Martin Sieff has published his analysis of Le Pen’s electoral chances in today’s NRO.
He seems to think Le Pen could do better than anyone thinks. His analysis is certainly possible, but I doubt that Le Pen has a prayer of pulling much more than 25%, if even that. There’s been enough backlash against him that his chances seem slim. Still, all the analysts were wrong before.
In the end, as much as I’d like to see those smug Gaullic bastards in the French government get their comeuppance, electing Le Pen would be like cutting off their nose to spite their face. If anything, Le Pen stands even more firmly on the side of economic protectionism than Chirac does. A Le Pen presidency would probably lead to a collapse of the French government, a collapse which would likely bring a Communist government into power. And for as much as Chirac is a corrupt Eurocrat, at least he’s not a Trotskyite.