Pollster John Zogby is now predicting that President Bush will win next week, contrary to his earlier prediction of a Kerry victory:
Pollster John Zogby surprised the political world back in April with a long-range prediction that John Kerry would defeat George W. Bush for president. On Monday this week, Zogby told me, he changed his mind. He now thinks the president is more likely to be re-elected because he has reinforced support from his base, including married white women.
That conclusion would be a surprise for frantically nervous Republicans and cautiously upbeat Democrats entering the campaign’s final days. In fact, nobody, including Zogby and all the other polltakers, can be sure who will win this election. Yet, it is clear that President Bush’s strategists have succeeded in solidifying his base to a degree that makes it much harder to defeat him next Tuesday.
It’s welcome news, but it ain’t over until the fat lady is out there belting out _La Traviata_. It’s more critical than ever for every Republican to get to the polls next week and help ensure that President Bush stays in the White House and this country remains safe.
Slightly more than a week ago, Zogby said that the election was “Kerry’s to lose” and all but assured the interviewer of a Dem victory. Maybe the pathological flip-flopper Dick Morris has infiltrated his body. Then again, it’s easy to see how Zogby could be wishy-washy given the erratic numbers in his polls. On Saturday, Bush had a huge day in Zogby’s tracking poll, leading by seven points. Yesterday, on the other hand, was “a big day for Kerry” where Zogby talked about how Kerry had solidified the Dems base. His state polls have been equally schizophrenic with Colorado going Kerry and Michigan moving from a 10-point Kerry lead to a tie in three days. If I were Zogby, I think I’d get out of the predictions business and spend a little more time making sure his polls are scientific. By the way, when did Zogby predict Bush would win? I can’t get into the Chicago Sun-Times website. I bet that if he made that prediction early this week, he could already have changed his mind again since then.
you want to know why bush will win read this story about missing ballots
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/3960679.stm
I don’t know if Novak is credible or not, but Zogby was on CNBC last night saying that he thought Kerry would win.
Ah, and now I cannot even view G.W.B.’s official webpage anymore – apparently all non-US internet users are blocked off. Access denied – You don’t have permission to access “http://www.georgewbush.com/” on this server. Thanks for transparency.
“President Bush stays in the White House and this country remains safe”
Yeah that is very important: the US remain safe.
Talking about polls and safety, an interesting figure is to be released today: the first estimation of iraqis death toll from 2003 (and the war ain’t over yet!!):
100 000 violent deaths!!!
Most of them being kids and women!!
33 times the WTC!!
Good job Dumbya! Keep spreading democracy and keep the US safe!!
The reason why the Bush website isn’t accessible outside the US is to save bandwidth – there’s no sense advertising to people who can’t vote.
As for the estimate of 100,000 casualties, the methdology of the poll wouldn’t even pass a basic statistics course. And then there’s this:
Guess what, the terrorists are the ones indescriminately killing women and children. It’s the terrorists who blew up dozens of children with a vehicle-mounted IED in Baghdad a few weeks ago. It’s Zarqawi and his bunch of thugs beheading people.
If the US pulls out, 100,000 would be a drop in the bucket compared to what would happen next.
The reason why the Bush website isn’t accessible outside the US is to save bandwidth I have to believe you on this one, as, after all, I cannot check the webpage to see how they aruge. Kerry doesn’t seem to bother about band withs, though.
there’s no sense advertising to people who can’t vote. So those Americans in Germany don’t count? Might even be true, considering the difficulties some reported they had getting registered and getting all the necessary forms.
J.