Don’t Write The Joebituary Yet…

It looks like Ned Lamont beat Joe Lieberman, exactly as predicted. The final tally is likely to be somewhere around 52%-48% – which isn’t as large as some of the polls would have predicted. I’m curious to see what the exit polls reveal in the race – I’m guessing that many Lamont supporters ended up going with the devil they knew at the last minute, explaining why Lieberman had a pretty significant last-minute surge that put him closer to Lamont than the pre-primary polls had indicated.

I think this means that Lieberman is almost certain to be reelected. The CW on this race was that Lieberman would be toast if he didn’t come within 10 points of Lamont – 4 points means that Lamont is in trouble. Plus, with Lieberman’s recent gains, that shows that there’s growing skepticism about the political neophyte Lamont – a man whose vapid responses to challenging policy questions show him to be an incredibly poor candidate. If Lamont can’t pull off a big win in a primary like this, his chance of winning in the general seems much slimmer than it did previously.

Of course, a Democratic Party divided is excellent news for the GOP who can now more credibly paint the Democrats as the party of weakness on national security. The American people see the situation in Iraq for what it is – a dangerous and volatile period in which everything can fall apart in an instant, but that doesn’t mean they favor cutting and running. Americans don’t walk away from a fight, and while they don’t like protracted military engagements, that doesn’t change when the going gets tough.

Obviously the Kossacks will crow about the power of the “netroots” – but ultimately that power only serves the interests of making the Democratic Party more extreme and less electable.

Tonight’s message to the American public: there’s no room for moderates in the Democratic Party. That’s hardly the kind of message that’s going to resonate with the American electorate, and for good reason.

UPDATE: On the bad side, I’ll now feel somewhat obligated to root for a liberal Democrat. Granted, it’s rooting for a decent and patriotic liberal Democrat over a liberal Democrat who is being backed by some of the most distasteful group of extremists in recent American history, but I’ll still feel dirty about it…

UPDATE: On the bright side, RCP says this is the worst possible outcome for the Democrats. They’re right: a Lieberman win would reassure Blue Dog Democrats that the nutroots hadn’t taken over. A huge Lamont win would prevent what is sure to be a vitriolic and divisive campaign. This result ensures a divided Democratic Party.

Also, perhaps my psychic powers aren’t so weak afterall.

UPDATE: And already Kos is making his demands. I guess we know who’s in charge of the party now, don’t we?

It’s hardly surprising that at least one moderate Democrat is saying enough is enough.

One thought on “Don’t Write The Joebituary Yet…

  1. “The final tally is likely to be somewhere around 52%-48% – which isn’t as large as some of the polls would have predicted”

    Which is the worst-case scenario for Democrats in this race, as mentioned on RCP but for somewhat different reasons than they claim. I was hoping for either a Lieberman win or a Lamont blowout that would quell Lieberman’s dreams of an independent bid. A self-absorbed asswipe to the end, Lieberman can’t take his primary defeat like a man, and despite an insistence of being a “loyal Democrat”, stands poised to sabotage the party’s chances nationwide in the fall by draining resources on this race and forcing the national discussion to be about him rather than defeating Republicans.

    “If Lamont can’t pull off a big win in a primary like this, his chance of winning in the general seems much slimmer than it did previously.”

    Possibly, but Lieberman will now lurch ferociously to the right to appeal to Republicans in the general election, alienating many of those who voted for him last night. Furthermore, he’ll now be abandoned by virtually all of the Democratic establishment and faces the likely loss of committee assignments in the Senate since he’ll no longer be a Democrat, reducing the amount of pork he’s able to deliver. With each passing day, there will be fewer reasons for non-Republicans (the vast majority in Connecticut) to vote for Lieberman.

    “Obviously the Kossacks will crow about the power of the “netroots” – but ultimately that power only serves the interests of making the Democratic Party more extreme and less electable.”

    The “netroots” tsunami is now officially unstoppable. It’s Kos’ world. The rest of us just happen to live in it.

    “Tonight’s message to the American public: there’s no room for moderates in the Democratic Party.”

    That’s the message for those whose IQ scores fail to reach three digits anyway. Considering that Lamont appears to be just as “moderate” as Lieberman on most issues, that’s gonna be a hard sell. Of course, the GOP has successfully moved the goalposts of “scary liberal” well to the right of where Richard Nixon once stood in the past three decades, so it might work.

    In other news, Club for Growth-endorsed uber-conservative wingnut flamethrower Tim Walberg defeated moderate, decent and patriotic Congressman Joe Schwarz last night in MI-07. It might actually have been a good thing because if Schwarz had won, the obviously insane ideologues in the Club for Growth might have waged violence against Schwarz or his family. They’re just that crazy!

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