Jay Reding.com

Warner Drops Out

Former VA Governor Mark Warner is saying he won’t run for President in 2008, citing family concerns. Warner was on the shortlist for 2008, and his departure makes a Hillary Clinton run all the more inevitable.

It’s not surprising that someone wouldn’t want to go through the public tarring and feathering that happens during a Presidential run, and there have been a number of able candidates who have decided not to take on that Herculean task. It’s also probably true that Warner crunched the numbers: he’s an able fundraiser, but he’d have to fight against established Democratic interests, especially Senator Clinton. He may be a good candidate, but ascending to the nomination is no easy task.

Two big winners emerge from this: Barack Obama and the GOP. Obama because it’s clear he’s thinking about taking Warner’s title of being the “anti-Hillary” and who doesn’t have the baggage of being a failed White House candidate. The GOP wins because Obama’s inexperience and liberalism mean that he probably won’t win, and the chances of Hillary becoming the Dem nominee in 2008 just went up even more. Short of Hillary crashing and burning, the far left’s hatred of her isn’t enough to sink her candidacy in 2008, and her fundraising skills ensure that she’ll be in a nearly unassailable position by the start of the next campaign season.

3 responses to “Warner Drops Out”

  1. Mark says:

    At this point, the only people professing the certainty of Hillary’s nomination are the Republican partisans who desperately want it to be so. It’s unfortunate that Warner has removed himself from the Presidential running as I really would have to liked to have heard more of him, but the real beneficiary from this is John Edwards, who I would argue is now the frontrunner for the 08 nomination. That prospect leaves urine pools beneath the pant legs of terrified Republicans who’ve been bracing themselves for an easy race against Hillary.

  2. Jay Reding says:

    Edwards? Give me a break!

    First of all, Clinton leads in every reputable (read: non-online) straw poll out there. Nobody comes close. It’s unquestionable that she’ll run, she has a war chest that nobody can match, and the media fawns over her like she was the Second Coming.

    Edwards folksy populism isn’t going to carry him far. He was an also-ran in 2004, he couldn’t help Kerry win the South then, and he’s a lightweight on the issues. I don’t think any Republicans are really worried about an Edwards run in 2008, especially if either McCain or Giuliani end up being the nominee. Even a mid-tier candidate like Romney could probably beat Edwards. He’s a cover boy, not a Presidential-level politician.

  3. Mark says:

    “First of all, Clinton leads in every reputable (read: non-online) straw poll out there. Nobody comes close. It’s unquestionable that she’ll run, she has a war chest that nobody can match, and the media fawns over her like she was the Second Coming.”

    Not even Hillary’s most ardent supporters think she can win. The Des Moines Register poll last month showing Hillary being the only Democratic contender who stands to get defeated by EVERY top-tier and second-tier Republican candidate likely ruined her chances for 2008. Like GOP frontrunners McCain and Giuliani, Hillary’s support is a mile wide and an inch thick. Every Democrat in the country is searching for alternatives at this point, just as they did in 2004 when you proclaimed Howard Dean unbeatable. Picking the Democrats’ Presidential candidates doesn’t seem to be your strong suit.

    “Edwards folksy populism isn’t going to carry him far. He was an also-ran in 2004…he’s a lightweight on the issues”

    Perhaps. But we only saw John Edwards-lite in 2004 because Kerry didn’t want to be upstaged by the smooth-talker. I was of the same mind as you after 2004 that Edwards’ political career was over. But it’s pretty clear he’s putting more effort into his ’08 run than anyone else, and that could pan out, particularly with a 2008 Republican nomination that will almost assuredly divide the party.

    “I don’t think any Republicans are really worried about an Edwards run in 2008, especially if either McCain or Giuliani end up being the nominee.”

    If Giuliani is the GOP nominee, Edwards stands poised to win every Southern state. Even McCain could implode in Edwards’ backyard if Edwards plays his cards right. Southerners are rightly enraged about McCain’s immigration platform, and if Edwards can position himself to the right of McCain on immigration, he stands to pick off a handful of Southern states. You’re actually more right about Romney. I think he’d be one of the strongest candidates on the Republican roster, and would probably beat Edwards.