Jay Reding.com

National Exit Poll Leaks

There have been a few leaks of national exit poll data — no surprise there. So far, it doesn’t look good for the GOP. The Corner has the numbers, although NRO is having some serious technical difficulties.

Exit polls are unreliable and tend to favor the Democrats. We’ve already been warned about this — so all this says is what one particularly unreliable datapoint is saying. Everything is still in play, and it’s far too premature for the fat lady to start doing her warmups.

UPDATE: “Anything within 7 is probably a dead heat” — that seems about right to me. All these races are in play, and the exit polls aren’t worth anything. The fat lady is still firmly in her green room…

UPDATE: Mark Blumenthal (AKA the Mystery Pollster) has a good piece on why exit polling is so inaccurate.

One response to “National Exit Poll Leaks”

  1. Mark says:

    A fair warning. With that said, the exit poll data doesn’t seem out of line with recent polls, if a bit optimistic for Dems. The race to continue to watch is Missouri. If the exit polls are Democrat-favored as they were in 2004, McCaskill soft 50-48 advantage may be insufficient. Should be an exciting night.