It’s been a long tradition on this site to make some predictions for the new year just before the ball drops in Times Square. This year is no exceptions. So here are some predictions for 2011.
In the meantime, I hope everyone has a wonderful New Year, and that 2011 brings much health and happiness…
Politics
- President Obama, increasingly embittered by the political process and the Republican House, retreats from the public eye and rumors swirl that he will not run for a second term.
- The GOP won’t have a much better year. Their commitment to fiscal discipline will be continually tested, meaning that there will be plenty of difficult votes on spending in 2011.
- Sarah Palin will continue to tease a run for the Republican nomination in 2012, but won’t actually commit to anything.
- The Democrats will once again learn the wrong lessons from their 2010 drubbing, and will embrace the far left instead of running to the center.
- Redistricting battles will end up getting fought in court as the Democrats try to fight to keep as many Democratic seats as they can.
- ObamaCare suits will be appealed, and will eventually end up on the Supreme Court’s docket. But because Congress will end up removing the mandates from the bill, the Supreme Court will declare the issue moot.
International
- The last vestiges of democracy in Venezuela will be cast aside as Hugo Chavez extends his emergency rule into a lifetime dictatorship.
- The conflict in Afghanistan will continue to be bloody and difficult. By the end of the year the conventional wisdom will be that Afghanistan is Obama’s Vietnam, and the future of the US mission there will be in doubt.
- North Korea will continue to rattle their saber, but they will stop just short of provoking a full-scale war.
- Iraq’s biggest problem in 2011 will be corruption rather than terrorism, and civilian casualties will remain low.
- Fidel Castro will die, and Raul Castro will begin implementing policies similar to the glasnost and perestroika of the old Soviet Union in order to liberalize the Cuban economy and pave the way for a free-market system.
Economics
- The US economy will improve, but much too slowly. Unemployment will remain high, only retreating to around 8%.
- The Bush tax cuts will be made permanent, and while President Obama will complain, he will still sign the tax reductions into law.
- The Eurozone will face collapse as the fiscal crisis in nations like Greece and Portugal tug at the Euro’s foundations. Germany will refuse to bail out European banks and will threaten to leave the Euro.
- The Chinese economy will begin to slow, stoking fears of another worldwide economic panic.
Society/Culture/Technology
- The iPhone will come to Verizon, and will sell like hotcakes. The next version of the iPad will also come to Verizon, and will be accompanied by a major push by Apple to get the iPad into the business market.
- The battle between Google’s Android and Apple’s iOS will continue, but the Verizon iPhone will put a serious dent in Android’s growth.
- The SyFy Channel will stop airing real science fiction.
- Global warming hysteria will officially jump the shark after 2011 sees record cold temperatures.
- SpaceX will successfully dock a Falcon capsule to the International Space Station and will announce that they will be ready to bring tourists to the ISS before 2016.
- The 3D movie trend won’t save Hollywood from declining box office figures and their own creative stagnation.
