Jay Reding.com

Saddam Hussein, the Butcher of Baghdad now burns in Hell.

The greatest travesty of this man’s death is that he killed so many, yet we can only kill him once. Still, his actions were so far beyond the bounds of humanity that his death was necessary. Such evil should never be tolerated. The Hussein regime systematically brutalized the Iraqi people — nothing we can do can bring back what he stole from millions of Iraqis, but we can ensure that this monster will never cause harm again.

Thus, always, to tyrants.

As is my annual tradition, I’m releasing my inner Nostradamus and coming up with a few predictions for the coming year…

Iran will announce that they have completed work on a nuclear weapon and will conduct nuclear tests, showing once again how the intelligence community got it wrong.

However, Ahmadinejad will face great political backlash as the Iranian economy begins to collapse.

Iran and the US will enter a state of de facto war as Iranian naval vessels blockade the Straights of Hormuz and more Iranian fighters stream into Iraq.

President Bush will announce significant troop withdrawals from Iraq, as the situation in Iraq grows even more dire. His attempt to “surge” troops into Baghdad will be too little, too late, and not long enough to make a difference.

The al-Maliki government will collapse when SCIRI and the Sadrists both walk out.

The biggest success in the War on Terror will be when Ethopian troops take down the Islamist government in Somalia in a decisive victory.

As a consequence of the above, the US will begin training Kurdish peshmerga to fight al-Qaeda as US troops withdraw.

Apple will release a cell phone that runs a stripped-down version of Mac OS X, creating the hottest gadget since the iPod.

President Bush’s approval ratings will stay low, but not lower than they are now. (Which granted, isn’t saying much at this point.)

The Democratic Congress will push through a substantial tax raise, and the Bush Administration will capitulate. The stock markets will plunge in response.

Hizballah will continue their reign of terror in Lebanon, as Syrian forces take control of the country once again.

More critics of Vladimir Putin will find themselves dead.

Socialist Ségolène Royal will defeat Nicolas Sarkozy in the French elections.

Barack Obama will continue to flirt with running for the Presidency throughout 2007, just to keep Hillary guessing.

John McCain will emerge as the front-runner in the 2008 GOP race while Rudy continues to keep everyone guessing as to what his intentions really are.

I finally managed to snag one of the ultra-popular Nintendo Wii consoles today, being lucky enough to wonder into a Target an hour after a shipment had arrived and catching one of the last 3 in stock. The Wii, despite having a rather silly name, is just freakin’ fun. The graphics aren’t fantastic, although Wii Sports has its charms, but what it lacks in graphical horsepower it makes up for it sheer entertainment value. Wii Sports is a great party game – Tennis and Baseball aren’t all that great, but Bowling, Golf, and especially Boxing do a great job of showing off the Wii’s motion-sensing controllers. It’s a great machine for people who aren’t hardcore gamers — it’s easy to pick up, it’s involving, and it’s entertaining. Nintendo zigged when the rest of the industry zagged towards HD graphics and nifty visuals, which are nice, but no substitute for good gameplay.

The Wii isn’t in the same league as the XBox 360 or the PS3 – but it is cheaper, more fun, and more accessible to non-gamers. That explains why the things keep selling out as soon as stores get a shipment – it really is something that takes gaming and gives it an innovative new spin.

Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have another round of golf waiting for me…

Power Line has some observations on the sale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune to a private equity group. The previous owners, McClatchy Co., bought the paper for $1.2 billion in 1998 — they sold it for only $530 million. Ostensibly, McClatchy sold the Strib to offset the taxable gains they incurred when they bought out the Knight-Ridder newspaper chain. However, it doesn’t take a genius to figure out that if you’re willing to sell something for less than half of the price you bought it, it’s not a valuable property.

The old newspaper industry is dying — dead-tree editions of the newspaper just aren’t selling enough to turn a profit these days. When the Strib was resorting to wallpapering their website with those gawdawful Denny Hecker ads, it was a sign that they were looking for any way they could to pay the bills. There are simply too many news sources around — sources that don’t have the endemic bias of the old media.

