Predictions

It looks like turnout for the recall election in California is high. I’m going to slightly modify my predictions for the election. Later tonight we’ll see how I did…

THE RECALL
55%-60% YES
40%-45% NO

THE REPLACEMENT CANDIDATES
35%-45% Arnold Schwarzenegger
25%-35% Cruz Bustamante
10%-15% Tom McClintock

5 thoughts on “Predictions

  1. It’s still tough to call, but those most likely to vote would be the anti-Davis element. Even so, the high profile of this recall will probably lift voter turnout higher than the turnout in 2002. My final prediction is more optimistic than anything else, but let’s say 50.5% no on the recall. In the event that the recall goes through, let’s say 37% Schwarzenegger, 33% Bustamante and 16% McClintock.

  2. With all of the Hitlerisms in the final days of this campaign, perhaps the closest parallel between Adolf and Arnold is the percentage of the vote they received to achieve a powerful elected office. It’s unlikely that more than 20% of voters who go to the polls today will cast a ballot for Arnold Schwarzenegger, but that may be enough to win, just as it was 60-some years ago for Hitler. Does this mean Arnold will reinvent concentration camps in California if elected Governor? Not likely. Does it stand as further proof that this recall nonsense urinates on our nation’s commitment to fair elections in favor of partisan advantage at any cost? You bet!

  3. It’s unlikely that more than 20% of voters who go to the polls today will cast a ballot for Arnold Schwarzenegger,

    At this moment it’s 51% and it’s likely not to deviate from that by more than few percentage points if that. That’s more than the margin of victory that Davis had in 2002.

    Just thought I’d rub it in.

  4. I always heard that the only people who could vote on a replacement candidate are those who voted yes on the recall. That’s the way it was always explained at least, and that’s where my 20% figure came in. I apologize for the assumptions I made based on incorrect information.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.