Jay Reding.com

Pennsylvania Predictions

Today is the Pennsylvania primary, where Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton face off in the first primary in 6 weeks.

The RCP poll average has Hillary up 6% against Obama. Looking at the polls, with one outlying exception, Obama’s support in PA appears to be capped in the low 40s. Meanwhile, Hillary is consistently anywhere from 5-10% ahead.

We saw that late deciders had broken for Hillary in previous contests—this seems likely to hold true in PA as well. There are a small amount of late deciders in PA (less than 10%), but that’s enough to potentially swing Hillary into a stronger finish.

Obama seems capped at the low 40s, and that’s been a constant through the race. Hillary has the most chance at an upside by appealing to whites, Catholics, and men. Obama, as always, will convincingly win blacks, younger voters, and the wealthy.

In the end, my prediction a Clinton win—50% for Hillary, and 43% for Obama. There’s always the chance that this race could be a shocker and Obama could pull ahead, but none of the polls seem to show that. The most likely outcome is Hillary gets a victory, stays in the race, and the Democrats continue to battle for the nomination. Unless Clinton dramatically loses the next few races, the possibility of this race being settled in Denver will remain.

One response to “Pennsylvania Predictions”

  1. Mark says:

    You’re lowballing it for Hillary. She’ll win by 11 points…55-44…..for the very statistical reasons you cited. Just like California and Ohio, the “undecideds” will break for Hillary by a 2-1 margin…..because “the undecideds” were for Hillary all along.

    Even with an 11-point win, Hillary has to win Indiana in two weeks to remain viable. North Carolina won’t matter if she wins Indiana comfortably (more than three points). After that, Hillary has the inside track the rest of the way, as she’ll win by 3-1 margins in West Virginia and Kentucky. But will any of that matter short of a total Obama meltdown nationally? Nope.