The Strib is unlikely to fold, but perhaps the new owners will provide it with more balance, more relevance, and more innovation.

Former President Gerald Ford has passed away at the age of 93. Ford had the unenviable task of leading the country in the wake of the Watergate scandals, and he did it with integrity. His decision to pardon Richard Nixon, which probably destroyed his Presidential career, was the right choice. He handled his difficult period in office with integrity and helped America move forward during a difficult time.

RIP

As is my tradition, each year my 2006 predictions:

Apple will release a widescreen Intel-based iBook at MacWorld this year.

I was a off by a few months (the MacBook Pro debuted at MacWorld), but Apple did release the widescreen MacBook to great fanfare and excellent sales. It’s the laptop I’ve been using since buying one for law school in August, and I absolutely love it. A good number of my colleagues are also using them, which actually surprised me. There’s just no reason to buy a PC notebook when the MacBook is price competitive and can run Windows if need be. I’ve been an Apple convert for over two years now, and I wouldn’t go back for anything.

Alito will be handily confirmed to the Supreme Court.

Indeed he was. The idea of another jurist in the vein of Antonin Scalia warms my originalist heart — we’ll see if Alito “grows” in office or stays true to his jurisprudence.

Rick Santorum will lose to Bob Casey in PA, but by a narrower margin then one would think.

Indeed he did, but it was by as wide a margin as could be expected. Too bad, but as they say, there just isn’t room for good men in politics these days.

Saddam Hussein will be found guilty of genocide and sentenced to death by an Iraqi court.

Indeed he was, and indeed he was. Hell’s stoking the fires for this one.

The New York Times will abandon their TimesSelect experiment and realize that people won’t pay to read Maureen Dowd’s bleatings. In an ironic twist, the NYT will start a blog.

The Old Gray Liar Lady is experimenting in the blog world, but they haven’t gotten rid of the albatross of TimesSelect — despite the fact that it’s made NYT columnists even more irrelevant than they were before. Does anyone still care about Maureen Dowd anymore?

Video podcasting won’t take off. Video porn podcasting will.

Video podcasting is actually starting to take off — Amanda Congdon’s Rocketboom was quirky and unique before she was grabbed off by ABC. Video porncasting doesn’t seem to have taken off at all — apparently people still get their porn the old-fashioned way…

Downloadable TV will take off big-time as Apple announces a media center device capable of playing downloadable HD-quality video – shows like Battlestar Galactica will top 1,000,000 downloads before the end of the year.

Well, Apple did release TV shows on iTunes, including the excellent Battlestar Galactica remake. The “iTV” settop device debuts in 2007, although there’s no confirmation about HD.

Firefox’s market share will continue to rise.

Despite IE7, Firefox continues to gain market share…

Windows Vista will be released, but will see anemic sales. Meanwhile, Apple’s marketshare will continue to rise with the new Intel-based Macs.

Vista still isn’t out, and won’t be until January 30, 2007. (It’s available for business users, however). Apple’s market share has continued to rise, which I suspect will continue into 2007 as more people switch.

The balance of power in Congress will remain roughly where it is, but the GOP will lose a few House seats and at least 2 Senate seats.

Ugh, the GOP did lose, and they lost big. Granted, it was the sort of loss that’s historically typical for the governing party in a sixth-year election, but the fact that the Democrats didn’t win so much as the GOP royally screwed the pooch still doesn’t sit well. This was a critical election, and the GOP didn’t do what they needed to do. The future of this country is in the balance as it has been only at a few points before, and we’re on the precipice of seeing just how bad things can be.

Every candidate endorsed by Kos will lose.

“Netroots” candidates did surprisingly well, although that’s to be expected in a Democratic sweep. Of course, the relatively conservative candidates endorsed by Kos (such as Tester and Webb) are likely to cause the “netroots” some consternation over time.

