Category: Politics

Reacting To The First McCain/Obama Debate

Here’s my take: in the economic section, Obama very narrowly won. On the foreign policy section, McCain won. In the end, the dynamics of this race won’t change. McCain didn’t do what he needed to do to take Obama out, but Obama didn’t do anything to take down McCain either. McCain had the best lines of the night, especially on talking to Iran. However, the foreign policy part of the debate was overshadowed by the economic parts, which gives the narrowest advantage to Obama.

Overall, the quick reaction from the punditocracy seems to be that McCain knocked Obama off balance. To an extent, that’s right. In retrospect, I may have to revise my opinion of this debate…

Bill Kristol thinks that McCain got under Obama’s skin. I’m going to have to watch parts of this debate on YouTube again… I saw some of that, but perhaps not liveblogging the debate caused me to miss some crucial details.

Over at The Corner, the contributors are saying that McCain won. I don’t see this as a clear win, but I could see this as a narrow McCain win.

At NRO’s Campaign Spot, some data that independents weren’t wooed by Obama. I think that Obama’s demeanor hurt him, even though he did well at the first part of the debate.

I consider Megan McArdle to be one of the most lucid Obama supporters out there. And she has a lot of good things to say about McCain tonight. That’s probably a sign that Obama didn’t win.

Another Obama supporter, Ann Althouse seems pretty harsh on Obama as well.

I think that as much as Obama “won”, he won by not totally losing. This wasn’t a game changer, but I’m starting to think that McCain probably won on points, especially looking at the reasonable Obama supporter’s reactions.

If you think that the prediction markets are any guide, then McCain won tonight, as Obama’s “share” price went down throughout the debate. Then again, Obama still retained his lead.

Frank Luntz on FoxNews and his focus groups give an edge to Obama.

In the end, McCain probably did win the debate, but Obama didn’t lose, which still gives Obama the lead. Still, remember 2004. Kerry won the debate, but ended up losing anyway. Looking back, I do think that McCain got under Obama’s skin, and it showed. There are two more debates to go, plus the Palin/Biden dustup. This race ain’t over, not by a longshot…

Liveblogging The Presidential Debate

I will be doing my customary liveblogging of tonight’s Presidential debate in Oxford, Mississippi. This will be a major event in the campaign, and while the subject is ostensibly to be foreign policy, expect that the debate will be predominantly about the state of the economy. As always, analysis and reaction to the debate will follow.

UPDATE: 7:50 PM The debate will begin shortly. Right now, the conventional wisdom is that McCain is at the disadvantage. That’s probably correct, but the question remains whether that will be the case at the end of the night.

Jim Leherer of PBS is the moderator tonight.

UPDATE: 7:55 PM The economy will probably dominate this debate, even though it is supposed to be about foreign policy. The Obama people think that will help him.

UPDATE: 8:00 PM The debate is about to begin. Leherer is at his table, but the candidats have not yet taken the stage.

UPDATE: 8:02 PM Jim Lehrer is giving the ground rules. The global financial crisis will be on the agenda. The candidates are taking the stage.

UPDATE: 8:03 PM Lehrer begins by quoting Eisenhower and the first questin is on the economy. Obama is first to answer.

He’s already falling into the trap of winding up to the answer. But his main points are fairly clear. The problem is that four points is a bit much. Of course, he goes after Bush.

UPDATE: 8:05 PM McCain mentions Sen. Kennedy. Which is nice, but he needs to be stronger.

McCain’s answer is good, but it’s not as strong as it could be right now. He seems to be endorsing much of the Republican plan.

McCain’s energy is down. This doesn’t help him on the age issue.

UPDATE: 8:08 PM Neither really answered the question. Lehrer, doing a good job as moderator, calls them on it. Obama goes right back to blaming Bush. The problem is that unless McCain does something, Obama will get away with it.

McCain’s statement about foreign oil was out of place.

UPDATE: 8:10 PM McCain’s point about accounability is very good. But he needs to be making this point more forcefully.

Obama’s message is clear: Bush is at fault. What is McCain’s message? He needs to find it fast, or he’ll end up getting steamrolled.

Lehrer wants more interplay between the candidates. That would be good.

UPDATE: 8:13 PM McCain needs to be stressing his experience right now. Don’t agree, distinguish.

So far Obama is treading water, and so is McCain. That gives the advantage to Obama, however.

UPDATE: 8:14 PM McCain hits on spending. Good. He needs to hit that point strongly all night. His energy picked up when he talks about spending. He’s getting into the groove, and now he’s going on the offense. He’s doing better, but is it better enough?

UPDATE: 8:17 PM Obama hits back on taxes. And again, the comparisons with Bush.

Obama’s attack was good, but McCain’s response was good. Hitting back on spending was also a good move. The clash tonight is really picking up.

