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	<title>Comments on: Mistaking Bravado For Strength</title>
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	<link>http://jayreding.com/archives/2006/02/05/mistaking-bravado-for-strength/</link>
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		<title>By: Nicholas MacDonald</title>
		<link>http://jayreding.com/archives/2006/02/05/mistaking-bravado-for-strength/comment-page-1/#comment-156406</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas MacDonald</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2006 15:53:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jayreding.com/archives/2006/02/05/mistaking-bravado-for-strength/#comment-156406</guid>
		<description>Rob:

I didn&#039;t say I didn&#039;t support knocking out their reactors or missile facilities in a pre-emptive strike.  I don&#039;t want Iran to have nuclear weapons.  But even if they had them, I doubt they&#039;d use them as anything more than a bargaining chip.

The real reason they want nukes?  They don&#039;t want to be Iraq&#039;d.  They know that if they have nukes, we won&#039;t go near them.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Rob:</p>
<p>I didn&#8217;t say I didn&#8217;t support knocking out their reactors or missile facilities in a pre-emptive strike.  I don&#8217;t want Iran to have nuclear weapons.  But even if they had them, I doubt they&#8217;d use them as anything more than a bargaining chip.</p>
<p>The real reason they want nukes?  They don&#8217;t want to be Iraq&#8217;d.  They know that if they have nukes, we won&#8217;t go near them.</p>
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		<title>By: Rob Ritchie</title>
		<link>http://jayreding.com/archives/2006/02/05/mistaking-bravado-for-strength/comment-page-1/#comment-156402</link>
		<dc:creator>Rob Ritchie</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2006 14:13:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jayreding.com/archives/2006/02/05/mistaking-bravado-for-strength/#comment-156402</guid>
		<description>Nicholas:

I hope you&#039;re right. Unfortunatly, you&#039;d be &quot;betting&quot; using hundreds of thousands of lives as stakes. The tables a little too steep for my tastes.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Nicholas:</p>
<p>I hope you&#8217;re right. Unfortunatly, you&#8217;d be &#8220;betting&#8221; using hundreds of thousands of lives as stakes. The tables a little too steep for my tastes.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas MacDonald</title>
		<link>http://jayreding.com/archives/2006/02/05/mistaking-bravado-for-strength/comment-page-1/#comment-156369</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas MacDonald</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2006 04:59:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jayreding.com/archives/2006/02/05/mistaking-bravado-for-strength/#comment-156369</guid>
		<description>Joe:

I&#039;d be willing to bet that for every &quot;true believer&quot; among the Iranian ruling party, there&#039;s at least one cynic, if not two.  And those cynics aren&#039;t going to want their state blown to pieces.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joe:</p>
<p>I&#8217;d be willing to bet that for every &#8220;true believer&#8221; among the Iranian ruling party, there&#8217;s at least one cynic, if not two.  And those cynics aren&#8217;t going to want their state blown to pieces.</p>
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		<title>By: Joe Forrest</title>
		<link>http://jayreding.com/archives/2006/02/05/mistaking-bravado-for-strength/comment-page-1/#comment-156367</link>
		<dc:creator>Joe Forrest</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2006 03:58:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jayreding.com/archives/2006/02/05/mistaking-bravado-for-strength/#comment-156367</guid>
		<description>There is a reason why MAD worked so well against USSR. Under soviet secular dogma, the only thing that exists is the state. The state is what its citizens lived, worked and died for. There is no before or after life. Therefore, state protection was paramount.

Iran is fundamentally different. Securing the after life is paramount. The Iranian mindset is more likely to accept a few barbaric acts if it secures the after life, even at the expense of the Iranian state.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is a reason why MAD worked so well against USSR. Under soviet secular dogma, the only thing that exists is the state. The state is what its citizens lived, worked and died for. There is no before or after life. Therefore, state protection was paramount.</p>
<p>Iran is fundamentally different. Securing the after life is paramount. The Iranian mindset is more likely to accept a few barbaric acts if it secures the after life, even at the expense of the Iranian state.</p>
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		<title>By: Nicholas MacDonald</title>
		<link>http://jayreding.com/archives/2006/02/05/mistaking-bravado-for-strength/comment-page-1/#comment-156355</link>
		<dc:creator>Nicholas MacDonald</dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Feb 2006 02:03:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.jayreding.com/archives/2006/02/05/mistaking-bravado-for-strength/#comment-156355</guid>
		<description>Ahmadi-Nejad isn&#039;t as potentially dangerous as many are making him out to be.  The nature of the Iranian political system isn&#039;t the same as Saddam&#039;s Iraq or Kim Jong Il&#039;s North Korea; Ahmadi-Nejad is practically a figurehead compared to either Kim or Saddam.  The country has a one-party but functional parliament which has axed a considerable number of Ahmadi-Nejad&#039;s initiatives; on top of that, there&#039;s a whole cabal of Ayatollas that can check his power, and they&#039;re not about to let their country be wiped off the map on a quixotic and stupid quest to demolish Israel.  Many analysts think that the only reason that the Ayatollahs are letting Ahmadi-Nejad get away with the rhetoric he&#039;s using is because it&#039;s only that; it&#039;s popular with the people at a time when the current regime is weakening.

All that said, I certainly don&#039;t want Iran to have nuclear weapons, and would hardly be opposed to pelting their nuclear facilities with Tomahawks.  But keep it in perspective; it&#039;s just sabre-rattling.  It&#039;s as likely that Iran would lauch a bomb at Tel Aviv as China will invade Taiwan or NK will nuke Seoul.  Ahmadi-Nejad is far too cynical for such a quest; and even if he is a true believer, there are enough cynics in his government to stand in his way.</description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ahmadi-Nejad isn&#8217;t as potentially dangerous as many are making him out to be.  The nature of the Iranian political system isn&#8217;t the same as Saddam&#8217;s Iraq or Kim Jong Il&#8217;s North Korea; Ahmadi-Nejad is practically a figurehead compared to either Kim or Saddam.  The country has a one-party but functional parliament which has axed a considerable number of Ahmadi-Nejad&#8217;s initiatives; on top of that, there&#8217;s a whole cabal of Ayatollas that can check his power, and they&#8217;re not about to let their country be wiped off the map on a quixotic and stupid quest to demolish Israel.  Many analysts think that the only reason that the Ayatollahs are letting Ahmadi-Nejad get away with the rhetoric he&#8217;s using is because it&#8217;s only that; it&#8217;s popular with the people at a time when the current regime is weakening.</p>
<p>All that said, I certainly don&#8217;t want Iran to have nuclear weapons, and would hardly be opposed to pelting their nuclear facilities with Tomahawks.  But keep it in perspective; it&#8217;s just sabre-rattling.  It&#8217;s as likely that Iran would lauch a bomb at Tel Aviv as China will invade Taiwan or NK will nuke Seoul.  Ahmadi-Nejad is far too cynical for such a quest; and even if he is a true believer, there are enough cynics in his government to stand in his way.</p>
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