One of the most endangered Republican Senate incumbents is Conrad Burns, who has been running behind Democratic challenger John Tester for some time. However, a new Mason-Dixon poll has the race within the margin of error, and the movement from the last poll using the same company (and, I assume, the same basic methodology) shows the movement on Burns’ side.
More to the point, Burns’ war chest is 3 times that of Tester, which gives him a big advantage in the waning days of the race.
Burns has been hurt by his association with Jack Abramoff, but it looks like his fortunes are making a late turn for the better. Montana is a very conservative state, and John Tester has the disadvantage of having his name being linked to the left wing of the Democratic Party. An endorsement by the Kossacks doesn’t carry much weight on the Montana prairies. As Montana voters go to the polls, would they risk putting the Senate in the hands of liberal Democrats? I would expect that while much of Burns’ support is indeed soft, he’s not out of this race yet. Tester has run a stronger campaign that I would have predicted, and Burns has made many crucial mistakes. However, Tester has yet to seal the deal, and with time and money running out, this race could go either way.