McCain needs to portray Obama as a tax-and-spend liberal. He’s close, but he needs to make the contrast clear.

UPDATE: 8:20 PM Obama is on message. McCain is also finding his message. I think that Obama has a narrow edge, but I think McCain’s message is resonating.

The problem with this whole discussion is that taxes doesn’t have much to do with the situation at hand. Lehrer should try to keep this debate more focused.

Obama’s message on tax simplification is a strong one. But it’s not as though that he’s got much credibility on cutting taxes.

UPDATE: 8:25 PM McCain finally stresses the value of his record. That helps him. He’s trying to get under Obama’s skin, which is the smart strategy.

UPDATE: 8:26 PM Lehrer gets back to the original question. Lehrer is very hands-off tonight.

His question about how to pay for the bailout is a smart one.

Obama immediately strays from the topic. He may be a lawyer, but no advocate could get away with this in an oral argument. Why don’t we have federal appellate judges moderate these debates? That would be interesting…

UPDATE: 8:28 PM McCain talks about cutting spending. He says he would eliminate ethanol subsidies. Oh well, he wasn’t going to win Iowa anyway.

Now he’s going on defense spending. This is a smart move on his part. Defense spending is out of control. He’s painting himelf as a reformer, but he could be more forceful.

Obama: I’ll spend more. McCain: I’ll spend less. Obama’s answer was a complete tangent from the question. Lehrer, to his credit, seizes on this.

Call me formal, but I don’t like this first name basis thing.

UPDATE: 8:31 PM Obama mentions the Obama-Coburn bill. Which, to his credit, was a very good bill.

Lehrer wants an answer. McCain proposes a spending freeze. That’s a good policy.

Obama wants to spend more. Lehrer is hitting him harder on this issue than McCain is.

McCain goes for nuclear power. Good for him. Very good for him. But could he be more ambitious than 2030?

UPDATE: 8:34 PM Lehrer wants a simple answer to a direct question. McCain’s spending freeze was an answer. Obama just keeps going back to how much more he wants to spend. McCain should hit back on that.

“As President, I would have to make some tough decisions…” Well, duh. That’s not an answer.

UPDATE: 8:36 PM McCain hits Obama on spending. I would have loved for him to say that government-run healthcare would be another Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Sadly, he didn’t hit on that point.

I think McCain’s anti-spending campaign will help him. Obama’s silly little lines against Bush are transparent. That’s what the Democrats want him to say, but McCain handled his response well. I don’t think that the whole McCain = Bush line works as well as they think. McCain is not Bush, and the differences are stark.

UPDATE: 8:39 PM Lehrer asks him about the lessons of Iraq. It’s a good question, and a softball for McCain. His answer is strong, even if his speaking style is not the best.

Obama’s response is predictable. The Democrats want to refight 2003 all over again. McCain needs to hit him hard on the Afghanistan issue. Can the American people trust Obama to tough it out in Afghanistan? It will be a tough fight, and Obama is opening himself up on this issue, and McCain should go after him on it.

UPDATE: 8:42 PM McCain hits him back on the surge issue. This is about judgment, and Obama’s judgment in the last two years has been wrong. Even if he was right then, that doesn’t mean that he has the judgment to lead.

Obama has to admit that the surge worked. Obama just set himself up for a smackdown by thinking that McCain supported the 2003—07 policy. He was one of the toughest critics of that strategy.

Obama’s rate of speech really increased in that last answer. That seems to be a tell with him.

So far, McCain seems to be narrowly winning this part of the debate. Selling opposition to the war now is not easy as it was two years ago.

McCain did a smart thing by tying the victory in Iraq to winning in Afghanistan. He needs to hit that harder.

UPDATE: 8:47 PM Obama wants to refight the past. He’s clearly on the defensive right now, which does not help him. However, McCain needs to hit him on the Afghanistan issue.

For all the talk about McCain’s temper, Obama seems really testy right now. McCain hasn’t walked away with this, but he comes off with more credibility here.

UPDATE: 8:50 PM The next question is about Afghanistan. Obama repeats the lie that there was no al-Qaeda in Iraq before th
e war. McCain should call him on it.

Obama is doing fairly well here. His pronunciation of “Pakistan” is more correct, but it seems odd for an American to use it.

McCain talks about Pakistan. He needs to remind the American people that Pakistan is a nuclear power, and we don’t have the leverage.

He hits on how we need to apply the lessons of Iraq to Afghanistan. His answer is strong here. This is a reverse of the first half hour. Now Obama is treading water. Neither candidate has won, and neither has lost. McCain needs an advantage though, and so far the dynamics of this race have not changed.

UPDATE: 8:56 PM Obama’s response is fairly strong, but completely nondescript.

McCain talks about the Lebanon issue. He’s reinforcing his judgment on the issues, but it seems out of place here. Then again, Obama hasn’t made the case here. McCain should remind the country that his son is in the military.

