Jay Reding.com

Post-New Hampshire Quick Takes

Well, this really throws a monkey wrench into this race, doesn’t it?

Hillary Clinton is back, and back with a vengeance. This was an upset, and a huge upset. This is “Dewey Beats Truman” big. Every poll showed an Obama blowout. For Clinton to have come close would have been big. To win is massive.

Hillary said something interesting: “I’ve found my own voice.” I think her show of emotion this weekend helped her. I didn’t see it at first, and when I saw the actual footage, it came across as the most genuine I’ve ever seen her. She won women by 13%—and I think her display of humanity helped her. Could this mean we’ll see the softer side of Hillary?

However, Obama is not out. South Carolina will be a key state for him, and Hillary still has a long road to travel. Yet after tonight, anything is possible. Obama is still untested and hasn’t taken the fire that Clinton has in the last few days.

I used to think that Bill was the most politically astute Clinton. Now, I’m wondering if he wasn’t the lesser of the couple.

McCain’s win was not a surprise, but the margin was. Romney is basically dead in the water—a loss in Michigan means that his campaign is over. The big question is where his support will go. If it’s Thompson, then Fred could be viable in the next contests. If they rally around McCain, McCain has the best shot. My guess is that the dynamics of the Republican race will be Huckabee versus whomever can beat Huckabee. At this point, I think John McCain has the best shot at doing that—but don’t count Rudy or Fred out quite yet. Rudy’s strategy may pay off, since he’s ahead in his key kickoff state of Florida in the latest polls.

In short, this race just got much more interesting. Clinton’s comeback is unprecedented. All the people who thought that Clinton was out have a lot of crow to eat. Anyone know what wine to pair with it?

2 responses to “Post-New Hampshire Quick Takes”

  1. Mark says:

    “I think her show of emotion this weekend helped her. I didn’t see it at first, and when I saw the actual footage, it came across as the most genuine I’ve ever seen her. Could this mean we’ll see the softer side of Hillary?”

    Let’s say for a minute that her display yesterday was sincere (and I remain cynical that anything coming from this woman is “sincere”), it was a one-trick pony that will never be able to be replicated without becoming a huge liability…much like the “cackle” that was last artificially displayed as a sign of her “human side”. Two-thirds of Americans in quickie polls said they thought Hillary’s waterworks would “hurt her” tonight. Clearly they were wrong, but it underscores the problem Hillary has with the general electorate, where she’ll have to persuade more than just the sympathetic waitress grannies of the northeast that rallied to her today.

    “Obama is not out. South Carolina will be a key state for him”

    Here’s Obama’s problem going into South Carolina after tonight’s defeat. Black voters were skeptical of the prospects that America would elect a black President, which helped Hillary consolidate an early lead in South Carolina. After seeing Obama’s building momentum nationwide and watching him win lilly-white Iowa, black voters started to move strongly towards Obama down in SC, so much so that Hillary was talking about bypassing it just a few short hours ago. Now, the surprise New Hampshire outcome may have reinforced black voters’ early nervousness about Obama’s electability, which could send many of them back to Hillary. At this point, I’d give Hillary odds in South Carolina.

    “I used to think that Bill was the most politically astute Clinton. Now, I’m wondering if he wasn’t the lesser of the couple.”

    Give me a break. First you suggested Hillary’s emotional breakdown that you credited to contributing to her victory as being genuine, but now you’re saying it was “politically astute”. Which is it?

    And for the record, I eat my crow with a white wine.

  2. Mark says:

    The most hilarious figures that came out of the New Hampshire primaries last night….

    Dennis Kucinich 3,912
    Fred Thompson 2,884

    Oh that’s just too precious for words!