Today is the Michigan primary, a race that’s been overshadowed by New Hampshire and South Carolina, but one that could have some effect on the dynamics of the race. On the Democratic side, the only candidate who counts that’s on the ballot is Hillary Clinton. Because Michigan didn’t follow DNC rules, their delegates may not be seated at the convention. The only shock would be if Democrats voted “Uncommitted” over Hillary. There are no write-ins allowed.
On the Republican side, things are more interesting. McCain and Romney are neck and neck. If I had to guess, I’d say McCain will benefit from Democratic cross-over votes and narrowly defeat Romney. If Romney wins, he remains in the game. If Romney takes second again, he’s basically out of the race. This is Romney’s last chance to remain viable, and even if he wins he’s lost so much ground elsewhere that it’s only a matter of time for him.
It all will come down to the number of cross-over and independent voters, a fact not lost on Team Romney. Turnout will be low due to weather, which may help Romney and Huckabee. However, McCain won Michigan in 2000. He still has strong appeal there. I don’t think it will be a McCain blowout, but I think Mitt Romney’s days are numbered. I’m predicting a narrow McCain win.