Jay Reding.com

More On Huckabee’s Downfall

Ed Morrissey takes a look at the cutbacks Mike Huckabee is making post-South Carolina.

The electoral map does not favor Mike Huckabee. He’s never been able to broaden his appeal beyond a plurality of the evangelical vote—and that isn’t enough to win. If he could campaign to the right of John McCain he might have a chance, but he’s already done enough to blow his reputation among conservatives to make that unlikely.

Right now the dynamics of the race favor McCain. The race is starting to boil down to him versus everyone else, and even with Thompson essentially out of the running there isn’t enough consensus among everyone else to blunt McCain’s momentum into Florida and Super Tuesday. Huckabee’s narrow appeal will help him with the South, but it’s not going to help him in Florida, California, New York, or others. Furthermore, Huckabee is not well liked with Arkansas Republicans, which means he could lose his own home state.

Huckabee’s narrow appeal is hurting both his electoral chances and his fundraising, and that means that Huckabee’s momentum is all but gone. This race may yet come down to McCain versus someone else, but that someone else doesn’t seem likely to be Mike Huckabee.

4 responses to “More On Huckabee’s Downfall”

  1. Mark says:

    “The electoral map does not favor Mike Huckabee.”

    The electoral map favors Willard far less. Huckabee will have the second best Super Tuesday after McCain.

    “Right now the dynamics of the race favor McCain.”

    Without a doubt. But an anti-McCain candidate will emerge beyond Super Tuesday. Most sane people expect that person to be Mike Huckabee.

    “Huckabee’s narrow appeal will help him with the South, but it’s not going to help him in Florida,”

    We’ll see about that. Northern Florida is chock full of bubbas, and that was Thompson’s natural constituency before dropping out. Considering Florida currently stands as a four-way tie, Huckabee is the clear beneficiary of Thompson’s demise.

    “Furthermore, Huckabee is not well liked with Arkansas Republicans, which means he could lose his own home state.”

    Wanna make a friendly wager on that? You name the size of the bet, and I’ll be more than happy to take your money.

    “This race may yet come down to McCain versus someone else, but that someone else doesn’t seem likely to be Mike Huckabee.”

    Carrying on the Bushian tradition, you have created your own reality every step of the way so far in this campaign, and that reality has shattered every time voters have gone to the polls. Just in the last week, you predicted that McCain would win Michigan, then that McCain was no longer the frontrunner after losing Michigan and would thus lose South Carolina, and right up until the last few days before the primary, you insisted Fred Thompson would win South Carolina after a month of pretending he was still a credible contender for the nomination.

    Jay, you gotta quit watching so many science fiction movies! It’s stunting your ability to discern real life from the world of invading kling-ons and alternate dimensions!

  2. Jay Reding says:

    The electoral map favors Willard far less. Huckabee will have the second best Super Tuesday after McCain.

    Not a chance. Huckabee has no money and little positive press. He can’t carry a majority of evangelicals.

    Romney is the second choice of most Fredheads. Fred’s departure helps him and McCain, not Huckabee.

    Without a doubt. But an anti-McCain candidate will emerge beyond Super Tuesday. Most sane people expect that person to be Mike Huckabee.

    Then who do you think it will be?

    It helps Romney because Romney has been doing more to court conservative voters. It helps McCain by eliminating one competitor as he consolidates his strength. Huckabee isn’t going to be the anti-McCain because Huckabee has little credibility with anti-McCain voters. People who see McCain as too liberal aren’t going to turn to someone who’s more liberal than McCain is.

    If anyone can stop McCain it will be Romney, but even his money may not be enough. Then again, Rassmussen has him up in Florida, so anything is possible.

    So basically, when you say “most sane people” you mean “you.” And your insanity has already been proven over and over again.

  3. Mark says:

    “Romney is the second choice of most Fredheads”

    Have any figures to back that up?

    “People who see McCain as too liberal aren’t going to turn to someone who’s more liberal than McCain is.”

    The far-reaching effect of Rovism, particularly the elevation of evangelicals to kingmaker status, is that conservatism as you understand it has undergone a wholesale transformation that you’re not even aware of. Those most likely to identify themselves as “very conservative” favor are most likely to support Huckabee. In the minds of these voters, conservatism is all about whose “family values” more closely resembles those they hear from the pulpit, and has absolutely nothing to do with cutting capital gains tax or railing against an increase in the minimum wage. To these “very conservative” voters, Willard isn’t even really on the radar screen….and no amount of condescension coming from JayReding.com or from America’s corporate boardroom is gonna convince them that your definition of conservatism is more real than theirs.

    “If anyone can stop McCain it will be Romney, but even his money may not be enough. Then again, Rassmussen has him up in Florida, so anything is possible.”

    I won’t rule Willard out, and if he does in fact pull out a win in Florida, he could really generate some desperately needed momentum for himself. But Willard’s strategy of buying his way into the nomination has failed him so far, and after Florida, his ability to saturate the local airwaves with his mug will no longer be practical. If Willard fails to prove his viability in Florida, he has nowhere to go. Even if Huckabee doesn’t win Florida, he’ll go onto win several primaries on Super Tuesday. That’s the difference.

    “And your insanity has already been proven over and over again.”

    Yet I’ve been far closer to right than you time after time after time. If I’m insane, what does that make you?

  4. […] to Fred Thompson people who are now looking for a new candidate. I’m eagerly awaiting the bankrupt and collapsing Huckabee campaign’s political annihilation on Super Tuesday. addthis_url = […]