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MN-1 Looking Good For GOP

Word is that the Gutknecht/Walz race is not shaping out to be as close as the prognosticators had it. Now, keep in mind that early reports like the ones I’m hearing are unreliable, so anything can change, but it looks like my predictions that the race won’t be that close are roughly on track.

MN-1 is becoming less reliably conservative, but a hotbed of liberalism it’s not. It’s difficult to sample a House race, and it’s even more difficult to sample a House race in a quite heterogeneous district spread out over a wide geographical area like MN-1 (which basically encompasses Southern Minnesota). There are a lot of conservative rural voters who aren’t likely to answer pollster’s phone calls but vote as a matter of obligation.

Gutknecht was supposed to be running last election cycle as well, and I remember some dire predictions for him in 2002. The adage to remember here is to always keep in mind that incumbency is a powerful thing, especially in a rural district like the First.

We’ll see if those rumors continue to play out as the night goes on…

UPDATE: Just in case, if you’re a Gutknecht voter, don’t forget to vote. It could still be close, and it’s always better to be safe than sorry.

4 responses to “MN-1 Looking Good For GOP”

  1. Mark says:

    What’s your source?

  2. Jay Reding says:

    It’s from a national GOP source, so take it with a grain of salt if you like.

  3. Mark says:

    Some exit polls, for whatever they’re worth, look ugly for Republican Senate candidates….

    http://mydd.com/story/2006/11/7/174759/728

  4. Jay Reding says:

    Some exit polls, for whatever they’re worth

    After 2004, I’d say “not much”…