I’ve noticed a tendency among Republicans recently to start dancing on Kerry’s grave before he’s been buried. Hindrocket of Power Line reminds us that the fat lady has yet to sing in regards to John F’in Kerry, and we shouldn’t get cocky yet.
Because of the highly polarized electorate in this day and age, Kerry is virtually guaranteed to get at least 40% of the vote (as is Bush). There are 40% of the people who have completely swallowed the Kerry Kool-Aid, hate Bush, hate the war in Iraq, hate the idea of tax cuts, thinks Bush went around and put buckets of arsenic in kids drinking water, etc. They’ll vote Democratic if Kerry devours a mewling infant on stage during one of the debates while throwing puppies into a meat grinder. It’s simply the nature of the system. (And to be fair, there’s nearly as many Republicans who would do the same, although GOP party identification traditionally lags slightly behind the Democrats).
That means the best the GOP can realistically hope for is for Bush to win a plurality of the vote while taking the Electoral College. I would not be terrifically shocked if Bush loses the popular vote once again, although this seems less likely. Right now Kerry’s campaign is stumbling horribly, but the GOP would be fools to assume he will continue to do so for the entire election period. Also, if the situation in Iraq contines to deteriorate as it has, Bush will continue to slip in the polls. Right now this election is between two weakened candidates, but anything could change that dynamic. If the Fallujah situation is rectified, or the US finds WMDs in Iraq, or Osama bin Laden is captured, Bush’s numbers will skyrocket. If Kerry spontaneously develops a personality, fires his campaign staff, and find a message he could gain significant ground.
The point is that it is never wise to declare victory until after your opponent’s entrails are strewn before you. (NOTE FOR HUMOR-IMPAIRED LIBERALS: I AM BEING METAPHORICAL) While Kerry’s campaign may be falling faster than Kerry himself on a bicycle, things can and will change. This is going to be a close campaign no matter what, the the GOP should play it as such.
I’m fully expecting the Democrats to pull a repeat of New Jersey in 2002 — where they switched their party’s candidate after the deadline.
If they can switch candidates at the last minute for the most part their message will still be valid, but the opposition’s (read: Bush’s and Nader’s) messages may no longer apply.
Then again, maybe I’m just down that the Red Wings got knocked out of the playoffs.
And now I look like an idiot because I read the wrong window thinking it was the first link in your post. Oh well, it wouldn’t be the first time I’ve said something stupid.
Actually, that’s not an impossible scenario. Theoretically the Democrats wouldn’t have to pick a candidate until the national convention – and some have predicted that Hillary may jump in if she thinks that Bush is vulnerable…
Eh, not a chance. The Hillary Ex Machina theory is bogus- Kerry’s in charge now. He’s bungling, and I doubt he’ll defeat Bush (although it’s too early to call), but he won’t be replaced at this point.
True, the Hilary Ex Machina theory (man, I love that name!) is about as likely as me winning the lottery while being struck by lightning generated by a million monkeys typing McBeth – sure, it could happen, but I wouldn’t necessarily count on it.
Still, in politics, stranger things have happened…