Jay Reding.com

Well, this really throws a monkey wrench into this race, doesn’t it?

Hillary Clinton is back, and back with a vengeance. This was an upset, and a huge upset. This is “Dewey Beats Truman” big. Every poll showed an Obama blowout. For Clinton to have come close would have been big. To win is massive.

Hillary said something interesting: “I’ve found my own voice.” I think her show of emotion this weekend helped her. I didn’t see it at first, and when I saw the actual footage, it came across as the most genuine I’ve ever seen her. She won women by 13%—and I think her display of humanity helped her. Could this mean we’ll see the softer side of Hillary?

However, Obama is not out. South Carolina will be a key state for him, and Hillary still has a long road to travel. Yet after tonight, anything is possible. Obama is still untested and hasn’t taken the fire that Clinton has in the last few days.

I used to think that Bill was the most politically astute Clinton. Now, I’m wondering if he wasn’t the lesser of the couple.

McCain’s win was not a surprise, but the margin was. Romney is basically dead in the water—a loss in Michigan means that his campaign is over. The big question is where his support will go. If it’s Thompson, then Fred could be viable in the next contests. If they rally around McCain, McCain has the best shot. My guess is that the dynamics of the Republican race will be Huckabee versus whomever can beat Huckabee. At this point, I think John McCain has the best shot at doing that—but don’t count Rudy or Fred out quite yet. Rudy’s strategy may pay off, since he’s ahead in his key kickoff state of Florida in the latest polls.

In short, this race just got much more interesting. Clinton’s comeback is unprecedented. All the people who thought that Clinton was out have a lot of crow to eat. Anyone know what wine to pair with it?

FOX News’ exit poll shows McCain with a 5% lead over Mitt Romney. Interestingly enough, that same exit poll shows that Clinton and Obama are also separated by 5%, with Obama leading 39% to 34%. The early results have been very favorable to Clinton, which would really make this race interesting. If Obama fails to blow out Clinton, that would be a major shot in the arm for the Clinton campaign.

More as the night continues…

UPDATE: 7:06PM - Jim Geraghty is getting some very interesting exit poll results showing a very close race on both the Democratic and Republican sides. This could be a rather interesting night if those exit polls hold true.

UPDATE: 7:14PM - Both CNN and FOX News have called the New Hampshire primary for John McCain. It looks like McCain may beat Romney by a bigger margin that Obama will beat Hillary. That’s an unexpected result.

This puts McCain in the position of being the frontrunner, as Romney’s strategy was based around strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. I don’t think that Romney will bow out, but it seems likely that he’s not going to be able to recover from this. If McCain wins in Michigan, and I think he will, that’s the end of Romney’s campaign.

Conservatives are going to be taking a close look at McCain in the next few weeks, which means that McCain has a lot of reassuring to do on key issues. However, on key issues like Iraq and spending, McCain has been a conservative vanguard. That may be enough for many conservatives, even with McCain’s squishiness on other issues.

Here’s the interesting question: where does Romney’s support go in the aftermath of consecutive loses in Iowa and New Hampshire?

UPDATE: 7:38PM - Clinton still has a slight lead against Obama with 16% of the votes in. I doubt it will last, but if Clinton stays within striking distance of Obama, it will be a very interesting race. This isn’t looking like an Obama blowout at all, which means that Clinton may be following her husband as being the “Comeback Kid” in New Hampshire—remember that Clinton also came in second in New Hampshire when he got that moniker.

UPDATE: 7:43PM - Interestingly, McCain did very well with late deciders, which indicates that Romney’s supposed late gains didn’t actually materialize. That’s interesting, as there were indications that Romney was making a comeback in New Hampshire. If these numbers are accurate, that means that Romney’s efforts to retool his campaign towards the end just didn’t work.

UPDATE: 7:47PM - Romney is speaking - “we got a silver.” Unfortunately for Romney, I just don’t see him coming back from this one. His strategy was based upon winning these early contests, and failing that he doesn’t seem to have much of a fallback strategy.

