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Rassmussen: McCain Ahead

With my usual caveats about the utility of polling this far out from an election, Rasmussen’s daily tracking poll shows John McCain well ahead of either Clinton or Obama. McCain leads Obama 50-41 and Clinton 49-42. This sample showed Clinton narrowly ahead of Obama as well.

What does this mean? This far out, not much. However, it does indicate that McCain was the right choice for the GOP. After eight years of Bush, the GOP needs a figure that can reach out to independents. It was the shift in independent voters to the Democrats that made 2006 such a bloodbath for Republicans. McCain, even though conservatives have their issues with him, is someone who can attract independent-minded voters. In some ways, all the conservative backlash to McCain may help him—conservatives aren’t going to hand the election over to either Hillary or Obama, and the conservative backlash makes it more difficult to paint McCain as an extremist. Independent voters want someone who will exercise independent judgement—and McCain’s maverick rep helps him there. He wasn’t a “maverick” because it made him popular, or he would have pulled a Hagel on Iraq, he was a “maverick” because he was doing what he thought was right. Independent voters want to see that in a candidate, and McCain has that strong appeal.

On the Democratic side, Clinton is down, but not out. She’s going to fight on, and while some argue she has no realistic chance at the nomination, that isn’t going to stop her. In essence, the Democrats are stuck with a Catch-22. If they nominate Clinton, people will walk away from the party, and someone like Nader could break 10%. If they nominate Obama, they’ll marginalize older voters (who vote in droves) in the hopes of attracting younger voters (who eventually grow up and become Republicans). Plus, if Obama gets the nod it means key states like Ohio and Pennsylvania could be in McCain’s column. The electoral math doesn’t favor Obama—no Democrat will win Georgia or Mississippi. Winning Kansas and Nebraska is great if your goal is to beat Clinton in pledged delegates, but those states are so likely to vote Republican in November that they’re virtually irrelevant to the general election.

I would hate to be a Democratic superdelegate right now. There’s no good answer: either vote for Hillary in the hopes that she’ll peel off a state like Ohio from McCain and squeak in, or vote for Obama in the hopes that the Electoral College math will somehow add up. Neither of those options are particularly good ones.

At the beginning of the year, having a Republican nominee running ahead and the Democrats in a brutal internecine war would have been one of the least likely outcomes of this race. Then again, perhaps that’s why politics can be so interesting to follow…

A Contradictory Endorsement…

The former head of the Office of Legal Counsel under Presidents Reagan and Bush, Douglas Kmiec has offered this endorsement of Barack Obama for President. By the time one gets through all the caveats, it’s barely clear why Kmiec is endorsing Obama. Normally, I’d ascribe such a move to a desire for publicity, but in this case I think it best to take Kmiec at face value. With that in mind, his logic is less than persuasive, except for why Obama is not the sort of person that a committed Catholic should be supporting. Kmiec even includes a handy list of reasons why not to support Senator Obama:

s a Republican, I strongly wish to preserve traditional marriage not as a suspicion or denigration of my homosexual friends, but as recognition of the significance of the procreative family as a building block of society. As a Republican, and as a Catholic, I believe life begins at conception, and it is important for every life to be given sustenance and encouragement. As a Republican, I strongly believe that the Supreme Court of the United States must be fully dedicated to the rule of law, and to the employ of a consistent method of interpretation that keeps the Court within its limited judicial role. As a Republican, I believe problems are best resolved closest to their source and that we should never arrogate to a higher level of government that which can be more effectively and efficiently resolved below. As a Republican, and the constitutional lawyer, I believe religious freedom does not mean religious separation or mindless exclusion from the public square.

All down this line, Obama stands in direct opposition to these principles. On the issue of marriage, even Prof. Kmiec has noted that Obama would repeal the Defense of Marriage Act—which would force states to accept gay marriages performed in places like Massachusetts. Furthermore, Sen. Obama opposes an amendment to the Constitution protecting traditional marriages. Now, there’s an argument to be made that gay marriage doesn’t harm the traditional family, but that isn’t an argument made by Prof. Kmiec. Obama’s statements are at best wishy-washy when it comes to protecting the family, and can easily be seen as openly hostile. This is one strike against a committed Catholic law professor supporting Obama.

On abortion, Sen. Obama is fully committed to the ongoing taking of innocent human lives. His voting record in Illinois makes it clear that he follows the orders of Planned Parenthood. A President Obama would be likely to repeal the Mexico City Protocol which bans US money going to fund abortions abroad. Again, from a Catholic perspective, any President who would substantially expand the taking of innocent human lives through abortion is not a President that should be supported. Sen. Obama is a creature of the pro-abortion lobby, and he will give only token respect to those who wish to see this country more strongly uphold the innate dignity of each innocent human life.

