Jon Lauck of Daschle v. Thune live blogged the Daschle/Thune debate at DakotaFest. Personally, a debate on agricultural issues sounds about as much fun to me as watching paint dry (heresy from someone living in a predominantly agricultural state, I know). Jason van Beek of South Dakota Politics also has some pictures and observations.
From what I’m hearing, I think Thune has a very strong shot at unseating Daschle this year. Daschle has not had a strong opponent for years, with Char Haar in 1992 and Ron Schimdt in 1998 being essentially sacrificial lambs for the GOP. Thune is animated, intelligent, articulate, and popular in the state. Daschle is viewed by many as a partisan who has done very little for the people of South Dakota.
Daschle’s main argument is that he brings “clout” for South Dakota. And exactly what has that “clout” gotten the people of South Dakota? What is Daschle’s contribution to the state? What policies have Daschle gotten implemented recently?
The answer is that Daschle has done nothing but obstruct progress on several key issues from judicial nominations to budgets. The people of South Dakota deserve better than to have a self-aggrandizing partisan in Washington. Tom Daschle isn’t working for South Dakota, and John Thune will. I have the feeling that the people of South Dakota understand that, and that Daschle’s fortunes are quickly waning.
No polls out of the South Dakota race in months. I’m anxiously awaiting new returns. I’d give a slight advantage to Daschle in that I think he’ll fare better in the Sioux Falls area than Tim Johnson did in 2002. Thune will pull in West River margins as good as he did in 2002, but I see Daschle doing as well East River as Johnson did, perhaps better. This is likely to be another SD nail-biter, but the widening Dem margins and growing voter turnouts in Indian country are helpful in countering the GOP-trending Minnehaha County and fast-growing Lincoln and Union Counties.
Jay,
I love your site, and I find myself quickly becoming a blogoholic (if there is such a thing). As a fellow former Gustie, I appreciate your wry sense of humor! I just had to respond to this piece…I heard on the radio last night that supposedly, Tom Daschle was going to help pass some legislation on Ethanol (a big boost for SD), and just before the vote, he went to, I believe, a book signing (I could be wrong here). The bill failed by 2 votes. I wonder how the farmers in SD feel about that one??
I’m not as optomistic regarding Daschle’s hopes as Mark is. Part of it is that I’m not entirely sure what appeal Daschle has to most South Dakota voters. The only real appeal he has to me is that he’s not John Thune. In some ways, I’d almost like to see Daschle get defeated, as it might pave the way for some real leadership among senate democrats…
Nicholas, I don’t have a serious amount of optimism about Daschle. I’d give him a sliver of an advantage in that 20% of SD Republicans has stated plans to vote for him in the most recent polls, and that Thune comes into this damaged goods after losing to Johnson last time. Thune did not seem to generate much enthusiasm East River in 2002, and Daschle would seem to be better positioned to draw support from this region than Johnson given that he’s served the area for the last 26 years. The election will most likely hinge around Daschle’s numbers in Minnehaha County. If he scores a seven-point margin like Stephanie Herseth did, Thune is most likely toast. If he pulls it off by only four points (or less) like Johnson did, it’s advantage Thune. At best, I’d give Daschle 52-48 odds.
As for improved Senate leadership, I’m hard-pressed to figure how one could make lemonade out of the lemons dealt to Senate Democrats in a scenario where one party controls government. Perhaps the Dems could find a more charismatic figure who could articulate the message better, but it’s gonna be very tough to wrestle away the bully pulpit for the White House (if Bush wins again, God forbid!). Hillary Clinton will be a more polarizing figure than Daschle and unlikely to even want the unsavory role of “obstructionist punching bag” if she indeed has designs on the Oval Office for 2008. And if not Hillary, then who? Whoever leads the Senate Dems in 2005-06, he or she is likely to be leading an ever smaller minority. The Dems are delusion in thinking they can take the Senate this year, and will most likely lose two or three seats. Daschle may be the only guy willing to take the Minority Leader job, if he pulls out re-election.