Jay Reding.com

The first batch of post-RNC polls are out, and they contain good news for John McCain.. In the Gallup Tracking poll, McCain is up 3% against Obama. In the Rassmussen Tracking poll, McCain is tied 48% to 48%.

These polls show that McCain did get a bounce from the RNC, and that this race is very fluid. It would not be surprising if these numbers get better for McCain by mid-week as weekend polls sometimes undercount Republicans.

I am going to go off on a limb and predict that Obama will underperform his polling numbers—just as he did in New Hampshire in January. I believe that there is a strong “bandwagon” effect among Obama voters and that McCain will actually peel away some of the Hillary voters that have “come home” to the Democrats after the DNC.

Watch the swing state vote—states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan will decide this election. Obama needs some of the key Western states to win. McCain must take Ohio and Florida to win. Obama has to hold all of Kerry’s states and peel off enough electoral votes for the red states to win.

If Pennsylvania goes to McCain, Obama is toast. He is unlikely to pull enough additional electoral votes to make up for that loss. If I were McCain, I’d be having Sarah Palin circling the Great Lakes states while McCain pulls Colorado, Nevada, and possibly New Mexico from Obama.

This race is completely up in the air. McCain has taken some of the wind out of Obama’s sails. He has an opportunity to run as an “agent of change” and beat the prevailing political climate. Obama is now on the defensive, and could lose. The debates will be critical, and the next two months will be some of the most exciting in American politics yet.

UPDATE: The latest Gallup/USA Today tracking poll has even better news for McCain: a lead of 10% in a survey of likely voters. That poll is likely an outlier, but there’s little doubt that McCain has gotten a bounce from his convention, and that Obama’s lead has evaporated.

UPDATE: Today (Sept. 8), McCain has a 3.2% lead in the RealClearPolitics average. All the major polls show the race either tied, or with McCain in the lead. There’s no doubt that McCain got a bounce from the convention, and that it was a substantial one. The question will be whether he can make the best of that momentum into Election Day.

The RealClearPolitics polling average shows a typical 6–8% convention bounce for Barack Obama. These polls may be right, but note that all of them are polls conducted over a weekend—and there is anecdotal evidence that weekend polls favor Democrats. Even though the evidence is far from conclusive, Obama’s “bounce” is just that—a bounce. The dynamics of this race have not significantly changed, and such as they have, it’s more likely in McCain’s favor.

To be bold, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Obama will underperform his polling numbers. The reasons aren’t as much due to race as the bandwagon effect. Some Clinton voters are “coming home” to Obama now, but they may tell the pollsters one thing, but do another. Remember Obama’s big lead in New Hampshire? As it turned out, the polls were wrong. I have a feeling that late breaking voters will break towards McCain. Voters who haven’t made up their minds tend to go to the “safe” choice, and here that choice is McCain—the more experienced candidate.

Much will be made of polling over the next 60 days, but polling is as much art as science. There’s plenty of reasons to think that conventional methodologies for political polling are breaking down. Polls give some indications of where things are headed, but they are in no ways dispositive.

Obama may have gotten a typical convention bounce, but he should be wiping the floor with McCain. An unpopular war, a deeply unpopular President, a Republican Party with an image problem—and yet Obama can only eke out a slender lead against McCain. McCain, to his credit, has proven to be a disciplined and effective candidate, and the results of the Presidential debates could be telling—there is a reason why Obama refused McCain’s invitation to do voter town halls.

One thing is clear: this race is not even close to over, and the predictions that Obama has this in the bag are unwarranted. McCain is much tougher than he appeared to be, and he could end up doing to Obama nationally what Clinton did to Obama in New Hampshire this winter.

I’ve long said that Barack Obama is one of America’s most gifted orators. The man knows how to turn a phrase. He can inspire. He can speak.

That Obama was barely on the stage tonight.

