The indispensible RealClearPolitics poll watch shows Bush back up in the polls against John Kerry. The latest CBS News/New York Times poll shows Bush leading Kerry by an 8 point margin (46% to 38%).
However, Bush’s approval ratings are still low for an incumbant and there’s still a large amount of uncertainty that’s working against him. Despite his current lead in most polls, he’s still working at a disadvantage and those numbers can and certainly will change over time.
Terry Eastland writes in The Weekly Standard that 2004 is going to be a very, very close election – a prediction which seems almost certain. The dynamics of this election are the dynamics of an evenly divided country – meaning that the traditional dynamics of electoral politics have changed. Swing voters are still important, but the parties are competing for a vastly diminshed pool of swing voters. The party that can best reach out to this pool is the one that has the best chance to win.
Bush may well benefit from an economy that is recovering in many sectors. However, job growth is the Achilles heel of both the economy and Bush’s reelection bid. The signs are all there that job growth will continue and grow, and if the economy will grow at only 2.4% between now and Election Day it’s entirely possible that we could add two million new jobs. However, while the reality is one of growth, the perception (fueled by Democratic negativism) doesn’t match that reality.
A good campaigner can not only sell themself, they can sell a larger image. Bush needs to sell his positive view of his foreign and domestic policies. At this point it is a tough sell, but if trends continue as they have it will be easier. Time would appear to be on the President’s side at this point, but even so, this election will be down to the wire.
This is going to be an interesting election. Like 2000, we’re stuck with two boring candidates, but at least this time there’s some discontent in the air. I expect this one to come right down to the wire.