On the other hand, GOP pollster David Winston notes that the recent rounds of pessimistic polls show a massive oversampling of Democrats. For instance, the last Newsweek poll shows an 11-point Democratic advantage in partisan ID. That’s at least double of what the realistic figure should be. It’s quite possible, even probable that the Democrats are polling ahead of the Republicans in partisan self-description. However, a double-digit lead is highly unlikely.
There have been a lot of biased polls released lately — for instance, the Minnesota Poll continues to be DFL propaganda rather than a serious poll, and some of the national polls are likely off by a considerable margin.
The GOP has two big advantages coming into Election Day: they have plenty of money to spend, and they have the best voter-targeting and GOTV system in American political history. Those two things may not be enough on their own, but they certainly make a huge difference in terms of electoral performance.
The polls may show a “sea of blue” but the only poll that really matters won’t be conducted for a few weeks — and that’s the poll that always seems to favor the GOP more so than the ones that come before.