehan has been arrested by Capitol Police for exceeding her fifteen minutes of fame… I almost wish they’d let them in. The sight of her shrieking and trying to disrupt the SOTU would make her look like the loon she really is - a vulture using the corpse of her son (who was a true hero for his actions) as a shield against criticism. The Capitol Police arrested her for trying to bring in an anti-war banner.

7:58PM CST: President Bush is always punctual, so we should be starting quite soon. Vice President Cheney is at the Speaker’s dais with Speaker Hastert.

8:00PM CST: Laura Bush has arrived. A woman in a headscarf is next to her - possibly someone from Iraq.

The Sargeant of Arms has announced the arrival of the Supreme Court - including Justice Alito, sworn in today.

The designated survivor is Jim Nichols, Secretary of Veterans Affairs. If everyone else is killed, he assumes the Presidency - AKA, he becomes Laura Roslin. Fortunately, the chances of Cylon attack seem quite slim.

8:08PM CST: President Bush arrives in the House chambers - a bit later than usual.

And again, the President wears a blue tie, in contrast to the usual Washington red power ties.

8:11PM CST: Ah, the smirk Democrats love to hate…

8:12PM CST: Bush opens with a memorial to Coretta Scott King. A very nice touch.

8:14PM CST: Bush opens with a call for civility in government. He promises to do his part. Sadly, I don’t think it will impact the poisonous partisanship in Washington much at all.

Bush is speaking out directly against protectionism and isolationism. It is interesting how the protectionist impulses formerly associated with the far right have become a staple of the far left. We can’t retreat behind Fortress America any longer - and Bush is right to point that out.

8:16PM CST: Again, the crux of Bush’s historic and in some ways radical vision is tying the freedom of the world to the security of the United States. For all the President’s flaws, that singular visions is the right one for our time. Democracy and freedom are linked. Bush mentioned Syria, Burma, Zimbabwe, North Korea, and Iran as places where the United States will push for freedom. It’s about time.

8:18PM CST: Bush reiterates the threat of terrorism in no uncertain words. He’s starting out quite strong. “We love our freedom, and we will fight to keep it.”

“There is no peace in retreat. And there is no honor in retreat.” Amen to that. We are fighting in a battle of ideas, and our courage and convictions are the greatest weapon we have. “We will never surrender to evil.” This bit is almost Churchillian.

8:20PM CST: Bush states that we are proud to be the allies of the Iraqi people in the cause of freedom. For those of us who have watched Iraq develop, we tend to feel that way.

“The road to victory is the road that will take our troops home.” Again, as many flaws as Bush has, I’m quite glad he has the fortitude to see this war to victory.

Bush is speaking out against defeatism in this war. There are some harsh, but necessary words. Senator Kerry simply looks at his shoes while Bush speaks.

8:26PM CST: Bush reads a letter from a fallen solder, SSgt. Dan Clay of the USMC, killed in Fallujah. His family is in the gallery behind the First Lady.

The care and concern the President has for America’s troops is always evident when he speaks of them. It’s genuine, and it helps to humanize this conflict. The idea that Bush is some heartless monster never really matches what we can see in his face.

8:29PM CST: Bush challenges both Mubarak (in couched words), and the Hamas government of Palestine (in no uncertain terms). He speaks of Saudi Arabia and asks them to press forward with reform. He’s right to point out that Middle Eastern democracies may not look like our own, but they must be free.

And now Bush speaks to Iran. Bush demands that Iran end their support for Hizb’Allah and end their pursuit of nuclear weapons. Bush speaks directly to the people of Iran. He speaks of a close friendship between the US and free and democratic Iran. I hope that comes true during my lifetime, and hopefully it will.

8:32PM CST: Bush talks of foreign aid, and American compassion abroad.

And now the President speaks to the issue of national security.

8:33PM CST: Bush calls for a reauthorization of the PATRIOT Act, which will piss off civil libertarians, but is ultimately the right thing to do.

Bush speaks directly speaks to the NSA wiretapping issue. This is a major political winner for the President. “We will not sit back and wait to be hit again.” A line that reinforces what people already know - that the President is steadfast on defending this country. This might be the definitive line on this issue.

8:37PM CST: Hillary Clinton has a look on her face like “Soon, all this will be mine!”…

8:38PM CST: Bush speaks to the American economy. Bush really needs to show some real vision here. He’s right in pointing out that protectionism and government centralization aren’t the solutions here.

Bush argues that we can’t function without immigrant labor - which gets a standing ovation. Is trying to control immigration really tantamount to isolationism? Bush needs to get out in front of the illegal immigration issue, and I don’t see any sign of that here, which may hurt him.

