The latest Quinnipac poll shows that nearly half of all Americans and 24% of Democrats think Bush will win this November compared to only 36% who believe so with Kerry. Granted, I’ve seen numbers that are much closer in other polls, but most show Bush with the perceived electoral advantage.
I’ve long argued that in terms of voter psychology, people who vote on protest, like most Democrats today are the most fickle voters. If Bush is ahead in October, a number of Democrats will switch over to Nader or stay home. In a race this tight, all it takes is 1% of Democratic voters switching sides for anything to change.
Despite the fawning press coverage and the selection of Edwards as VP, Kerry remains tied with Bush in the polls or has only the slightest advantage. Right now Kerry should be up by at least 5, and at the end of the convention should have at least a 10 point bounce. The chances of this actually happening are slim to none. Kerry could get some bounce coming out of Boston, but I doubt it will be much of one. As I noted yesterday, this race is going to be tight, and the normal swings of political fortune will be muted on both sides.
Bush has barely begun to fight. He took Kerry down a notch once it was clear he would get the nomination, but Bush has been largely silent this summer. He’s letting Kerry try and gain ground, knowing that most voters make their decisions late in the race. I’ve been predicting that if there’s a shift in fortunes in this race it will be towards the end, and I stand by that prediction. If Bush can maintain that win psychology with the electorate and gain even a margin of 4-5% against Kerry in October, he will be reelected. Kerry is exceptionally weak. He has to fight in places like Wisconsin and Minnesota that should be safe Democratic states. Something tells me that Kerry is in far more trouble than the polls indicate. The “9/11 Democrats” will be a major factor in this race, and unless Kerry can be persuasive on security issues, he’s going to lose a good chunk of the Democratic vote.
I don’t think that the winner will break 300 Electoral votes (in fact, I’d pretty much say outright that won’t happen), however, I do think that Bush can yet pull off a convincing win. The Democrats have thrown as much mud as they can against the President, yet none of it has been able to stick. At this point, they’re rapidly running out of ammo. If this keeps up, I have a feeling that those 47% of voters surveyed by Quinnipac will prove to have been right.
Kerry’s gonna lose a significant number of Democrats? Name three. Yes, I know…your heroes Zell Miller and Ed Koch, but the list gets pretty sparse from there. Meanwhile, Kerry leads among independents in virtually every poll.