LaShawn Barber argues that the Federal Marriage Amendment is just a bad idea. She thinks it will never be ratified, and while I think it is quite possible that it could get through the ratification process, I agree that Bush is pandering to his base at the least opportune time.
So long as the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) holds, there’s no need for a Constitutional amendment that would directly interfere in the affairs of the states. It does appear as though the DOMA will hold, and if it doesn’t, only then is it time to consider the possibility of amending the Constitution. To create a preemptive amendment to deal with a potential court case seems to be overkill to me.
Bush is clearly pandering to his social conservative base, despite the fact that his losses are mainly due to the immigration issue. Only a small percentage of voters really care about this as a political issue, and Bush doesn’t gain much by kowtowing to him. There are far better ways of protecting the sanctity of marriage than by creating a federal definition for it. The definition of marriage is by rights an issue for the states, and should remain as such.
Bush may get some of his base back, but it won’t be enough to make much of a difference. The FMA has only the slightest chance of ratification, and why Bush would waste his miniscule political capital on such an issue makes little sense to me.
The timing of this stunt strikes me as a particular gamble, with the special election in CA-50 tomorrow. San Diego County is a region of country club Republicans motivated to vote GOP on the basis of “MAKING ME MONEY!!!!”, not over codifying discrimination for their homosexual sons, nieces, and cousins. The momentum Bilbray may have had over the immigration issue could be squandered if sane Republicans recoil in disgust tomorrow over their party’s transparent and biennial ploy to appeal to the shallow bigots in their midst. Bush is counting on small minds to yield votes for his party, but those whose minds aren’t quite so tiny may choose not to reward this appeal when they head to the ballot box.