As expected, Republican Brian Bilbray defeated Democratic challenger Francine Busby in the special election to replace disgraced former Congressman Randy “Duke” Cunningham. The finally tally was 49.5%-45%.
As much as people are wanting this to be some bellwether election, it probably isn’t. San Diego County is one of the more Republican areas in California. Plus, Busby’s idiotic comment about “not needing papers to vote” probably sank her ‐ especially since it was caught on tape and was so damning. Busby needed all the help she could get in a heavily Republican district, and that comment essentially sealed her fate, moving the race from a potential nail-biter to a clear win for Bilbray. Local elections tend to be about local issues, and special elections don’t always presage national results, although this election does give Republican strategists at least a small ray of sunshine.
Illegal Immigration Anxiety 1, McCain-Kennedy 0
I fear this pattern will play out throughout Middle America. The only saving the Dems from themselves is that the two leading Republicans are just as beholden to the whims of modern-day slavemasters.
Except it was a fairly close election in a strongly GOP district…
…that took $5 million for the GOP to pull off. Getting a district as safe as CA-50 shouldn’t be that expensive, or that close. Given how low the GOP-controlled congress’s approval ratings are, this could easily be a sign of a major shakeup in November.
Nicq, I like to think so, but the partisan spread in CA-50 isn’t nearly as wide as it in many of the other perceived battleground races that the Dems have to win if they’re gonna take back the House. And will it be any easier to win the populist conservatives of KY-04, IN-08, and NC-11 (particularly as the Dems embrace wildly unpopular immigration legislation) than it was to win over the country club Republicans of suburban San Diego? I’m not completely demoralized, but Busby’s inability to overperform John Kerry let alone win, this race tells me the Democratic tide may end up being more a breeze.