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Cardin/Steele Tied?

A SurveyUSA poll supposedly shows the Maryland Senate race in a 47-47 tie. Now, one should take this with a grain of salt as the internals haven’t yet been released, but this result doesn’t seem to surprise me all that much. Steele has run a strong, smart campaign against Cardin. Steele has the backing of several influential African-American leaders. If he can get even a small slice of the black vote, he has a strong chance at winning. While the polls have tended to show Cardin well ahead, I’m not entirely convinced that the polls are right on this one. Steele could very well pull a surprise upset.

The whole electoral landscape keeps shifting. I was sure that Tester had it in Montana, but it looks like voters in that state are having some reservations about having the Senate potential go under Democratic control. Kean isn’t out of the race in New Jersey. Talent is still within the margin of error in Missouri. Corker seems to be pulling ahead of Ford in Tennessee. The numbers would seem to indicate that this race will be down to the wire in several key states.

It’s all going to come down to organization and turnout — fortunately the GOP is excellent at both. The question is will it be enough? That question may have to wait until Election Day or even beyond if the races continue to be as close as they are.

4 responses to “Cardin/Steele Tied?”

  1. Mark says:

    Steele hasn’t necessarily run a “smart, strong campaign” against Cardin, but Cardin has been completely awful and has failed to convey his message to African-American voters. After the endorsements from Prince George’s County’s black board members this week, I’m predicting an upset for Steele here, with black voters choosing race over party. They’ll be kicking themselves for the next six years, however. But he needs more than a “small slice” of the black vote to win Maryland. He needs 25%. I think he can get it.

    Still waiting for your coverage on Mike Hatch’s meltdown.

  2. Jay Reding says:

    Still waiting for your coverage on Mike Hatch’s meltdown.

    No big surprise there… Hatch does not have thick enough skin to succeed in politics, and it was only a matter of time for that to show — just like it did every other time that he’s run. I’ve talked to plenty of DFLers who dislike him for the same reason.

  3. Seth says:

    Montana–a state that voted for Clinton, has a Democratic Governor and a Democratically-controlled state legislature, a state that has elected two Republican Senators since becoming a state–is nervous about a Democratically-controlled Senate.

    Simply stunning political insight.

  4. LR says:

    Maryland is a blue state and Cardin will win, the same way Menendez will win in NJ.