Sen. Obama also supported the use of embryonic stem cell research, and blasted the ban as contrary to “progress”—despite the existence of non-destructive alternatives that do not require the use of human embryos. Sen. Obama has further attempted to advance the lie that only embryos can be used for research, which is not only untrue, but places the idea that scientific progress should trump human life—which is invariably a dangerous precedent to set.

On the issue of judges and the role of the courts, we’ve already been down this road. Sen. Obama has a vision for a Court that would continue to act in an activist fashion, has only a limited deference for the rule of law, and would continue to interject their own social views in place of the clear strictures of the Constitution. Again, Prof. Kmiec is undermining his own first principles by endorsing a candidate who stands in direct opposition to them.

On the issue of subsidiarity, which Prof. Kmiec hints at, Sen. Obama is also clearly in the wrong. As Pope Pius XI wrote in Quadragesimo Anno, “it is an injustice and at the same time a grave evil and disturbance of right order to assign to a greater and higher association what lesser and subordinate organizations can do.” Yet that is precisely what Sen. Obama stands for—the increasing centralization of all sorts of economic and social activities. He supports a centralized government-run health care system. He supports tighter government controls on the media. On nearly every issue, Sen. Obama’s liberal ideology is clear: he supports government-run initiatives over local ones. He supports more centralization of power rather than less. He assigns more to greater and higher associations than to lesser and subordinate ones. At the very best, Sen. Obama sounds much like George W. Bush and his “compassionate conservatism”—which turned out to be neither. Conservatives have been fooled into believing that government money can empower communities rather than enslave them once before—it’s disheartening to see a thoughtful conservative fall for the same idea once again.

As for the separation of church and state, Obama’s positions have been less than clear. However, one can tell a lot about a man from his choice of friends. If anything, Obama takes the increasing politicization of religious life in America and simply shifts it towards other side of the political aisle. In the end, people of religious faith should judge a candidate not on their allusions to faith, but upon the exercise of their principles. On such critical issues as the value of life and the practice of subsidiarity, Sen. Obama simply falls short.

So why does Prof. Kmiec endorse Obama? He gives us two hints, one at the beginning and one in the end. His beginning argument is, or at least was until the last few weeks, the strongest argument for Obama. Implicitly, Prof. Kmiec argues that Obama will allow America to “move beyond” it’s racial polarization. However, the Rev. Wright scandal and Sen. Obama’s own use of racially polarizing rhetoric belie those claims. How can Obama move us beyond racial polarization when much of his appeal is based upon his race? When he tacitly and sometimes openly endorses those who spread inflammatory rhetoric? Yes, Sen. Obama is far less polarizing than previous African-American leaders, much to his credit. At the same time, Sen. Obama has not been unwilling to use the rhetoric of racial polarization to his advantage, especially by tying himself to Rev. Wright. There is a strong argument that this was a political calculation, and the real Obama is someone who does truly believe in his own rhetoric of racial healing. However, that is still taking a chance.

Finally, Kmiec gets to the issue that seems to be the real reason for his endorsement of Obama—the war:

No doubt some of my friends will see this as a matter of party or intellectual treachery. I regret that and I respect their disagreement. But they will readily agree that as Republicans, we are first Americans. As Americans, we must voice our concerns for the well-being of our nation without partisanship when decisions that have been made endanger the body politic. Our president has involved our nation in a military engagement without sufficient justification or clear objective. In so doing, he has incurred both tragic loss of life and extraordinary debt jeopardizing the economy and the well-being of the average American citizen. In pursuit of these fatally flawed purposes, the office of the presidency, which it was once my privilege to defend in public office formally, has been distorted beyond its constitutional assignment. Today, I do no more than raise the defense of that important office anew, but as private citizen.

Before analyzing Kmiec’s argument here, it’s crucial to point out that the very next paragraph belies his own analysis:

9/11 and the radical Islamic ideology that it represents is a continuing threat to our safety and the next president must have the honesty to recognize that it, as author Paul Berman has written, “draws on totalitarian inspirations from 20th-century Europe and with its double roots, religious and modern, perversely intertwined. . . .wields a lot more power, intellectually speaking, then naïve observers might suppose.” Senator Obama needs to address this extremist movement with the same clarity and honesty with which he has addressed the topic of race in America. Effective criticism of the incumbent for diverting us from this task is a good start, but it is incomplete without a forthright outline of a commitment to undertake, with international partners, the formation of a world-wide entity that will track, detain, prosecute, convict, punish, and thereby, stem radical Islam’s threat to civil order. I await Senator Obama’s more extended thinking upon this vital subject, as he accepts the nomination of his party and engages Senator McCain in the general campaign discussion to come.