UPDATE: 7:53PM - This is interesting. While Romney speaks, more numbers are coming in. Hillary Clinton is increasing her lead against Barack Obama. She’s now ahead by 6% with about 23% of the precincts reporting. Anything could change, but it’s looking more and more like the runaway Obama win that was widely predicted isn’t appearing yet.

UPDATE: 8:04PM - Huckabee is speaking, despite taking only third. Meanwhile, the Clinton/Obama race is slowly tightening. Clinton is still ahead, but the margins are closing a bit. Still, even if Obama wins narrowly, Clinton could be the Comeback Queen tonight…

UPDATE: 8:12PM - McCain is speaking. A lot of iPhones in the crowd, which is chanting “Mac is back.” Indeed he is. McCain’s campaign was DOA a few months ago, and now he’s the frontrunner. McCain is emphasizing how he’s the “straight talk” candidate. Right now it’s looking like the predicted blowouts were reversed—McCain has won convincingly against Romney, and Clinton still leads Obama with 36% of the vote counted.

This is looking like a night for dramatic comebacks.

UPDATE: 8:17PM - McCain looks very Presidential tonight. I was an early supporter of Senator McCain in 2000, and the John McCain I’m seeing tonight is the John McCain I liked then. For his faults, I could see Republicans rallying around him—and a McCain/Thompson ticket sounds really good to me.

UPDATE: 8:27PM - The Clinton/Obama race is tightening, with Clinton still ahead by 2% and 42% of the vote counted.

Captain Ed has an interesting theory—that independents crossed over to vote for McCain, thinking Obama would win handily. Only about 20,000 fewer Republicans showed up to vote than Democrats, which gives some credence to that theory.

UPDATE: 8:31PM - The latest FOX News exit poll shows Clinton ahead 39-37%. I’m starting to think that she could win it. Hillary Clinton is the Comeback Queen tonight, as it’s looking like Barack Obama can’t pull off the blowout that everyone was expecting.

UPDATE: 8:36PM - Jim Geraghty has rave reviews for McCain’s speech. McCain actually carried the conservative vote in New Hampshire, and with Churchilian rhetoric like that, it’s not hard to understand why.

Clinton’s lead has increased to 4%—I’m really starting to think that she’s going to win. If she does, prepare for the coronation of the Comeback Queen.

UPDATE: 8:47PM - CNN is saying that the college towns haven’t reported in yet, and that might shift the balance back over to Obama. That could be, but unless Obama suddenly breaks out and wins convincingly, Hillary has still utterly demolished expectations tonight.

UPDATE: 9:00PM - The exit poll results are interesting. Clinton is dominating the female vote by 13%. She’s also winning union voters, lower-imcome voters, and older voters. Obama is winning with younger voters and independents.

UPDATE: 9:07PM - Here’s an interesting thought. The CW is that the college vote will heavily favor Clinton. But will it favor him enough to beat the current spread? Dartmouth has an enrollment of about 6,000—could Obama really pick up enough votes from places like that to beat a roughly 3,000 vote spread? I’m starting to wonder if Obama can really pick up enough votes to beat Hillary’s momentum if demographic trends continue.

UPDATE: 9:12PM - On FOX, Obama’s people are saying that the race could come down to Hanover. I’m not so sure—the exit polls are showing that Obama is not doing as well as predicted in western New Hampshire. The margins keep fluctuating, and if there’s a trend towards Obama, it isn’t showing yet.

Hanover is where Dartmouth is, but again, if it’s a 4,000 vote race, even a strong Obama showing may not be enough for Obama to pull ahead. Michael Barone is running the numbers, and says that Hanover could erase Hillary’s gains. Still, that’s only if Obama trounces Hillary there. If it’s a 60/40 split, Hillary could still eke out a narrow win—and even a narrow win makes Hillary look good.

The bottom line is this: Hillary Clinton defied expectations tonight. Even if she loses by a narrow margin it’s still a victory for her campaign. If she wins, even more so.

