OK, so it doesn’t, but that’s a fair reading of the latest Minnesota Poll which shows Hatch ahead of Pawlenty by 45-40 with a 3.2% MOE. The Minnesota Poll is always as accurate as a DFL push-poll would be, and undercounting Republican strength by 5-10% is not only possible, but almost a certainty when dealing with the Star-Tribune‘s infamously inaccurate polling.
Hatch’s meltdown (calling a reporter who dared to ask a difficult question a “Republican whore”) only further cements the idea that Hatch is a lose cannon, in comparison to Pawlenty’s “Minnesota nice” reputation. Hatch’s running mate, Judi Dutcher was caught not knowing a thing about the ethanol-based E85 fuel which is a major issue for Minnesota agriculture, which shows just how terminally unprepared she is. Most of Hatch’s support (30%) comes from hardcore DFL partisans who hate Tim Pawlenty because of the “R” behind his name. 14% of Hatch supporters are swayable, and I’m guessing that because of the partisan nature of the Minnesota Poll, those numbers are a lot bigger than the poll indicates.
Mike Hatch has shown his true colors, which is not going to help him with Minnesota voters. When it comes down to actually going into the precinct and voting, Minnesota voters are going to look back at the last four years in which Minnesota’s economy has done well and consider which candidate reflects the values of this state best, and vote for Pawlenty. Hatch is a lose cannon who deserves to lose. We’ve already had one thin-skinned governor with Ventura, the last thing we need is someone with the same temperament who doesn’t look as good in a feather boa. The fact that Hatch is within the MOE in the most biased poll in the country only shows how badly he’s likely to do.
I suspect that you’re correct. If the Minnesota Poll has you leading by only five points (think Walter Mondale in 2002), you’re in deep trouble. And I think most of this poll was administered before Hatch’s meltdown. I haven’t been in the Twin Cities media market, so I have no ability to measure how big the story was up there. In the Rochester-Austin media market where my parents live and where I’ve been this weekend, the story is completely non-existent in local media.
The poll indicated that Hatch and Pawlenty were tied in the suburbs outside of Hennepin and Ramsey. This is ugly news for Hatch because it was those affluent swing voters who swung hard to Norm Coleman after the Wellstone Memorial fiasco in 2002. They’re also the most likely to abandon Hatch after his alleged telephone outburst. Still, I wonder if this will have the impact I originally anticipated it would have. It’s never good to be making those kind of headlines the weekend before the election, but the fact that Hatch challenged the newspaper to release the audio tape to confirm or deny their story, and they refused to do so, indicates they may be guilty of what Hatch charged them of being. It doesn’t look good when an organization like that makes an allegation but refuses to prove it. Hatch would have been wise to hit hard on this point as a reinforcement of his point that he’s being set up to fail by organized Republicans hitmen.
As for Judi Dutcher’s embarrassing E-85 gaffe, you’re grasping. When reminded of what E-85 was by the questioner, the bell in her head rang and she was familiar with it, if not necessarily possessing the knowledge necessary to be an E-85 leader. But to suggest Dutcher is “terminally unprepared” based on that is silly opportunistic blather on your part. The story would have went away in a few hours if not for Hatch’s ham-handed George Allen-esque means of damage control.
With that said, Hatch is playing defense when his only path to victory was coasting past the finish line on partisan coattails. I’m betting against him at this point.
If growth slower than the rest of the counry, a job loss in September that was the third-largest for a single month in state history, and 100,000 fewer Minnesotans without health care than four yeara ago is an economy doing well, you’ve got some economics courses to take.
Peace out, Pawlenty!