On this part, Prof. Kmiec is right. Radical Islam is a continuing threat to our safety—which is the reason why we’re fighting it in Iraq. Sen. Obama has little to say about radical Islam because his policies would cripple us in that fight. He can barely name the enemy because to do so would undermine his status as the leading anti-war candidate.

As an American first and foremost, one cannot countenance the surrender of American and Iraqi interests to terror that would come about as a direct result of our unconditional withdrawal from Iraq. To do so would be to hand al-Qaeda the greatest victory that they have ever achieved. We’ve seen what such an act would look like before: al-Qaeda grew from the Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan (and our own unwillingness to intercede on behalf of the brave men like Ahmad Shah Masood who freed Afghanistan from Soviet tyranny, allowing financiers like bin Laden and radicals like the Taliban to take the credit). We watch as our ignominious withdrawals from Iran, Beirut, and Somalia emboldened the terrorist into thinking that the US was a paper tiger.

Sen. Obama would see this country further embolden terrorists worldwide. His policies would ensure that Osama bin Laden would be absolutely vindicated: the US would once again run with its tail between its legs as the forces of radical jihad once again defeated the mightiest army on Earth. A basic understanding of the psychology of groups like al-Qaeda make it clear that a withdrawal from Iraq is not in our best interests—which is why politicians like Sen. Obama rarely discuss it in any depth.

Prof. Kmiec merely seems to hope that Obama will see the enemy for what it is. That hope may be “audacious” but it is also misplaced—especially when we have a candidate on the other side who sees the enemy most clearly for what it is. On all the issues that matter, Prof. Kmiec’s endorsement of Obama undercuts all his own first principles. Committed Catholic conservatives cannot rationally endorse Obama without somehow undercutting the own first principles of both faith and politics. While there are many who easily fall onto the Obama bandwagon, it is quite distressing to see someone so prominent and so normally thoughtful make such a leap of logic based on such flimsy grounds.

Sadly, I must agree with Paul Mirengoff on this issue, Prof. Kmiec is not being sufficiently serious on this issue.

Time For A New Map?

Michael Barone had an interesting column arguing that the old red state/blue state divide won’t be in play in 2008:

Voters have a clear generic preference for the Democratic Party, but recent polls show a McCain-Obama race to be close. And don’t be surprised if those numbers move around in the course of the campaign.

It’s not like we haven’t seen voters move around before. At the beginning of the 1990s, it was conventional wisdom that Republicans had a lock on the presidency and Democrats had a lock on Congress, or at least on the House of Representatives. After all, Republicans had won five of the last six presidential elections and Democrats had held control of the House for 36 years.

But in 1992, voters elected a Democratic president, and in 1994 they elected a Republican House (and Republican Senate, as well). In 1988, Florida and New Hampshire voted 61 percent and 62 percent for George H.W. Bush — solidly red states. But in 1992 and 1996, New Hampshire voted for Bill Clinton. And in 1996, Florida did, as well. In 1992, Montana, Colorado and Georgia voted for Bill Clinton. By 2000, these were solidly Republican states.

Barone is the dean of American politics these days, and for good reason. The 2008 map may not like much at all like the maps in 2000 and 2004. Take Pennsylvania, a state that was solidly Democratic in 2000 and 2004. Should Obama get the nomination, it could be up for grabs. Republican states like Nevada may also swing the other way. The traditional “swing” states from 2000 and 2004 are also up for grabs: New Hampshire, Ohio and Florida could all swing from one party to another (as New Hampshire did between 2000 and 2004). There’s a new crop of potential swing states: Michigan, Wisconsin and Iowa are all states that could become major battlegrounds in the coming months.

Barone’s right: trying to shoehorn this race into the 2000/2004 paradigm is not necessarily such a smart idea. The idea of a monolithic bloc of “red” or “blue” states is the exception rather than the rule. There will be new dynamics in play in this election, and new battle lines drawn. That will make this election much harder to predict, but also far more interesting…

Richardson Endorses Obama

Former New Mexico governor Bill Richardson is set to endorse Barack Obama today. This is somewhat surprising given that Richardson has long been a political patron of the Clintons and was one of the top picks as Hillary’s VP.