UPDATE: 9:19PM - Edwards is speaking. I’m trying to hold my dinner in. What a phony, and a phony who has no chance to win. Thankfully.

UPDATE: 9:33PM - The AP has called the race for Hillary Clinton.

UPDATE: 9:35PM - MSNBC has has also called the race for Hillary Clinton. With a 5,000 vote margin, it’s still possible for Obama to take the lead, but I’m not so sure that it’s likely at this point.

UPDATE: 9:42PM - I’m calling it for Clinton. With a lead of ~6,000 votes, even a strong turnout in Hanover doesn’t seem likely to shift the balance. This is a major achievement for Senator Clinton, and a major loss for the pundits.

This afternoon, the word was about the collapse of Hillary Clinton. Tomorrow it will be about the coronation of the Comeback Queen. What a night!

UPDATE: 9:45PM - Jim Geraghty reminds us all of just how wrong the polls were in this race. Let that be a lesson to those who think that political polls have a great deal of meaning.

UPDATE: 9:47PM - FOX News has called the race for Hillary Clinton. Barack Obama is about to speak.

This is bad news for McCain, because his win is already old news.

UPDATE: 9:49PM - Obama’s speech sounds more like a victory speech than a concession speech. Then again, with the race this close, his campaign is hardly over.

UPDATE: 9:56PM - If someone had said that tonight John McCain would beat Romney by a larger margin than the spread between Obama and Clinton I’d think you were nuts. If they had said that Hillary Clinton would beat Obama, I’d definitely think they were crazy. Yet tonight, the crazy people would have been right.

UPDATE: 9:57PM - CNN has also called the race for Hillary Clinton.

UPDATE: 10:00PM - I’m surprised at how vapid Obama’s speech is: I think his schtick is wearing a bit thin. All this talk about “change” and “yes we can” but no substance to any of it. Change to what? Yes we can do what?

I don’t think the Democrats are in a post-partisan mood this year any more than they have been in the last few years. They want to kick ass, and Hillary Clinton is a pro at that.

It’s looking like the action tonight will be on the Republican side. With about an hour before the polls close, Obama is almost certainly to rout Hillary, but the race between McCain and Romney appears to be closer than expected.

If Romney loses tonight, it’s hard to see how his campaign can keep going over the long term. If Romney wins, it could easily revive his campaign and sink that of John McCain. What happens tonight will have some significant impacts on the rest of the GOP race.

The long night of Hillary Clinton looks like it’s going to get a lot longer and a lot darker. She’s being forced into the same strategy as Rudy Giuliani, hoping that Super-Duper Ultra Mega Tuesday will lift her fortunes. It’s a risky strategy, and one that doesn’t seem to be a smart one for either candidate—except that for Rudy, he consciously chose that strategy.

In any event, the unseasonably warm weather has lifted turnout to record levels, with around half a million New Hampshire residents voting tonight.

More analysis tonight as the results come in.

UPDATE: Word is that there is strong turnout in both the Democratic and GOP races.

This one won’t be that hard to predict, at least on the Democratic side. Hillary Clinton is toast. She needs a miracle to defeat Obama, and the ham-handed way she’s tried to come back have failed. Even though she’s right—even her paltry experience is infinitely more than Obama’s platitudes—the Democrats have embraced Obama’s gauzy rhetoric. Politically, it’s not a bad move. In terms of who can provide the Democrats with real leadership, Obama is a terrible candidate. However, he happens to have the right message at the right time, and that’s enough to win.

On the Republican side, I wouldn’t count Romney out quite yet. He did well in the debates, and McCain’s overtly combative side that we saw this weekend does not suit him well. The independent voters in New Hampshire will likely join the Obama juggernaut, which gives McCain less of an advantage. That being said, I think McCain will win. If McCain wins New Hampshire and Michigan, I don’t see how Romney can continue. Which is too bad, since I’m warming to him the more I hear.