Donald Rumsfeld will resign as Secretary of Defense by Spring. The Democrats, not able to control themselves, will threaten a filibuster of his replacement, causing their polling numbers to plummet.

Rumsfeld did resign, although after the election rather than before when it could have done more good for the GOP’s political fortunes. The Democrats didn’t do anything to Rumsfeld’s successor, Robert Gates, as they would have gotten no political hay over it.

By the end of 2006, women will represent a majority of bloggers.

Apparently they already were when I wrote that — the growth of blogging through sites like MySpace and Facebook have made blogging firmly part of the mainstream.

Iran will test a nuclear weapon.

Not yet, but 2007 could well be the year.

Israel will officially announce that they have nuclear weapons, and will state that any attack against Israel will result in nuclear retaliation.

Prime Minister Olmert virtually let it slip, but the worst-kept secret in international affairs remains just that — an official secret.

Al-Qaeda will shift their focus from Iraq to trying to provoke a war between Israel and the Arab world.

Al-Qaeda’s been rather quiet lately since Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi got blown to Hell. Other that their usual videotaped messages, we haven’t heard much of them — and even less of Osama bin Laden. In terms of operational capability, al-Qaeda’s probably at a low point. However, they remain dangerous, and they’re undoubtedly planning their next move.

Abu Mus’ab al-Zarqawi will commit suicide after being cornered by Iraqi troops along the Iraq/Syria border.

Instead, the butcher ended up getting a high-explosive telegram thanks to US air power.

President Emilie Lahoud of Lebanon will be forced to resign as Lebanon continues to fight back against Syria.

Instead, the war between Israel and Hizballah has ensured that the political situation in Lebanon has gone from hopeful to horrific. The tragedy of Lebanon is trying heart-wrenching as Iran and it’s Syrian puppets continue to wreak havoc in Lebanon, murdering those who are brave enough to oppose them.

Prime Minister Ariel Sharon will be reelected in Israel, but by a narrow margin, forcing him to work with Binyamin Netanyahu in a tension-filled coalition government.

Sharon’s illness turned Israeli politics on its head. His successor, Ehud Olmert did win, but instead of turning towards Likud, Olmert turned to the right-wing Yisrael Beitenu party of Avigdor Lieberman to keep their coalition. After the problems in Lebanon, it’s unsure how long his coalition will stay together.

Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad will be assassinated, with Iranian officials blaming Israel for his death. A more reformist leader will take his place, but Iran will remain largely totalitarian.

Ahmadinejad did take some political losses in the recent Iranian elections, which does indicate that his hold on power in Iran is waning, but he remains powerful, and the reformists remain only slightly more grounded than the madman of Tehran.

The Palestinian Authority will collapse as Fatah, Islamic Jihad, and Hizb’Allah end up fighting each other for control. Mahmoud Abbas will be forced to flee as members of his government are rounded up and killed. Israel will announce that they are sealing all borders with Gaza and the West Bank until the violence subsides.

It was Fatah and Hamas that ended up vying for control, but it appears that the anarchy in the Palestinian territories is still tearing that society apart. The Israelis have released much-needed cash to Abbas’ government in an effort to keep it afloat against Hamas, but even that may not be enough to prevent the violence from continuing to escalate.

Osama bin Laden will not be captured, nor will Ayman al-Zawahiri.

No surprise there.

The US GDP will grow at 3+% in 2006. The EU economy will barely grow at all. Western European companies will increasingly rely on outsourcing to Eastern Europe, causing the EU to try and stem the flow, creating an even wide chasm between East and West in the EU.

Interestingly enough, while US GDP growth was strong during the first quarter, the US economy has been slowing while the EU’s growth actually exceeded US growth in the third quarter. The Fed has been keeping interest rates steady while the ECB has been acting like a fiscal hawk. One of the biggest reasons for the disparity is the housing slowdown in the US which has been acting like an anchor on economic growth. The US’ fundamentals remain strong, but if energy prices and the housing market continue to hamper economic growth, the disparity could continue. The EU’s fundamentals remain weak, and their growth continues to be relatively low, but they did do better than expected.

