The inestimable Michael Barone, the dean of American politics, predicts that this election cycle could be a repeat of ’94…1894: For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like ’94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 [...]
Over at The New York Times, political polling wizard Nate Silver argues that the generic ballot may be overstating Republican gains. At The Weekly Standard, political polling wizard Jay Cost says that there’s no real evidence that the generic ballot is really overstating Republican gains. The Generic Ballot 101 But first, a little background on [...]
Tags: 2010, 538, Democrats, generic ballot, polling, polls, republicans
I am making a (not so bold) prediction: the Republican Party will take back the House in November. The days of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi will end next year. Back in April, FiveThirtyEight, a Democratic-leaning but still valuable polling site, looked at the generic ballot measure to predict a possible 50-seat loss for [...]
Tags: 2010, analysis, Democrats, generic ballot, GOP, House, Politics, polls, republicans
I’ve been outside the world of politics for the past year, and what a year it has been! When I started my job, Obama’s approval ratings were still sky-high, and the Tea Party movement was just getting started. Now, we face a political dynamic that’s looking a lot more like 1994 than 2008. What a [...]
Tags: Afghanistan, Democrats, Economics, Iraq, jobs, Obama, Politics, republicans, Site News, tea parties
Marc Ambinder has a perceptive take on the election of Michael Steele, the first black Chairman of the Republican Party: Did Republicans choose Steele as a token? Some RNC members will think so, as will many skeptical Democrats. But Steele won this thing by himself. The RNC is a fractious, uncooperative bunch. And Steele patiently [...]
Tomorrow, George W. Bush rides off into history. The left is breathing a sigh of relief, their Emmanuel Goldstein is gone (although soon they will find another). Bush leaves an unpopular President—but so did Harry S. Truman. In many ways, Bush and Truman have had similar trajectories. Both began their terms in a time of [...]
Tags: Afghanistan, bush, conservatism, Economics, Iraq, legacy, Media, republicans, taxes, terrorism, war, War On Terror
John Fund takes a look at why the GOP lost Dennis Hastert’s former House seat. The Republican Party is going to face an uphill battle this fall to begin with—and the ham-handed way in which this election was handled does not bode well for the party as a whole. In order to win, the GOP [...]