Jay Reding.com

The Potomac Primaries

Tonight was a good night for John McCain and Barack Obama, and not so good for Hillary Clinton. Captain Ed live-blogged the results as they happened.

Hillary Clinton’s campaign is in trouble. Obama has all the momentum and is now indisputably the front-runner. Neither Clinton nor Obama have ever run a truly competitive campaign, and Obama’s natural magnetism is giving him a decisive edge. Without her air of inevitability, Clinton is in the fight of her life.

Still, I would not count Hillary out. I don’t at all think that Obama is the superstar that the Democrats have made him out to be. In fact, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Obama is in fact the more vulnerable candidate. Obama has two huge problems: he’s incredibly inexperienced, and his appeal is quite literally skin deep. Obama is painting himself as a candidate above politics, but that doesn’t work. Sooner or later Barack Obama will have to stop spouting platitudes and start getting real, and he’s not prepared for that in the slightest. Especially now that it’s clear that McCain will be the GOP nominee, this contest will be one that is about clear differences: the young liberal activist versus the elder statesman and American hero. Sorry, Obamamaniacs, but your guy is all fluff. Either candidate will give McCain a very tough run, and he could blow it, but I think that the Obama hype machine is blowing a great deal of smoke up our collective posteriors.

Still, I do take some comfort in watching the collapse of the Clinton political dynasty. For years we on the right have been excoriated for criticizing the Clintons for being a bunch of amoral hyper-political sleezebags. Our friends on the other side of the aisle are about 15 years behind in realizing it, but it’s nice to know that we’re finally vindicated in that belief. Then again, the way in which the Clintons have gone from liberal paragons to persona non grata is more than a little Orwellian…

This race is going to be quite the interesting one, and even though some conservatives are disappointed that McCain is the nominee, I’m starting to come around to the idea that he’s the best possible candidate for these times. This summer will be quite fun to watch, and hopefully we’ll see some real fireworks—although most of them will be from the intra-party civil war on the Democratic side.

2 responses to “The Potomac Primaries”

  1. adb67 says:

    McCains problem aside from the issue with conservatives, is that most voters are saying the economy is their greatest concern. McCain does not do well in that category. He rarely speaks of it and has been on record as sayign he doesn tknow much about economics….not a good fit. I personally think McCain is as bad a candidate as Bob Dole was…..

  2. Mark says:

    “Tonight was a good night for John McCain”

    McCain barely managed 50% in Virginia, a state he absolutely has to win in November to be President, against a man with no money who the media reminds us every few minutes has no chance of being elected President. And that’s a good night how?

    “Still, I would not count Hillary out.”

    She needs to get 60% of the delegates from her firewall states of Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania for the arithmatic to work out for her. I suppose you can’t completely count her out, but she would need to win by landslide margins in March after losing about a dozen consecutive contests in February. Not likely that strategy will work much better for Hillary than it did for her former New York Senate challenger last month.

    “I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Obama is in fact the more vulnerable candidate.”

    Six of one, half a dozen of the other. They’re both incredibly weak. Obama has both a higher ceiling and a lower floor than Hillary in the general election, but I’m doubtful of the electability of either.

    “it’s clear that McCain will be the GOP nominee, this contest will be one that is about clear differences: the young liberal activist versus the elder statesman and American hero.”

    With Obama in the race, it could well unfold the same way that the 1976 race did….with a likable yet inexperienced Democratic candidate promising a new culture in Washington and winning enormous early support against a Republican Party in retreat, yet watching that early support wane when the Republican starts looking more like a statesman by comparison.

    “Our friends on the other side of the aisle”

    You’re definitely a John McCain disciple, parroting your leader’s “My friends” chant which pops up so predictably in his speeches and interviews that you can set your watch by it.

    “and hopefully we’ll see some real fireworks—although most of them will be from the intra-party civil war on the Democratic side.”

    The “Democratic civil war” is predicated on the premise that Hillary wins landslide victories in Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania to stay in the game with Obama, and that’s not exactly a safe bet these days. No Jay, it’s far more likely that the “fireworks” will still come from the Republican side with GOP delegates openly booing McCain during his convention speeches because he’s insufficiently right wing.