Jay Reding.com

Could Burns Pull It Off?

One of the most endangered Republican Senate incumbents is Conrad Burns, who has been running behind Democratic challenger John Tester for some time. However, a new Mason-Dixon poll has the race within the margin of error, and the movement from the last poll using the same company (and, I assume, the same basic methodology) shows the movement on Burns’ side.

More to the point, Burns’ war chest is 3 times that of Tester, which gives him a big advantage in the waning days of the race.

Burns has been hurt by his association with Jack Abramoff, but it looks like his fortunes are making a late turn for the better. Montana is a very conservative state, and John Tester has the disadvantage of having his name being linked to the left wing of the Democratic Party. An endorsement by the Kossacks doesn’t carry much weight on the Montana prairies. As Montana voters go to the polls, would they risk putting the Senate in the hands of liberal Democrats? I would expect that while much of Burns’ support is indeed soft, he’s not out of this race yet. Tester has run a stronger campaign that I would have predicted, and Burns has made many crucial mistakes. However, Tester has yet to seal the deal, and with time and money running out, this race could go either way.

10 responses to “Could Burns Pull It Off?”

  1. Seth says:

    Peace out, Conrad

  2. Mark says:

    “More to the point, Burns’ war chest is 3 times that of Tester, which gives him a big advantage in the waning days of the race.”

    Money means nothing in Montana because advertising is so cheap. I doubt there’s anyone in the state who is insufficiently aware of Tester’s candidacy for lack of exposure.

    “Montana is a very conservative state”

    It’s a very libertarian state, not conservative in the context of today’s paternalistic Republican Party. Perhaps that’s why Montana has a Democratic Governor, a Democratic State Senate, a state House where the Dems and GOP are at parity, a senior Democratic Senator, and two weeks from today, a junior Democratic Senator as well.

    “An endorsement by the Kossacks doesn’t carry much weight on the Montana prairies.”

    Neither does a Tester endorsement by the Kossacks carry any weight for Burns as less than 1% of voters on the Montana prairies are likely to know what the hell a “Kossack” is.

    “As Montana voters go to the polls, would they risk putting the Senate in the hands of liberal Democrats?”

    Considering that their state government is literally dominated by Democrats, it doesn’t seem likely that line will work in Montana. In fact, polls indicate that line doesn’t seem to be working anywhere this cycle.

    “Tester has run a stronger campaign that I would have predicted”

    Who could have predicted that Tester guy was the real deal? Oh that’s right. Me.

    “this race could go either way”

    No it can’t. The incumbent is trailing and has never seen his support rise about 43% in virtually any poll. He’s done for.

  3. Jay Reding says:

    Considering that their state government is literally dominated by Democrats, it doesn’t seem likely that line will work in Montana. In fact, polls indicate that line doesn’t seem to be working anywhere this cycle.

    I rather doubt that the typical Montana Democrat is much like a Nancy Pelosi or a Harry Reid…

    No it can’t. The incumbent is trailing and has never seen his support rise about 43% in virtually any poll. He’s done for.

    That’s probably right, although the only poll that really matters is Election Day, and a state like Montana is difficult to poll. I wouldn’t necessarily be shocked if Burns ekes out a small win.

  4. Seth says:

    Jay Reding, the guy who says the MN Gov race isn’t that close, MN-06 isn’t that close, and now also the only person in America who wont “necessarily be shocked” if Burns holds his seat in Montana.

  5. Mark says:

    “I rather doubt that the typical Montana Democrat is much like a Nancy Pelosi or a Harry Reid…”

    Take away the Brian Schweitzer’s beard and Jon Tester’s flattop and you have pretty progressive Democrats…perhaps not in line with Pelosi, but certainly in tune with the western progressivism of Harry Reid, who has long been a moderate Democrat and still is no matter how much the GOP tries to rewrite the script on him since becoming his party’s Senate leader.

  6. Nicq MacDonald says:

    All I can say is this- Tester bears a striking resemblence to Meat Loaf. And, as a fan of The Rocky Horror Picture Show and Fight Club, that’s sufficient to win my vote. Fortunately, I don’t live in Montana.

  7. Jay Reding says:

    All I can say is this- Tester bears a striking resemblence to Meat Loaf.

    Oh dear God, that’s who he looks like. That had been bothering me for a while…

    Of course, now I can’t look at his picture without thinking of man tits…

  8. Will says:

    That flattop is awesome, though.

  9. Seth says:

    Get used to saying “Senator Meat Loaf.”

  10. ha ha says:

    Enjoy!