Instead of soaring rhetoric, we got attacks. Instead of a compelling vision, we got what Obama is not. Instead of great lines, we got rhetoric that will not last beyond this election. This speech failed to satisfy.

Obama could have done better. This was a small speech on a momentous occasion. I honestly expected more from him. Even as a partisan, I can recognize great rhetoric when I see it, and this was not it. It was too small for him, and while some may love the red meat, this was not a speech for the ages.

On the other hand, perhaps it need not be. Obama wants to win the election, and that’s what this speech is about. The problem is that when Obama ran, he ran as a uniter. He ran as a post-partisan candidate. He leaves this speech as just another partisan.

UPDATE: Oddly enough, the conservative commentators on Fox News thought this was a great speech. My theory is that partisans seem to think that this was a great speech—because this speech was so partisan. The real question is whether this speech will attract the undecided.

On the other hand, generic Democrats are doing well in this bad year for Republicans. Obama has turned himself into a generic Democrat—which perhaps is enough for him. But I don’t think that’s enough.

I can accept that Obama took the “agent of change” mantle back, as several commentators have argued. The problem with that is that Obama’s appeal was that he was a post-partisan figure as well as an agent of change. He lost that tonight. It was a gamble, and perhaps it will pay off for him. But even as an admitted McCain partisan, I wanted to see a real vision beyond attacks and a laundry list of focus-group tested policies. Something real to spar with. That did not appear tonight, and that’s why Obama’s speech did not achieve what it should have.

Here is McCain’s challenge: let us accept that the American people have had “enough.” (Which is true.) But the American people don’t know what “change” Obama will bring—and McCain has to paint a compelling vision of what he will do that Obama will not.

That is something that McCain can do, but it will be a challenge. McCain does have a big job ahead of him, but the contrasts are clear.

UPDATE: In all fairness, the set was not merely as bad as I thought it would be. Granted, I watched PBS, which didn’t play with camera angles too much, but it didn’t really seem all that distracting. That and neo-classical architecture is my bag…

UPDATE: Wow, I’m really in the minority here. Even Jay Nordlinger thought the speech was good. The problem is that Obama had huge expectations placed before him. I can believe that this was a good partisan speech for the moment, but I don’t see it lasting. This wasn’t great oratory, from an orator who has the capability to truly inspire. Had a John Kerry or a Walter Mondale given this speech it might have been better in my eyes. But Barack Obama has more raw political talent than either. My biggest problem with this speech, my partisanship aside, is that Obama could have done better.

I haven’t done a liveblog in ages, so what the heck. I was thinking of taking a drink every time the word “change” is uttered, but I’m starting to think that may result in a liver transplant.

I haven’t read any of the excerpts of Obama’s speech, but I’m guessing that it will be 90% “hope” and “change” and 10% trying to paint America as some kind of post-apocalyptic wasteland. Obama is trying to associate McCain and Bush because he knows that he can’t win against John McCain. If McCain is smart, he’ll be able to change the game next week.

UPDATE: CNN is saying that this will be a “partisan” speech… so much for uniting the country, I guess.

8:58PM CST: How many times has Obama been compared to Lincoln… talk about audacity…

9:01PM CST: They’re doing a video tribute to Obama now. Gag me with a spoon.

Then again, given his paltry experience, at least the video should be short.

9:03PM CST: Obama’s mother woke him up at 4:30am to do his lessons? Does that strike anyone else as ever so slightly odd?

9:05PM CST: These videos are always fluff, but it’s good fluff for the candidates. The video does a good job of humanizing Obama, but it seems to highlight his lack of experience.

Norm Coleman was briefly in the video. Whoops. That must have Franken annoyed.

9:08PM CST: Barack talking about his mother’s death was touching. I also loved the bit about the astronauts. Very humanizing, and a great message. Too bad Obama’s policies are so wrong.

9:11PM CST: Overall, this is a very good video. It does a good job of introducing Obama and setting a positive theme. But will his speech match it?

