Jay Reding.com

Is McCain Surging In Iowa?

That’s what the latest ARG poll of Iowa shows. McCain is ahead of Romney in that poll. In NH, ARG shows McCain tied for first place.

What this goes to show is how volatile polling in Iowa really is. The dynamics of the race are constantly shifting, and a long-shot contender like McCain has just as much of a shot as Romney or Huckabee. Because this is a caucus rather than an open primary the actual results will be decided by a relatively small number of people—and those people aren’t always the people answering the pollster’s questions.

It will be interesting to see if Sen. McCain can execute an “up the middle” strategy in Iowa and New Hampshire. The big issue that has been hurting McCain has been immigration, but that issue hasn’t been dominating the headlines as much as it has. McCain has a strong appeal with fiscal and national defense conservatives, and he’s an acceptable candidate with social conservatives as well. If McCain does well in Iowa and New Hampshire, it could completely alter the dynamics of the race.

Could there be a McCain/Lieberman unity ticket in the future? I wouldn’t be making any big bets on it, but in this fluid time, it’s not impossible either.

One response to “Is McCain Surging In Iowa?”

  1. Mark says:

    “That’s what the latest ARG poll of Iowa shows. McCain is ahead of Romney in that poll. In NH, ARG shows McCain tied for first place.”

    First of all, you linked to a New Hampshire poll instead of an Iowa poll. Secondly, I thought all the polls were wrong!!!!

    “What this goes to show is how volatile polling in Iowa really is.”

    It certainly is volatile, but the McCain message of “amnesty” for illegal immigrants, evangelicals being agents of intolerance, and ethanol subsidies being a boondoggle will not find an audience among the microscopic crowd of Iowa caucus voters. If McCain gets more than 5% in the Iowa caucus, I’ll eat my hat.

    “Could there be a McCain/Lieberman unity ticket in the future? I wouldn’t be making any big bets on it, but in this fluid time, it’s not impossible either.”

    If McCain gets the nomination, I’ll almost certain that there will be a McCain-Lieberman ticket. Ironic that such a “unity” ticket would be comprised of two guys who stand almost alone in their “unity” to stay the course in Iraq. With that said, it’d be a tough ticket to beat politically given the weakness of the Democrats.