Stephen Green has an updated Electoral College map that contains much good news for Bush. Green seems to think the Pennsylvania is in play for the President. I wouldn’t have believed it before, but I’m inclined to agree. Ohio is looking to be relatively safe for Bush, especially given Kerry’s disastrous campaign stops in what should be Democrat-friendly areas of the state. Florida is trending stronger Bush, and Mel Martinez will help Bush with the Cuban vote as well.
If Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania all go to Bush, Kerry would need an electoral miracle to win, and that isn’t going to happen. Colorado should be a worry for Bush, although I don’t see Kerry pulling off a win there. However, Kerry has to keep Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and New Mexico from slipping or he’s toast. The current electoral balance has Kerry struggling to keep his key states out of play, which is not a good situation to be in. The trendlines strongly favor Bush both in terms of the popular vote and the Electoral College. However, there are still two months to go, and things could change. However, with the Kerry campaign seeming to be unable to find traction so far, it’s not hard to see a very strong shot at a Bush victory at this point.
UPDATE: Blogs for Bush warns Republicans not to get cocky quite yet. Save that for November 3rd. There’s a long way to go in electoral terms, and the Kerry smear machine is going to be on full blast. We’ve every reason to be confident, but it can’t happen unless every single Republican gets to the polls – which is why it could not be more critical to make that happen.
To borrow from Hugh Hewitt, if it ain’t close, they can’t cheat.
I agree that we Bush supporters should never get too confident.
Also, we do need to run up the score as much as possible. The larger the Bush victory the more we send a message to the terrorists that we are determined to win in this war. So in one sense, a large Bush victory would be a great benefit to this nation’s security, just as Reagan’s landslide was in 1984, which sent a powerful message to the Soviets.
The trendlines strongly favor Bush because he just held a convention and got the proverbial post-convention bounce, however marginal it’s turning out to be (did you see Rasmussen today?). Kerry is clearly not doing well for himself, but the bad news keeps piling on in the economy and the bodybags keep piling up in Iraq. Post-convention reality will bring Bush back to size. The debates will be very telling as well, although the election will be won or lost based on what issue voters are most concerned with when they step into the voting booth.
As for the Electoral College, most of the states you cited will only go Bush in the unlikely event that he maintains his inflated post-convention margins between now and November 2. The good news for Bush is that he has nearly identical chances in Ohio and Pennsylvania. The bad news for him is that those chances are very slim. Barring a terrorist attack before the election, Bush will have a hard time overcoming the devastation his policies and his party’s policies have produced. And if Kerry wins Ohio, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Bush wins.
As for Florida, I agree it’s advantage Bush, especially with Martinez on the ballot shoring up support among Cubans and in battleground Orlando, which I believe is his home area. Wisconsin is somewhat of a concern, but nobody expected Gore would win it in 2000 based on poll numbers generally worse than what Kerry has seen in the state thus far, at least in non-Strategic Vision polls. A likely erosion in Nader support, particularly in Madison, should also help Kerry further. New Mexico will go Kerry barring a last-minute Bush surge. Colorado will be closer than anyone expected three months ago, but Bush will still win by three or four points. If Kerry can come within that margin in CO, it’s hard to imagine him losing nationwide.
Ohio won’t go to Kerry – not by a longshot. All the polls except for the worthless Rassmussen polls (Zogby and Rassmussen state-by-state polls are all but worthless) show Bush with a lead, some show a significant lead. Kerry has been having trouble finding support in even Democratic areas of the state.
The fact is that while Ohio is a heavily industrial state, it is also socially conservative, strongly pro-war, and Kerry can gain little traction there. Ohioans see right through Kerry. Ohio’s unemployment rate is only slightly higher than the national average, and those areas in which Ohio’s unemployment rate is high are areas that have always leaned Democratic.
Ohio may still be a swing state, but not by much. Despite Kerry’s constant attempts to secure Ohio, he’s made no progress and never will.
Barring a nationwide landslide for Bush, Kerry wins Ohio handily. I know a number of horse race experts who cite the ugly anti-Republican attitude in every region of the state, due to Bush’s domestic policy incompetence and the corruption and epic failures of the state Republican Party which is in only slightly better financial condition than California due to endless GOP tax cuts. Bush’s re-elect numbers in the Republican-leaning Columbus area have been below 50 percent all year. This is devastating. Turnout in northeast Ohio was only 57% in 2000, when Ohio was considered a GOP stronghold. Northeastern OH Dems are far more likely to make it to the polls this time, while more conservative voters from equally devastated central and southern Ohio are also far more likely to go Kerry than Gore.
Bush needs a miracle to win Ohio. The Zogby Interactive polls you cite showing Bush leads also show Kerry leads in Tennessee? Do you believe Kerry is up by two in Tennessee? If not, it’s hard to put much credibility in their Ohio sample either. Kerry by four in Ohio on November 2.
The LA Times, Gallup, and Strategic Vision all show significant Bush leads. Kerry’s numbers in the state are poor, and even in economically depressed zones Kerry’s numbers aren’t good.
No way in hell will Kerry win Ohio. If you know all these experts who think Kerry is going to handily win Ohio despite all the polls, I’d like to know who they are…
Jay, Strategic Vision is a GOP-funded pollster who consistently suggests outcomes 3-10 points better for Republicans than nearly every other major poll. I’m not aware of the exact spread in the LA Times and Gallup polls, but am pretty sure they were within the margin of error. And by the way, you sure dropped your Zogby Poll dagger when you discovered I knew how messed up their interactive polls are. I ask again…do you believe Kerry is leading in Tennessee? Unless you do, you have to concede their Ohio numbers are just as suspect.
As for the horse race “experts” I said I knew from Ohio, perhaps the word expert is overstated, but other Electoral Projection blogs have produced several Ohioans (as many Republicans as Democrats) who recognize the difficulty Bush faces there this year. One, a moderate Republican who goes by the name of Rod, cites weekly updates of internal polling data he reads showing devastatingly soft re-elect numbers for Bush in regions of Ohio where he destroyed Gore in 2000. If it were just him talking about the anti-Bush and anti-GOP sentiment in Ohio, I would be inclined to dismiss it…but I’ve heard it from at least seven native Ohioans.
Mark: The plural of “anecdote” is not “data”. I can name just as many Ohioans who are dead-set against Kerry.
I’m not considering the Zogby poll, nor the Rassmussen poll (both of which tend to be statistical outliers). Even with those polls discarded, the closest is a 46-46 tie in the Columbus Dispatch poll, and that is a pre-convention poll.