9:14PM CST: Can he can the “thank you” and get on with the speech?

This is not a good start.

9:15PM CST: He gives a shout out to Hillary? But will it heal the wounds in the Democratic Party? Everyone’s thinking about female voters, but that wasn’t all of Hillary’s bloc.

9:17PM CST: We finally get to substance. And it’s about him. For all the talk about Obama’s supposed humility, he sure seems to talk about himself a lot.

9:18PM CST: And here we go with the pessimism. McCain needs a truly optimistic message to counter this.

9:19PM CST: Obama goes after Bush. I don’t think that this will go over well with independent voters. This is Democratic red meat, not a speech for the general electorate.

9:20PM CST: The insinuation that the government did nothing for Katrina is disgusting.

This is a negative and arrogant speech. It is not hopeful, it is partisan and vicious. This could easily backfire, and I hope it will. We don’t need this kind of mindless partisanship.

9:22PM CST: This speech is an attack speech, and it is not fitting for an event such as this. This is a momentous occasion, and Obama is making it small.

9:24PM CST: My guess: this speech is turning off a lot of people. It’s becoming increasingly shrill and bitter. You don’t spend 20 minutes on the attack when you should be talking about your vision for this country. This is a speech for the MoveOn.org crowd, not Main Street.

9:27PM CST: Negative. Shrill. Lacking in vision. This is not the Obama that inspires. This speech is flopping, and I can’t see independents going for this. What was the Obama team thinking?

9:29PM CST: Obama’s video was beautiful and inspiring. This speech is anything but. How could such a gifted rhetorician sink to such lows?

9:31PM CST: The speech is presenting a vision, but it’s too narrow. He’s gone from attacks to a laundry list. Where is the vision?

9:33PM CST: Obama wants to cut taxes. We’re all Reaganites now.

In 10 years we won’t use Middle Eastern oil? Without more drilling? How? By using the snake oil Sen. Obama is selling?

9:34PM CST: If drilling is a stopgap, then Obama supports more drilling? Then what makes him different than McCain? Of course drilling is a stopgap, but it’s a necessary one. The Democrats don’t want to drill.

9:35PM CST: This is not about small plans. Except for the ones I just spend the past 10 minutes talking about. A bold plan would be school vouchers, Senator, not kowtowing to teacher’s unions. There’s nothing but small plans here.

I’m disappointed. This is the worst Obama speech I’ve heard. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but this is the time he should be hitting the rhetorical highs. Not giving us a laundry list.

9:38PM CST: I’m opening comments for this one. Play nice.

9:39PM CST: Each of us must do our part? For Obama, that means more government mandates.

I’ll give Obama this: he’s right on the importance of family, especially fathers. I like the individual responsibility part. but it’s just a footnote.

9:41PM CST: Obama goes for the antiwar line. If he wants to have a debate on national security, then let’s have it. Obama will lose.

End the war? The war is largely over. We won, and we won because we didn’t listen to small-minded people like you.

9:43PM CST: More attacks. Where is your vision, Senator?

I love how we’ve supposedly strained our alliances, when Europe has become far more pro-American than it was in 2003. And here Obama has been insulting our allies like Columbia.

9:45PM CST: Sen. Obama keeps making all these promises. He’ll really defeat disease?

This speech is 90% attacks and 10% hope and change. Guess I was wrong.

“They have not served a Red America or a Blue America…” at least Obama has one good line tonight.

But then he goes on the attack again.

What happened to Obama being a uniter? A post-partisan figure? This isn’t a uniting speech, this is a partisan speech.

9:49PM CST: Again, the implicit racism of saying that rural people can have guns, but urban people should not.

9:50PM CST: I’m really curious to see how this speech is going. How many times has Obama mentioned McCain? This wasn’t a speech about Obama’s vision, this was an attack speech. I think that Obama has seriously overcorrected here. Yes, the polls showed that Obama needed more substance—but Obama didn’t deliver that tonight. He replaced his hopeful rhetoric with attacks. I don’t see that working for him.