The biggest hit movie of 2006? Forget Superman – think SNAKES ON A PLANE. That’s right – a movie about a plane with deadly snakes on it. If that isn’t pure cinema genius, what is?

Pure cinema genius? Perhaps… Box office success? Not even close.

Later, my predictions for 2007…

Jonah Goldberg has an excellent response to an ad hominem attack by Andrew Sullivan that exposes just why Sullivan’s descent into cheap invective is so distressing. As Goldberg puts it:

My blog posts are not debated sections to some party platform of the Third International, each syllable pregnant with tactical and ideological import. The old Andrew would recognize this.

But the new Andrew has a fevered and extremist mind. He takes the positions of zealots of all stripes that if you’re not part of the solution you’re part of the problem. There’s no space for not caring as much as he does, for not picking sides, for believing that the little platoons of life will fix problems without dragging the state into it or politicizing everything. So, even though I favor gay unions, shun the demonization of gays, ground my arguments against gay marriage firmly in small-c, skeptical conservative, Burkean arguments about the pace of change, and — as he knows — personally treat gays with nothing but respect, I am now nothing more than a nimble enabler of gay bigotry. Despite the plain and obvious meaning of my radio silence comment staring all fair-minded people in the face, he chooses to read my mind and paint me as some sort of Trotskyite strategist, terrified of exposing the internal contradictions of the “Christianist” movement. And, at the same time, he sees nothing wrong with demonizing me as morally stunted for taking a humane, rational, centrist position. Indeed, to the extent I have some grand strategy on the issue of homosexuality (though it is neither grand nor really a strategy so much as a sentiment) it is simply this: to vent some of the heat from the issue on both sides. But, yes, yes I am the extremist, cynically doing the bidding of other extremists.

Andrew Sullivan used to be one of the best spokespeople the gay rights movement had — he was persuasive, patient, and rational. The new Andrew Sullivan is none of those things — instead, he’s another vitriolic black-and-white fanatic who calls anyone who doesn’t agree with his position a “Christianist” — which despite his weak arguments to the contrary, is most assuredly an attempt to tie them in with Islamist radicals.

The fact that he refers to National Review Online editor Kathryn-Jean Lopez as a “theocrat,” dismissed all of Ramesh Ponnuru’s arguments in his book (unfortunately titled but still well-argued) Party of Death, and now is attacking Jonah Goldberg for taking what is a very reasonable and truly conservative position on the gay marriage issue all show why he’s such an extremist these days.

The more Sullivan speaks, the more opposition I tend to have towards gay marriage. If this is the way that gay marriage advocates act, then I’m not willing to support them. And I’m someone who was fine with the idea of civil unions and giving gay couples equitable rights to their straight counterparts. Yes, I have moral issues against homosexuality, but I have moral issues against a number of things that I don’t believe the government has any business regulating. However, the more and more it becomes clear that gay rights advocates want more than just equitable rights, but sweeping social change, the less I’m inclined to support them.

Cases like the recent New Jersey Supreme Court ruling in Lewis v. Harris make it clear that gradualism just doesn’t fly any more — states either have to outright ban gay marriages and civil unions, as Ohio did, or face the fact that the slippery slope is quite real and the sort of social gradualism that would make the issue of gay unions less contentious is now unavailable thanks to judicial activism. The sort of gradual social experimentation that could produce the sort of social change that a Burkean conservative would support isn’t palatable to radicals like Sullivan — he wants his recognition, and he wants it now.

When Sullivan starts attacking people who agree with him on key issues because they’re not vociferous enough for his tastes, he’s more likely to lose support than to gain it. This isn’t how you win people to your arguments, it’s how your alienate everyone who doesn’t already agree with you. The old Andrew Sullivan was wise enough to understand that, the new one seems not to care.