Jay Reding.com

Obama Puts His Hat In The Ring

Barack Obama is officially entering the 2008 race for the White House.

Politically, it’s a mistake for him. Obama has never had to deal with the stress of a truly competitive campaign, he’s never had to deal with concerted opposition researches digging up his past, and he’s running against one of the most ruthless political operatives in America today.

In others, he’s just jumped into the lion’s den.

As Politico notes, the public proctal exam that every candidate goes through is just beginning for Obama — he’s gotten a free ride thus far, but now that he’s officially in the race that ends. I have a feeling that once the heat is on, the Obama campaign will lose its luster very quickly, and Obama will see what could have been his front-runner status in 2012 destroyed by jumping the gun.

5 responses to “Obama Puts His Hat In The Ring”

  1. Mark says:

    Obama’s appeal is built entirely on his charisma and the inexplicable assumption that he represents “a new kind of politics in America”. The longer he stays in the Senate, the more likely that luster wears off. Obama is a straight-down-the-line liberal who has moderates and many conservatives convinced that he’s one of them. Eight years of casting votes in the U.S. Senate assures that that image will fade into oblivion.

    The best parallel is John McCain, who would have coasted into the White House in a 40-45 state landslide if he was the GOP nominee in 2000, but has now alienated many of his former fans who realize he’s far to the right of where they first expected he was. Obama can expect identical treatment if he waits until 2012 or 2016.

    Obama’s smart enough to realize that there is merit to everything you are saying and he may very well not expect to win, but the chances of him being a successful candidate with a lengthy tenure of casting liberal votes in the U.S. Senate is likely less than his chances of winning in 2008. If I were him, I guess I’d go for it too.

  2. Will says:

    It was a pretty impressive speech he gave today. I’m thinking Hillary/Obama is a dream ticket. What follows from that is at least 16 years of Dems in the WH.

  3. Mark says:

    If Hillary had either A) opposed the Iraq war from the start, or B) was able to articulate her current opposition with a less convoluted soundbyte than what we heard in Iowa from her in Iowa last month, she could conceivably pull out a victory given the current political climate. As it stands though, I can’t see her beating any of the prominent Republican candidates except Giuliani.

  4. Jay Reding says:

    Obama’s appeal is built entirely on his charisma and the inexplicable assumption that he represents “a new kind of politics in America”. The longer he stays in the Senate, the more likely that luster wears off. Obama is a straight-down-the-line liberal who has moderates and many conservatives convinced that he’s one of them. Eight years of casting votes in the U.S. Senate assures that that image will fade into oblivion.

    Which is probably the best contrarian argument to me…

    The best parallel is John McCain, who would have coasted into the White House in a 40-45 state landslide if he was the GOP nominee in 2000, but has now alienated many of his former fans who realize he’s far to the right of where they first expected he was. Obama can expect identical treatment if he waits until 2012 or 2016.

    McCain’s problem is that he was far to the left of the Republican mainstream on key issues. McCain-Feingold has ensured that many Republicans won’t support him in the primaries — myself included. McCain hasn’t moved any farther to the right than he always was, it’s just that he has the personal honor not to become yet another cheerleader for defeat like many of his colleagues.

    Obama’s smart enough to realize that there is merit to everything you are saying and he may very well not expect to win, but the chances of him being a successful candidate with a lengthy tenure of casting liberal votes in the U.S. Senate is likely less than his chances of winning in 2008. If I were him, I guess I’d go for it too.

    It’s his call, I suppose.

    Obama’s a fantastic orator — probably one of the best in the nation. It’s to bad his announcement speech was a cavalcade of cliches…

    It was a pretty impressive speech he gave today. I’m thinking Hillary/Obama is a dream ticket. What follows from that is at least 16 years of Dems in the WH.

    I rather doubt that… and I hope for the sake of the country that doesn’t come to pass — or it will be 8 years of Democratic rule followed by Islamic Caliphate of North America…

  5. Murali says:

    I think Obama is smart to throw is hat in the race. I don’t think he realistically believes that he can win. However, he would be a good VP candidate, and I believe that he is positioning for that. If Hillary wins the nomination, she will not pick Obama as VP. His charisma and charm will overshadow her, and that egoistic b$%#h will not accept that. Don’t be surprised to see Gore enter the race in the coming months. He’s going to win an Oscar for that piece of trash, An Inconvenient Truth. Also, with about 44 percent of the country still believing that he ‘won the race’, he still has quite a bit of support. I predict him to enter and win the nomination. I also predict that he will pick Obama as his VP. Gore knows he needs someone with charisma and charm to balance out his lack of both. A Gore/Obama ticket will be a formidable one. Expect it to happen.