Invoking Dr. King just makes this speech smaller. Sen. Obama did give a speech full of fear and rancor—not the kind of unifying message that Dr. King gave us 45 years ago.

9:56PM CST: Obama ended on a strong note, but this speech was not the sort of speech that he needed tonight.

UPDATE: Obama mentioned McCain 21 times in this speech. If McCain is smart, he won’t mention Obama more than once or twice.

The McCain campaign has one of the most effective campaign ads I’ve ever seen. On the day of Sen. Obama’s acceptance speech, the McCain campaign offers this reminder that despite the Senator’s historic rise, he is simply not prepared to lead this country in a time of great challenges:

Obama’s own words serve as a reminder that the Presidency is not a time for on-the-job training, especially not now. Obama’s instincts are wrong. He was wrong on the surge. His instincts were wrong on Georgia. He made key blunders in threatening Pakistan with a U.S. invasion. He can give a compelling speech, but compelling speeches won’t be enough to safeguard Ukraine from Russian interference. Compelling speeches will not stabilize the fragile situation in Pakistan. Compelling speeches will not win the battle against the Taliban in Afghanistan.

Actions speak louder than words, and had the U.S. followed Sen. Obama’s advice, Iraq would not be stabilizing, we would have shown Russia a sign of great weakness, and our foreign policy would return to the fecklessness of the Carter years.

Obama has neither the experience nor the instincts to lead. Sen. McCain has both. Sen. Obama deserves congratulations for breaking a historic record and achieving much. What he does not deserve is to be the Commander-in-Chief of this great nation.

UPDATE: Ann Althouse says this ad is “devastating”—it is.

When I read that Barack Obama was going to give his speech from a faux Greek temple I thought it was a joke.

Apparently it’s really true.

After Obama’s Berlin speech, his numbers went down. Obama is overexposed, and turning his nomination speech into a kind of coronation is the exact sort of thing that has been causing Obama to hemorrhage support for the last few weeks. People don’t want to turn their politicians into secular messiahs—and that’s exactly what the Obama campaign has been trying to do.

The McCain camp is saying that Obama will get a 15 point bounce from the convention—trying to set expectations to unlikely highs. At this rate, I’m not so sure that Obama will get any bounce at all. He’s already got adulatory coverage for months on end—what more can he get from the media? When you’re already the media’s darling and MSNBC is at outreach of your campaign, there’s nowhere to go but down.

Obama will probably get some bump, but it won’t be 15 points, and it may not last long. I don’t see the Hillary supporters coming home this time, even with Hillary’s tepid praise for Obama last night.

Pride goes before a fall. Given the stratospheric heights to which Obama has been lofted, he should be more circumspect about how he runs his campaign. He wants to be the next Jack Kennedy—but he could end up an Adlai Stevenson.

UPDATE: After watching this video of the set, it looks like Sen. Obama is invoking the Markets of Trajan rather than a Greek temple. Then again, Trajan had military and executive experience, while Obama most assuredly has neither.

The word on the street is that Sen. Joe Biden will be Obama’s VP selection. The rumor mill states that Biden has already been assigned a Secret Service detail, and Gov. Kaine and Sen. Bayh have been informed that they will not be the pick.

Biden has some qualities that make him a good pick, but not enough to make up for his infamous lack of inner monologue. His tendency to put foot firmly in mouth is not something that makes him condusive to being a running mate to a neophyte politician.

Biden is a Washington insider, which goes against Obama’s message of change. He is someone who offers experience, but at a price. Of all the top contenders for Obama’s VP, he is perhaps one of the weakest.

Biden makes sense on a superficial level, but when it comes to who best complements Obama, he’s not the best choice that could be made.

On the other hand, it could be worse: Obama could have picked Clinton.

UPDATE: It’s official, Biden is it. At least the Obama people had the good sense to drop the bad news on the weekend.