Based on my predictions, President Bush needs only 11 electoral votes to win. Right now the electoral situation works out roughly like this: Bush loses New Hampshire to Kerry. I don’t see Bush keeping it. On the other hand, Bush gains New Mexico, which gives him a net increase of 1 electoral vote. With Colorado and New Mexico looking safe Bush, that gives Bush 259 electoral votes to Kerry’s 228. That sounds like a solid margin, until one considers that Bush’s readiest source for those 11 votes is not trending well for him.
This race now comes down to only four states: Ohio, Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. If Bush wins Ohio, he will be reelected. If he wins Iowa and Wisconsin and Kerry takes Ohio and Minnesota, Bush still wins. All Bush has to do is win any two of these states, and Kerry is done for. The rest of the nation is either safely red or safely blue (which the exception of Hawaii – which could throw the election if it becomes a tight contest…)
Florida has been looked at as a possible Kerry pickup, but I’m skeptical. The 2002 polls underestimated turnout for Jeb Bush, and I have a feeling that Florida is relatively safe for the President. There’s a potential for a dramatic (and campaign-ending) turnaround there, but it’s slim.
The state that Bush should be most worried about is Ohio. If Bush takes Ohio, Kerry’s done. But Ohio is trending blue this week, which is not good news for the President at all. In fact, it appears as though Kerry has built up a lead in the Buckeye State. Could Bush pull a surprise upset? I’d like to believe he could. I have the feeling that Kerry’s numbers are slightly inflated right now due to a lot of people, especially in an industrial state like Ohio, who are simply afraid of openly supporting the President right now. However, it’s an open question as to if that would be enough of a factor to swing the state back to Bush. It could be, but I’m skeptical. Right now if I were to play the odds, I’d have to give Ohio to Kerry.
This election is down to the wire, but my odds are still on Bush. The latest Badger Poll has Bush up by 3 in Wisconsin. The latest Research 2000 poll in Iowa gives Bush a narrow lead. In Minnesota, the RCP average shows a tied race, and that includes a St. Cloud State University poll that’s a massive statistical outlier from the other polls. If that poll is discarded, the simple poll average for Bush in Minnesota jumps to around 2 points. If tradition holds and Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota vote as a bloc, Bush could easily win without Ohio.
If we take the RCP averages in this race as an indication of the results on Election Day (risky, I know), Bush wins with 290 to Kerry’s 248 – and that’s operating under the assumption that Kerry takes Ohio.
One thing is for sure… this election will be a nail-biter…
We agree on one thing. It will be a nail-biter. Nonetheless, Bush being forced to play defense on two fronts is not a good way to end a close presidential campaign.
Florida and New Mexico are still very much up-for-grabs. I think you’re putting way too much faith in those Zogby state polls in New Mexico, which I remind you also shows Kerry with a consistent lead in Colorado. Nobody expected Gore would win New Mexico four years ago, but an undersampling of Hispanics and Native Americans appeared to have underestimated Gore’s strength there. I anticipate a similar scenario in NM this year and predict a narrow Kerry win. I’m inclined to agree that Bush will likely win Florida, but early indications are spectacular for Kerry. You’re right that there is frequently a trend towards the Republican in Florida on Election Day, but I don’t know if the 2002 gubernatorial race is a good representative sample of an inevitable trendline. Kerry has three rallies scheduled in Florida today, and I expect he’ll be there again before Tuesday. If I were him, I’d hit the state hard on Monday to get the last word there. If Kerry takes Florida, it’s arriva derci for Bush.
Ohio is looking great for Kerry right now and I suspect it will stay in his column, however narrowly. I’m not sure if socially conservative but economically populist Ohio is the right place to bring the socially liberal but economically conservative Arnold Schwarzenegger for a rally. It seems to me he could do more damage in Florida than Ohio.
As for the Upper Midwest, the local media story about explosives at Al-Qaqaa after the fall of Baghdad isn’t doing Bush any favors in Minnesota. However, Bush will have a rally here this weekend and it doesn’t look as though Kerry will respond in the following days, other than to send Edwards to Hamline University. I’m very partially confident of a narrow Kerry win in MN, simply because I don’t think Nader will get 5% of the vote. This weekend’s Minnesota Poll in the Star Tribune should be telling. If Kerry isn’t ahead by at least five points in that poll, he’s probably in trouble.
Iowa is moving ever-so-slightly towards Kerry lately and I hope Kerry and Edwards continue hitting it hard over the weekend. I still give Kerry a slight edge here, primarily due to the massive Democratic advantage in absentee voting…and I’m not sure if these early voters are being polled in the “likely voter” models of pollsters. As for Wisconsin, the Badger Poll has been wildly erratic all season, giving Bush leads as high as 14 points just last month. Kerry seems to be on a roll there and his rally in Madison yesterday was not just a homerun, but a grand slam and may have sealed the deal for Kerry in WI. Plus, it doesn’t hurt that every major newspaper in WI now seems to have endorsed Kerry. That may not mean much, but I’d rather be the guy who has the endorsements than the guy who doesn’t. Advantage slightly Kerry in both states.
Now for the wild cards, setting Cheney to Hawaii is a huge roll of the dice for Karl Rove considering it forces Cheney to spend nearly a full day on an airplane going back and forth to the islands during the last weekend of the campaign. Nonetheless, there’s a very good chance the show of attention to this neglected state by a Vice-President two days before the election will be perceived as a show of support that the Dems will have a hard time countering with Al Gore and Alexandra Kerry. On the other hand, Kerry’s waging an ad buy in Arkansas, where inside polls from both campaigns show the race very close, and where Bill Clinton will be resurrected in a rally Sunday night. The Bush team must be nervous because they made an ad purchase of their own in Arkansas.
It’s definitely getting suspenseful as my lack of sleep at night this week has proven. I’m more confident of a Kerry victory now than at any time during the campaign, but a Bush win is still highly possible. In four days and 12 hours, we should either know outright or have a pretty good sense of who will be the Prez for the next four years.
“In four days and 12 hours”
Last time it took weeks to settle and since the lawyers are already preparing so many cases in so many states, I bet it’s gonna be even longer this time unless victory clearly goes to one candidate in the w-e which is THE thing everybody agrees is not gonna happen (the nail-biter)
Based on my predictions, President Bush needs only 11 electoral votes to win.
Wow, and I thought you would at least have to appear to have something like a mojority in the EC. So if Bush gets 11 electoral votes and still does win… I shudder to think about it.
J.