It’s easily foreseeable that a deal was struck to make Richardson Obama’s VP. What are some of the top things that Obama will need? Outreach to Hispanics and foreign policy experience on his ticket. Richardson provides them both. Richardson has an equally strident pro-surrender stance in Iraq, and has some appeal with both the far left and moderates. He didn’t set the world on fire as a Presidential candidate, but he’d be a solid VP pick for Obama.

…then again, maybe not…

Arthur C. Clarke RIP

Arthur C. Clarke, one of the masters of science fiction has died at the age of 90. Clarke was not only a visionary of science fiction, but also left his indelible mark on our modern world:

As a Royal Air Force officer during World War II, Clarke took part in the early development of radar. In a paper written for the radio journal “Wireless World” in 1945, he suggested that artificial satellites hovering in a fixed spot above Earth could be used to relay telecommunications signals across the globe.

He is widely credited with introducing the idea of the communications satellite, the first of which were launched in the early 1960s. But he never patented the idea, prompting a 1965 essay that he subtitled, “How I Lost a Billion Dollars in My Spare Time.”

Every time we watch a satellite broadcast, we’re sharing in the legacy of Arthur C. Clarke. Not only was he a great writer, but he was one of the most innovative men of our time. RIP.

Obama’s Wright Speech

Matt Drudge has the full text of Barack Obama’s speech on the Rev. Wright affair. As is typical with an Obama speech, it has some excellent rhetoric:

I am the son of a black man from Kenya and a white woman from Kansas. I was raised with the help of a white grandfather who survived a Depression to serve in Patton’s Army during World War II and a white grandmother who worked on a bomber assembly line at Fort Leavenworth while he was overseas. I’ve gone to some of the best schools in America and lived in one of the world’s poorest nations. I am married to a black American who carries within her the blood of slaves and slaveowners – an inheritance we pass on to our two precious daughters. I have brothers, sisters, nieces, nephews, uncles and cousins, of every race and every hue, scattered across three continents, and for as long as I live, I will never forget that in no other country on Earth is my story even possible.

Rhetorically, Obama is putting himself firmly in the American story, despite his multicultural background. It’s an effective technique, and it’s one that Obama has used and will continue to use to reach out to the various groups that make up his coalition.

I have already condemned, in unequivocal terms, the statements of Reverend Wright that have caused such controversy. For some, nagging questions remain. Did I know him to be an occasionally fierce critic of American domestic and foreign policy? Of course. Did I ever hear him make remarks that could be considered controversial while I sat in church? Yes. Did I strongly disagree with many of his political views? Absolutely – just as I’m sure many of you have heard remarks from your pastors, priests, or rabbis with which you strongly disagreed.

But the remarks that have caused this recent firestorm weren’t simply controversial. They weren’t simply a religious leader’s effort to speak out against perceived injustice. Instead, they expressed a profoundly distorted view of this country – a view that sees white racism as endemic, and that elevates what is wrong with America above all that we know is right with America; a view that sees the conflicts in the Middle East as rooted primarily in the actions of stalwart allies like Israel, instead of emanating from the perverse and hateful ideologies of radical Islam.

As such, Reverend Wright’s comments were not only wrong but divisive, divisive at a time when we need unity; racially charged at a time when we need to come together to solve a set of monumental problems – two wars, a terrorist threat, a falling economy, a chronic health care crisis and potentially devastating climate change; problems that are neither black or white or Latino or Asian, but rather problems that confront us all.

Sounds like a disavowal, right? Except that it isn’t:

Like other predominantly black churches across the country, Trinity embodies the black community in its entirety – the doctor and the welfare mom, the model student and the former gang-banger. Like other black churches, Trinity’s services are full of raucous laughter and sometimes bawdy humor. They are full of dancing, clapping, screaming and shouting that may seem jarring to the untrained ear. The church contains in full the kindness and cruelty, the fierce intelligence and the shocking ignorance, the struggles and successes, the love and yes, the bitterness and bias that make up the black experience in America.

And this helps explain, perhaps, my relationship with Reverend Wright. As imperfect as he may be, he has been like family to me. He strengthened my faith, officiated my wedding, and baptized my children. Not once in my conversations with him have I heard him talk about any ethnic group in derogatory terms, or treat whites with whom he interacted with anything but courtesy and respect. He contains within him the contradictions – the good and the bad – of the community that he has served diligently for so many years.

I can no more disown him than I can disown the black community. I can no more disown him than I can my white grandmother – a woman who helped raise me, a woman who sacrificed again and again for me, a woman who loves me as much as she loves anything in this world, but a woman who once confessed her fear of black men who passed by her on the street, and who on more than one occasion has uttered racial or ethnic stereotypes that made me cringe.

