Bush Ahead?

The latest Gallup poll shows Bush leading Kerry just within the margin of error and Bush’s approval ratings at 51%.

This is welcome news for the President, and I have a feeling that this poll is more representative of the electoral situation than others. Gallup is one of the most respected polling firms in the nation, and their accuracy is traditionally quite good. Many of the polls I’ve seen have oversampled Democrats by some margin. The Democrats don’t enjoy the kind of majority in voter ID that they once did, and many polls don’t reflect the more even partisan split in the nation.

Of course, the only poll that really matters is the one in November, and we’ve yet to have the Republican National Convention. Still, the talk of Bush’s imminent political demise (or Kerry’s for that matter) is premature. Elections aren’t usually decided until the last few weeks, and there’s a lot of ground to cover before then. As we all learned from Howard Dean, what appears to be a “sure thing” today, may be “yesterday’s news” tomorrow…

3 thoughts on “Bush Ahead?

  1. Gallup’s respect is going out the window. They are now consistently becoming the only major pollster show Bush leading. Either Gallup’s wrong or EVERYBODY else is. Believe what makes you feel good, I guess.

  2. Let’s also remember that Bush has not had his convention yet.

    While Kerry may not have gotten much official “bounce” from his convention, I do believe it gave him a little momentum, and that he benefits from it in that it is the last big political memory in people’s minds. Now, when people think politics they think of the DNC. That will all change soon.

    So any evaluation of the current situation, which obviously still suggests a close race, has to be in the context of one party having had their convention and not the other.

  3. This is welcome news for the President, and I have a feeling that this poll is more representative of the electoral situation than others.

    Naturally you have that feeling, because it’s telling you what you want to hear.

    I can’t believe that you can’t see these examples in your own behavior of how your deep hatred for Kerry influences every part of your reasoning.

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