Jay Reding.com

Two-Time Loser

The Fix is reporting that John Kerry is planning to run for the White House again in 2008. Apparently the term “glutton for punishment” isn’t one that’s known around the Kerry household.

2008 will definitely be an interesting year. The GOP has two “superstar” candidates who have a very strong chance of running: John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Both have trouble with the GOP base, but would clean any Democrat in the general election, and both could assuage evangelical concerns enough to make it through the primary season. If the House and/or Senate falls to the Democrats this year, their chances are likely to increase.

On the Democratic side, the slate is extremely weak. You have Hillary Clinton, who is loved by many Democrats but hated by the far left and non-Democrats. You have losers Al Gore and John Kerry who both lost elections that they probably should have won. You have Mark Warner, who appears promising but doesn’t exactly set voters heart’s afire. You have also-rans like Wesley Clark, Tom Vilsack, and others. Barack Obama is too inexperienced and has the detriment of being a Senator. Tom Daschle — well, don’t make me laugh.

Two years is a long time in politics, but the Democrats are going to have a problem coming up with a decent candidate. In fact, if the Democrats win in 2006 it’s going to make 2008 harder as the radical left will take it as vindication, and become even more influential in a party that’s already well outside the American mainstream. The Republicans are weak this year, but if they shape up by 2008 it could be an electoral rout.

4 responses to “Two-Time Loser”

  1. Mark says:

    “2008 will definitely be an interesting year. The GOP has two “superstar” candidates who have a very strong chance of running: John McCain and Rudy Giuliani. Both have trouble with the GOP base, but would clean any Democrat in the general election”

    McCain is probably the real deal, but he has the unique distinction of being a guy loathed by the GOP base more than many Democrats….AND being propped up by independent voters who loathe most of McCain’s positions on issues. Still, McCain would be a formidable nominee since Presidential elections have become all about superficial imagery of leadership and “plain-spokenness”, where McCain stands tall above the crowd. Giuliani’s support among Democrats, Republicans and independents is a mile wide and an inch thick, and his popularity remains sky-high only as long as he’s out of sight and five years removed from a disgraced career in public service. It would be disastrous for the GOP if they got stuck with this guy. Given the inevitability of a strong third-party challenge from the right, a Giuliani candidacy would turn Mississippi and Alabama into swing states.

    On the Democratic side, John Edwards is poised to score some impressive early primary victories. A ticket headed by Edwards is one that scares the hell out of Republicans. On paper, the best Democratic candidate is New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, but I don’t see much of an opening for him right now.

  2. Nicq MacDonald says:

    Mark:

    If you think Richardson is potentially a strong candidate, you don’t know dick about Richardson, or New Mexico politics. The guy is more scandal-ridden than his mentor (Bill Clinton), goes through NM budgets like water trying to lure sexy industries and prop up Medicaid, and generally just oozes a kind of populist sleaziness. He’s an American caudillo, one oil rig short of a Chavez.

    He’s fairly popular here, and will win the next election handily, mainly due to the fact that Dendahl, his opponent, is a moron. (I don’t say that a politician is a moron lightly, but any western Republican who manages to LOSE the NRA endorsement to his opponent and calls the state’s school teachers “communists” clearly rides the short bus. The fact that he can’t make any momentum against a man with as many weaknesses as Richardson proves his incompetence).

    (And, for the record, I live in Albuquerque, so I’m knee-deep in NM politics.)

    No, Richardson is a liability for the Democratic party. The best candidates the party has are Warner and Gore; my personal vote would be for Warner, as the guy seems to scream “competent!” in the same way Richardson screams “sleaze!”

  3. Mark says:

    Nicq, clearly “I don’t know dick about New Mexico politics”. I knew there was some kind of scandal attached to Richardson, but nothing of the magnitude you mentioned. I’ll take your word for it that he has too much baggage to be elected President, but you’re the first person I’ve ever seen with such visceral disdain for the man. And is there any Republican in New Mexico, aside from Heather Wilson perhaps, would be able to beat Richardson in this year’s gubernatorial race? Why doesn’t every other New Mexican see what you see?

  4. Seth says:

    First, you’re forgetting that McCain and Guiliani will most likely split the moderate portion of the base. I’ve heard from Republicans on more than one occasion that they could never vote for a pro-choicer like Guiliani (Read: A northest liberal like Guiliani). A strong conservative challenger, probably from the South, could pull off an upset. Newt Gingrich should be your worst nightmare.

    You’ve also got the problem that if things keep going they way they’re going, Republicans in 2008 are going to have to run away from the fact that they’re, well, Republicans. That’s fodder for flip-flop ads.

    Last–Warner is getting better. You talk about Barack’s inexperience, but let me introduce you to a guy named George W. Bush. I’ve seen Edwards speak a few times recently, and he is becoming quite masterful at both energizing the base around our core Democratic principles while simultaneously striking a tone that resonates among the moderates in the midwest. And then we have a few dark horses out there–Gov. Schweitzer of Montana is a populist, larger-than-life Westerner who walks with a swagger and connects well with conservative voters.

    You’re buying the media hype with McCain, Guiliani and Hillary without looking at it. I’m prepared for you to think this is a cakewalk, though.