8:40PM CST: Bush is advocating for making the tax cuts permanent. I have a feeling that Bush won’t get much popular traction here, but those tax cuts will be made permanent. Congress doesn’t want to get caught when everyone finds that their tax bills have gone up. Tax cuts are almost always solid policy.

Bush is stating that we’ll cut the deficit in half by 2009. That seems a bit optimistic to me. I’d like to see a stronger push for fiscal rectitude.

At least Bush did push for earmark reform - Bush is also asking for the line-item veto. Senator McCain is beaming at this point - and personally, I’m with him 110% on that one.

Bush talks of entitlement reform - with a nice joke about the relationship between his dad and President Clinton. A nice humanizing moment for the President.

8:43PM CST: Bush challenges the Democrats after they cheer on killing Social Security reform. What a dumb move for the Democrats. Denying the problem is politically idiotic. Especially when Bush follows up with a call to abandon partisan politics to get this problem solved. Bush isn’t pushing for private accounts, which may be a smart move for him at this point. However, even if we get the option to invest in Treasury Bonds or another government-backed security, having Social Security funds go into a personal rather than a general account is a valuable first step.

8:46PM CST: Bush now speaks out on health care. He’s rushing through some important lines here. Bush also speaks about the value of IT in healthcare, a subject that both Newt Gingrich and Hillary Clinton have been pushing. Bush talks about making health care portable, which is a key component of real reform in healthcare. Bush also demands medical liability reform, mentioning that 1500 American counties do not have a single OB-GYN.

8:48PM CST: “America is addicted to oil.” True, but that’s as much due to physics as it does with behavioral trends. More about “clean” coal. I’d really like to see a much more spirited defense of nuclear energy. If we’re to have a 21st Century economy, we need nuclear energy. No other energy source is as practical, especially with the advent of safe, clean, and efficient pebble bed reactor technology. I really wish Bush had hit on that and started a real program to advance America’s power generation capacity.

Bush is promising 75% less Middle Eastern oil by 2020. I hope we can do better than that.

8:50PM CST: Bush is flogging more funding for math and science education. More money for research, which is not necesarily a bad idea. But if Bush were really visionary, I’d like to see him offer something along the lines of The X-Prize for various breakthroughs like affordable hydrogen, nanotech, etc.

Bush is stating that we need to encourage kids to take math and science. Bush is promising 70,000 new math and science AP teachers. This is typical SOTU stuff, but at least there’s an essential vision there. The fact is that the market is demanding more math and science education, and the market does more to influence people’s choices than government.

8:53PM CST: Bush highlights the positive direction this country has been taking: fewer abortions, less crime, fewer teenage pregnancy. Bush states that governmnent has a played a role, specifically naming welfare reform. I’ll give him that, but the reality is that social mores are far more influential than government.

8:55PM CST: Bush seems to be rushing a bit vocally, stumbling at a few points. I like the optimism Bush displays here, but the rhetoric here doesn’t quite rise to the level of Reagan speech.

Bush gives a nice send-off to Sandra Day O’Connor.

8:57PM CST: Bush speaks out on bioethics, which really appeal to only a few.

Bush now speaks out on ethics on government. To be honest, I wouldn’t mind him going after his own party just a bit. Sadly, it’s just a line. I’d like to see Bush truly link the power of government to corruption in government - following Lord Acton. Sadly, Bush just isn’t that type of conservative.

8:59PM CST: Bush speaks out on the aftermath of Katrina. There’ are some good lines here, but not a great deal of substance.

Bush speaks out against AIDS, and calls for the reauthorization of the Ryan White Act. This is an area where Bush does feel strongly, not that he’ll get much political credit for it. The problem with “ending the stigma” of AIDS is that a certain amount of stigmatization can prevent people from contracting it.

9:02PM CST: Bush talks about this turning point in history - this bit is a nice capstone to his speech.

Just under an hour - not a bad job at all. Further reactions and analysis to follow.

Gov. Tom Vilsack (D-IA) is warning Democrats that the NSA wiretapping controversy is leading them into a political trap:

“If the president broke the law, that’s unacceptable. But I think it’s debateable whether he did,” Vilsack told Des Moines Register editors and reporters.

“And I think Democrats are falling into a very, very large political trap,” he said. “Democrats are not going to win elections until they can reassure people they are going to keep them safe.”

Vilsack is politically savvy enough to see the writing on the wall - his state switched from blue to red in 2004 largely based on Kerry’s poor marks on issues relating to national security.