These people are a part of me. And they are a part of America, this country that I love.

Rhetorically, this is brilliant stuff. But like everything else that Obama says, once one gets past the wonderful words, the message itself is largely meaningless. Sen. Obama admits that Rev. Wright is a racist with a deeply disturbing view of America. Yet he won’t back down from him (any more than he already has). On one hand, he thinks that this country needs to have a conversation about race—on the other, he is siding with people who preach a gospel of racial division.

Sen. Obama just can’t have it both ways.

Finally, Obama ends with the sort of populist flourish that could have come from any of John Edwards’ speeches. He argues that Rev. Wright is wrong for seeing all the bad in America, and then he ends his speech by arguing that despite all the progress we’ve made, America is still in the doldrums. The final story about “Ashley” the campaign volunteer is the sort of overwrought and blatantly emotional story we’ve heard countless times before—and almost all these stories turn out to be something other than what is presented.

I will give the Senator this: this is a very well-crafted speech. Sen. Obama is a gifted wordsmith, and it seems like his words are more or less his own. The problem is that there’s no substance to his messages. To borrow from Cicero, he’s full of oratio, but he’s lacking in the ratio. He can generate much emotion, but he lacks in logic.

I don’t think this speech will ultimately help him. He is trying to stake a brave political ground, but in the end his message ends up being schizophrenic. He admits he disagreed with Wright, but not once did he think that he should stand up for his own country. If Barack Obama cannot defend his own country from his own pastor, how can he expect us to believe he’ll defend this nation abroad? When the President of Iran calls the United States “the Great Satan” will Obama be as passive as he was when Rev. Wright accused the US of creating AIDS? If our allies denigrate this nation, will Obama have the courage to defend us? Or will he go along with the crowd as he did at Trinity?

The damage to Obama has been done. He isn’t helping himself by condemning Rev. Wright, but only so far. He had this opportunity to have his Sister Souljah moment, and he failed to do so. He had an opportunity to clearly stand up for his country, and he failed to do so. The reality is that whatever Sen. Obama does now is too late: his time to take a stand was when Rev. Wright was making those statements. He could have stood up and defended his country against the kind of attacks that Rev. Wright was launching. Yet when Rev. Wright said that America deserved attack, that we created AIDS, that we should say “God damn America” instead of “God bless America,” Barack Obama sat passively by and let those assertions go unchallenged. That says enough about the character of the man.

His speech may be filled with lofty rhetoric, but it is far too late to make the difference. The American people have begun to see a new Barack Obama—not the charismatic reformer, but the man who sat by while his country was slandered and did nothing. A man who can’t stand by his country against someone like Rev. Wright cannot be expected to stand by his country against far more pernicious attacks. The damage has been done, and while Obama’s efforts at damage control are formidable, he can’t undo his own past.

Safety And Numbers

A recent study conducted by the BBC has shown that Iraqis are feeling increasingly secure as the level of violence in Iraq drops. What’s interesting to note is the disparity between people who feel safe in their own homes, yet still think the rest of the country is unsafe. The same factors that explain why many Americans feel secure in their own finances yet thing think that the country as a whole is in recession apply to the Iraq data. People tend to only have limited and largely anecdotal contacts with places outside their own perception—so what they think of the outside world is shaped by the media. And the media runs on the maxim “if it bleeds, it leads.”

Looking at the survey data, it does look as though the security situation in Iraq is finally calming down. That doesn’t mean that there will not be sporadic acts of violence—as long as the opportunity costs are so low, groups like al-Qaeda will continue to launch a low-level campaign of intimidation. However, it’s a numbers game. Al-Qaeda has to launch enough attacks to keep the Iraqi populace in fear. The Iraqis are continuing to supply intelligence to the Iraqi police and military as well as the coalition. More terrorists get caught, which leads to more captures, until entire cells are compromised.

The situation in Iraq will be one long rollback, but that which was supposedly impossible has already been done—Iraq’s slide into anarchy has been halted. The security situation has begun to stabilize. Political progress has been made on key issues like oil and de-Ba’athification. Al-Qaeda in Iraq is losing, and losing decisively.

The war in Iraq was pronounced to be all but lost only one year ago—and now the situation is looking anything but lost. In war as in life, fortune favors the bold, and the boldness of men like Col. H.R. McMaster and Gen. David Petraeus have ensured that the situation in Iraq is vastly improved from where it was just one year ago.