Ayman Nour, an advocate of democratization in Egypt has been released on bail by the Egyptian government. The Egyptian authorities had claimed that Nour had forged documents in the formation of his Tomorrow pro-democracy party, a claim that seems like a flimsy pretext to keep Nour from having trouble.
Of course, Nour’s arrest isn’t the only problem hanging over his head. Associates of Mr. Naur believe that the government will put him on trial to discredit him close to the election, and may try to find other trumped-up charges in order to prevent a serious opposition to the “reelection” of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
Mubarak is facing the first real calls for democratic reform in Egypt for some time, and he’s doing what he can to ensure that the already weakened Egyptian opposition doesn’t make any headway against him. Mubarak has ruled Egypt for 24 years, and has one every “referendum” on his leadership since 1981. The state of Egyptian civil society remains tenous after years of single-party rule and limited reforms.
Nour is one of the only people in Egypt who might challenge Mubarak’s power, which is why the Mubarak regime will likely do everything they can to discredit him. Mubarak wants to pass on power to his son Gamal once he dies, another autocratic transfer of power in the Middle East.
Undoubtedly Mubarak is wary of the wave of democracy spreading across the Middle East. The elections in Iraq, the Syrian pullback in Lebanon, unrest in Iran, all of it has repercussions in Egypt as well. Mubarak is undoubtedly trying to reign in the pro-democracy movement as best he can — it remains to be seen how strong the pro-democracy movement really is in Egypt and whether they will be able to force the government to make the upcoming multiparty elections a true contest rather than another rubber stamp on Mubarak’s autocratic rule.
Yet another encouraging sign, and I hope if reforms are coming they include increased religious freedom for Coptic Christians. The Coptic community has played a vital part in Egypt’s history but have been given 2nd class status in Mubarak’s Egypt. Discrimination in jobs, police passivity in response to anti-coptic violence, and arrests of leaders of coptic organizations have all been the rule of thumb. I know that if Egypt liberalizes, it’s Coptic minority which amounts to atleast 15% of its population will have a large hand in shaping an Egypt that can truly be deemed multiconfessional. Sadly this will come too late for the once prosperous Armenian community of Alexandria who used to be very important until pan-Arabism pushed them out of the country.