The fact remains that the Democrats keep having to reach towards heights of rhetorical excess and invent increasingly outlanding scenarios to try to argue against the NSA wiretapping program. Most Americans understand the concept that this isn’t really an issue of civil liberties - the Fourth Amendment only applies to searches which are unreasonable and not supported by probable cause. The idea that this program might be used as a tool for tyranny ignores the fact that so long as the technology exists it can be used as a tool for tyranny. The police have guns that can be easily used to shoot innocent people, but that doesn’t provide an argument for disarming the police.

Vilsack is right that this whole issue is politically dangerous for the Democrats, and keeps the focus on national security where Bush is at his strongest. However, the “netroots” activists have firmly taken control of the Democratic Party, and they won’t rest until the Democrats have pushed themselves far out of the mainstream.

By a vote of 58-42, Samuel Alito is the newest Associate Justice of the United States Supreme Court.

Yes, I’ll be liveblogging the State of the Union address tonight. I’m that crazy dedicated. I may even try the VodkaPundit method of having a few, ahem, adult beverages at the same time. Although, I really doubt my liver would last it through the first 20 minutes if I tried this.

What does Bush need to say tonight? I’m with Jeff Goldstein when he says that Bush’s ratings decline is largely due to passivity in the face of relentless Democratic negativism. Bush’s base, and I’m certainly part of that, was rightly pissed at Bush’s idiotic selection of Harriet Miers, his inadequate handling of Hurricane Katrina, and most of all his apparent unwillingness to get out in front of this war. The biggest mistake a politician can make is to let his or her enemies take the political initiative, and Bush has done that. When he strikes back on the war, when he lays it straight to the American people, his numbers go up.

On domestic issues, Bush has also ceded the initiative. The numbers for the economy are relatively healthy even despite a weak fourth quarter. Unemployment remains low. Productivity remains high. The Dow is above 10,000 again. Yet people’s perceptions of the economy are uniformly negative because the media has shaped that perception. People are relatively content with their position, but they’ve been convinced that everyone else is miserable. The best political communicators, like Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had the ability to inspire the nation. Bush isn’t in the league of either, but he can revive his “ownership society” agenda that was utterly dropped in 2005 and actually try and defend it this time. For instance, the Republicans made a key mistake in the Social Security reform battle - they pained it as a crisis, then they never fought for it. If it was a crisis, why wasn’t it at the top of the agenda? The Republicans let the Democrats and pressure groups like the AARP define the situation with silly attack ads and disingenuous arguments. Had the GOP stuck to its guns, been unified, and not backed off, Social Security reform would have likely passed. Instead, they got distracted and lost the issue - making it that much harder to revive it later. This nation needs to reform its entitlement systems - not just Social Security, but Medicaid and Medicare as well. If it can’t be done when the GOP has a majority in both houses of Congress and controls the White House, then the GOP has a serious problem.

That’s what President Bush needs to do. He needs to both put himself above the fray and set forth an agenda. The American people are rightly sick and tired of the constant and idiotic partisanship in Washington. They’re sick and tired of the constant sniping, the stupid attacks, the constant negativity, and the corruption on both sides of the aisle. While Bush’s approvals are weak (although Rassmussen has them at 50%, which seems to be a bit of an outlier), the approval ratings for Congress are abysmal. Bush needs to come out in favor of limiting earmarks, enforcing fiscal discipline, and cutting government fraud and waste. He needs to challenge Congress to do better and pass an agenda for the American people rather than shoving more pork into the system.

This will be one of the more critical speeches of Bush’s tenure in office. The war is at a crucial juncture in which the fighting has died down, but we still have a considerable amount of work to do. Bush has an uphill climb in restoring his agenda to the public forefront after a year of continuous Democratic attacks. He has a press that hates him with the fire of a thousand suns and will spin everything towards the negative. He faces a Democratic Party that is coming off the rails and an uncertain Republican leadership.

Bush is at his best when he’s getting down to the heart of the matter. He’s at this best when he’s connecting with the American people. Last year’s SOTU had the indelible image of an Iraqi mother and an American mother who both suffered greatly in this war reaching out to each other in a show of solidarity - one of the best SOTU moments in recent history. Bush needs to continually remind us all that we are still at war, we still have challenges ahead, but the way to win both abroad and at home is not by engaging in partisan attacks, but by working together as Americans.

President Bush came into office promising to be a “uniter, not a divider”, but events have left this country more divided than ever. The hatred from the left is palpable, the right is often clueless, and the American people are sick and tired of an increasingly dysfunctional political system that sees two sides fighting like cranky two-year-olds. Someone has to stand above the fray, and Bush has that opportunity tonight. We’ll see if he’s able to make the best of it.