“The differences, it seems to me, are too small and the confounding variables too numereous and important for the study to support such sweeping statements.”

These numbers only account for party affiliation. When accounting for the direction the independents from these age demographics break down, I expect a larger split between the Democratic-tilting youth and the GOP-tilting Generation Xers.

“If Hillary gets more votes, which is the only way she’ll get the nomination, how is that stealing?”

Barring 2-1 landslides in every remaining state, Hillary is past the point of being able to get more votes than Obama. The only way she can get the nomination is if superdelegates overturn the popular vote. Even if you don’t consider that stealing, I can assure that Obama’s youthful and African-American supporters will. Hillary can’t win the general without robust turnout from both groups.

The Pew study, cited above shows:

Age.…% Difference
18- 29 1% favorable to Democrats
30-49 2% favorable to Republicans
50-64 3% favorable to Democrats
65-99 6% favorable to Democrats

The differences, it seems to me, are too small and the confounding variables too numereous and important for the study to support such sweeping statements.

Mark also wrote, “..if she steals the nomination from Obama…”

If Hillary gets more votes, which is the only way she’ll get the nomination, how is that stealing?

Bob

Age.…Indentified as Rep or Dem
18- 29 53%
30-49 62%
50-64 63%
65-99 70%

Which, to me, suggests that most people do not self-identify as independents.

I agree that it seems logical that teenage Democrats would tend to turn into middle age Republicans, but I haven’t found any empirical evidence for such an assertion, and the Pew study does not, to me, suggest any strong tendency for age to influence party affiliation.

Obviously, the study can and should be faulted as a means of providing evidence for this assertion since it looks at a snapshot of the population and does not control for variable such as education, ethnicity and gender. For example, one would expect a higher percentage of white females in the 65-99 age group than in the 18-29 age group.

So, my question would be: What is the empirical evidence for age related changes in political orientation? I couldn’t find any, which certainly doesn’t say such doesn’t exist. Your link doesn’t provide such empirical evidence.

Bob

In 1984, the youth vote went for Reagan with more than 60%, as opposed to Reagan’s 58% showing in the nation at large. These are the middle-aged Republicans today. The youth of today are likely to go more than 60% for Obama if he’s the nominee….and they will be Democrats a generation from now too. It’s not half as complicated as you’re trying to make it out to be.

“And what happens around the age of 25-29 for most people? They tend to get married, start thinking about a family, and start making money. In short, they grow up and become much less like a Democratic voter and much more like a typical Republican one.”

Your data largely concurs with the strong Republican numbers of Generation Xers who were Republicans even in their youth. We’ll see if the trends hold in the election cycles to come, as nothing in the public opinion polls indicate a great deal of appetite for shrinking government and starting more wars.

Do you really believe voters in the 25-29 age range will be voting for John McCain over Barack Obama on November 4?

I don’t think the argument that the youth vote doesn’t change holds much water. The youth vote always seems to break Democratic, yet that trend doesn’t remain true with older voters. There has to be some difference there, and when you look at the difference between the 18-24 and the 25-29 demographic you see a huge shift in voting behavior.

I suspect that the reason is straightforward — what are the key traits of a Republican votes? They tend to be married, have a middle-class income, and go to church. And what happens around the age of 25-29 for most people? They tend to get married, start thinking about a family, and start making money. In short, they grow up and become much less like a Democratic voter and much more like a typical Republican one.

Age.…Rep Dem
18- 29 26% 27%
30-49 32% 30%
50-64 30% 33%
65-99 32% 38%

These figures do not, to me, suggest any strong tendency for age to influence party affiliation.

Bob

Most of your analysis here is uncharacteristically reasonable….except for the continual perpetuation of the fantasy that young voters always grow up to be Republicans. The prevailing political mindset of one’s youth by and large colors their political leanings for life. In the 1980′s, the youth vote went stronger for Ronald Reagan than the electorate at large. Those voters are 40-somethings today and the most Republican demographic of voters in existence. Their parents (inspired by JFK) were Democrats in their youth and continue to be Democrats today….and their children today (inspired by Barack Obama) are Democrats and will continue to be Democrats when they get to be 40-somethings.

“Plus, if Obama gets the nod it means key states like Ohio and Pennsylvania could be in McCain’s column.”

And given that blacks will abandon Hillary in droves if she steals the nomination from Obama, she has no better chance at OH or PA than he does.

“Then again, perhaps that’s why politics can be so interesting to follow…”

At the end of the day, I predict this will be a very uninteresting election…at least compared to 2000 or 2004. It’ll be a replay of the 1996 low-turnout snoozefest where an uninspiring geriatric Republican faces against a Democrat who large segments of the party base are unenthusiastic about. Rather than a 10% showing for Nader like you predict, I just expect voter turnout well south of 50%.