I’m at my local caucus site, and GOP turnout is high–even I’m surprised at how many people are here. No clue as to which candidates are ahead, but Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have the most presence here tonight. No overt support for McCain that I’ve seen yet. If my connection works, I’ll have more as things develop.
UPDATE: The precinct was packed! I’ve never seen turnout like this. The votes are being counted now. Results when they come in.
UPDATE: Looks like Romney is cleaning up. Romney 48, McCain 15, Paul 6, Huckabee 6.
UPDATE: Romney may have done well in my precinct, but nationally he’s getting creamed. He’s said that he will fight on, but it seems quite unlikely that he’ll have a path to the nomination after tonight.
The Caucus was absolutely packed. There were 75 people in my small precinct, and the auditorium with the general assembly was filled, and an equal number of people were waiting outside. American democracy is alive and well. The demographics were all over the place—young voters and old voters, men and women alike.
UPDATE: Ed Morrisey liveblogged the caucus…
As a side note, did Bill Richardson suddenly grow a beard or is it his twin from the mirror universe?
For the record, I voted for McCain. I’ll explain that later.
UPDATE: The Democratic race is as close as everyone thought it would be. I have a feeling that this could be leading to a brokered convention—which has to have Howard Dean screaming a “YEARGH!” of pain at the moment.
UPDATE: Minnesota has been called for Romney. Obama has also won convincingly against Clinton, with Obama taking 66% and Clinton 33% with 51% of the vote in. That’s a much bigger spread than I would have guessed.
UPDATE: 10:52PM CST: It’s looking more and more like Clinton will win California—but the results aren’t in yet. It’s also looking like McCain will win both Missouri (narrowly) and California (by a large margin). For once this election cycle, the pundits seem to be on track. McCain has a convincing lead with the Republicans, and Clinton is narrowly ahead of Obama.
McCain has a lot of work ahead of him in reassuring skittish conservatives. Appearing at CPAC is a good idea—but what McCain needs to do is be honest about points of disagreement and be prepared to talk about a shared conservative agenda. That means being much more reassuring about the sort of judicial appointments he’d make and standing strongly for an enforcement-first border policy. McCain needs the help of conservatives to win, and he’s got a lot of ground to cover.
Willard’s getting destroyed even in the states where he was expected to do well today. He’d better win Minnesota or he may go home without a single significant trophy for the day. Starting to look like my initial instinct may have been right that Mike Huckabee would be the last man standing against McCain.
Looks like Willard should close well, most likely winning Colorado, Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota. I’m doubtful he’ll pull out California, but it’s still looking like he’ll have a better night than I expected an hour ago. Still, the big story tonight is the great Mike Huckabee comeback!
Huckabee did well, but it’s not going to matter. A comeback only counts if you actually have a shot at winning. My guess is that as people started to write off Romney, they went with Huck.
McCain will get the nomination unless he collapses, which doesn’t seem likely.