Those two matchups are all that matter in this race. The rest of the candidates aren’t in the game in New Hampshire. Rudy and Fred are not campaigning there. (And Ron Paul isn’t going to get the nomination, even if he will pull some support in New Hampshire.) Edwards is a dead man walking, politically. He didn’t even pull the same support in Iowa he did in 2004. Huckabee will get some play in New Hampshire, but his brand of evangelical identity politics does not play well at all there.

For the Democrats, I don’t see any way that anyone can stop Obama now. It’s possible he could slip up, but the Clinton campaign has come off the rails in a way that I wouldn’t have expected. She’s never had to run a truly competitive race in her life (and neither has Obama), and she doesn’t know what to do. My guess is that Clinton will not go quietly. What’s amazing is that even her well-crafted spin machine can’t save her now.

The Republican field is still wide open. Romney is sinking, but he’s not out. McCain’s star is rising. Huckabee is still in the lead. Thompson is hanging on and betting the farm on a solid performance in South Carolina. Rudy could always come up from behind and surprise everyone if his strategy actually works. At this point a brokered convention isn’t out of the picture. There’s no real momentum yet for one candidate.

The big question is who goes out first. Right now, Romney looks like he’s going to lose steam before the others. If that happens, who gets his support? That’s why this race is so undecided—in a race divided by a few percentage points between the candidates a gain by one can propel someone ahead of the others. If Romney’s support goes to Thompson, Thompson ends up being in a vastly better position. If it goes to Huckabee, he’d be nearly impossible to beat. If it goes to McCain, McCain would have a strong chance of winning. If it gets split, then we’re still in a morass.

New Hampshire is proving to be somewhat anti-climactic, but that could change in the event that Hillary or Mitt stage a comeback. However, it’s looking like the Democratic race is becoming more firmly established just as the Republican one continues to be unsettled.

I have to admit, Mitt Romney is smooth under pressure. Everyone was gunning for him, and he held his ground. This was his night, and he did well in defending his record. Granted, it would be convenient for my chosen candidate if the field gets split, but I wouldn’t be at all disappointed if Romney were the nominee.

I have great respect for John McCain, but this wasn’t a good debate for him. Oddly enough, he doesn’t do well under pressure. He tends to get too combative when questioned, which doesn’t look good for him.

Everyone knows who my candidate is, and once again, he did well. Not great, but well. Remember, New Hampshire isn’t his state. He isn’t campaigning here, so his position in the polls isn’t relevant to his campaign. He needs to win South Carolina, though, and he didn’t do anything that would knock him out. The problem is that he needs to do more before that contest, or his campaign won’t be able to recover.

Giuliani also failed to make traction. New Hampshire should be a strong state for him, but he’s largely out of the picture. Everyone’s carping on Fred, but Rudy’s really blown his lead in a way that no other candidate has in this race. He could still come back, but that strategy of waiting until Super Tuesday to do well seems to be failing him. Then again, a few weeks from now I could be eating those words, along with many pundits.

Here’s what infuriates me about Mike Huckabee: he’s not qualified to be President, but he gets the pulse of the electorate right. I despise political populism, but the reality is that the electorate doesn’t feel that this country is going in the right direction. He’s the only one really speaking to that, even though Rudy Giuliani touched upon an argument that the GOP should be making. The problem with Huckabee is that he is utterly clueless about foreign policy, and would follow the Bush big government model of conservatism—which ultimately becomes a betrayal of conservative principles.

Romney helped himself tonight, but nobody made any critical mistakes, which leaves the race fairly wide open. Giuliani and Thompson are in the second tier, but could come back based off of the results in South Carolina and Florida. McCain, Romney and Huckabee remain in a deadlock. Of those three, Romney is the most conservative and the most acceptable to both wings of the GOP base. He did very well in Frank Luntz’s focus groups, and for good reason.

I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again—even with all the divisions, the Republican field is strong on the issue, better informed the than Democrats and far more substantive. That certainly counts for much. It’s not just about “change,” it’s about taking this country forward. The Republican field would do that, and for all Obama’s personal magnetism, he doesn’t nearly the depth that the Republicans do.