McCain has the gravitas advantage here.

“I’ve got a bracelet too.” Gag me with a spoon. Obama’s logic here is silly. Yes, U.S. troops will have died in vain if we leave Iraq in tatters.

McCain’s attack on Afghanistan is right: Iraq and Afghanistan are linked, and not in the way Obama says they are.

UPDATE: 9:03 PM The next question is about Iran. McCain pushes a League of Democracies. This is one of my personal favorites. That’s an interesting tactic for him to take.

McCain takes a hawkish line on Iran. That’s exactly the line he needs to take.

Both candidates confuse the Iranian Revolutionary Guards with the former Iraqi Republican Guard.

Obama’s answer is basically a “me too” to McCain. If Obama thinks that we can get sanctions through with Russia and China, he’s an idiot.

Obama goes for the “direct democracy” line. That was stupid.

UPDATE: 9:08 PM McCain goes after Obama on speaking to Ahmadinejad. McCain’s energy level on this question is high. His answer is strong here.

Obama’s response about not inviting Ahmadinejad over for tea is cute, but his logic is completely wrong. Talking without preconditions does not mean what he apparently thinks it means.

Obama is basically agreeing with McCain, but doesn’t understand that he is. McCain would not talk to Iran unless they stop threatening Israel. Obama seems to agree. That is a precondition, Sen. Obama.

UPDATE: 9:12 PM McCain gets in a good line about not having a seal yet. Nice.

McCain’s doing well here, and Obama keeps trying to interrupt. That doesn’t play well, I don’t think.

And still Obama doesn’t know what the phrase “without preconditions” means. If Obama wants to run on a platform of talking to Iran, go ahead.

McCain just had the first strong moment of the debate. Too bad he didn’t get to that earier. Could this help him? Probably not, but it could hurt Obama to a small extent. Security-minded voters already support McCain, and Obama has done nothing to change that tonight.

UPDATE: 9:17 PM The question about Russia. Obama just said he supports NATO expansion. I guess Palin’s comments in that regard aren’t so dangerous now, since Obama just endorsed the same principles.

McCain comes out swinging. His line about Putin was great. His point about energy security is a good one. I also note that he used the familiar form of the Georgian President’s name. Something that serves as a VERY subtle reminder that he knows what he’s talking about.

Watch Ukraine. Indeed.

Obama is right. There isn’t much daylight between them, which makes Obama look like a “me too” candidate. Obama hurt himself on Iran, and he’s treading water here. McCain has the advantage here, but this election won’t be decided on these issues.

Obama has a great stage presence, which isn’t surprising. But McCain is at least holding is own. So far McCain has had the strongest moment with the talking to Iran bit, but neither candidate has drawn real blood.

UPDATE: 9:24 PM McCain gets a riposte on energy, and Obama keeps interrupting. I don’t think that helps him. “I have never objected to nuclear waste.” Quoting people out of context is fun.

Final question: how likely is another 9/11? McCain has the first crack. Again, he draws the contrast between himself and Bush.

Obama keeps glowering at McCain. His presence has been strong, but that kind of thing doesn’t look good for him.

Both candidate say we’re safer, but not safe. Which is true. Obama is right about chemical plants and ports. However, suitcase nukes may not actually exist. (Although they are possible in theory.) Nuclear missiles do.

Obama talks about us being disrespected in the world. B.S. If that were true, why have pro-American leaders replaced anti-American ones across Europe?

McCain comes out swinging on Iraq again. For once, I don’t think that the anti-war side is that strong. It never is when we’re clearly winning.

UPDATE: 9:32 PM Obama accues us of being “solely focused” on Iraq. Other than where we’re not. Obama is saying what his side wants him to say, which isn’t going to resonate with security voters. He goes back to the economy, which is more solid grond for him.

We’re not talking about losing this war? Actually, Senator Obama, that’s what you would have had us do.

McCain lays it on the line, and even compares Obama to Bush in his stubbornness. That’s the kind of tactical move he should have been making all night. Again, Obama has to overcome McCain’s credibility on these issues, and he just hasn’t been able to do that. The problem for McCain is that Obama does not need to do so to keep his lead.

UPDATE: 9:35 PM Does Obama really believe that the world doesn’t see us in the same light these days? And that investing in education will fix that?

McCain gets the last word in. His push for normalizing relations with Vietnam is a great story, and he should tell it more often.

The debate is over. Reactions to follow.

What McCain Needs To Say Tonight To Defeat Obama

John McCain will attend tonight’s Presidential debate in Oxford, Mississippi.

McCain has an opportunity to take Obama out, and it looks like he is going to go for it. The way he can do this is to run against the “politics as usual” in Washington. His dangerous political gambit this week can pay off for him, but only if he makes it work tonight. That is his “must-do” for this debate.

Here is what he needs to say in his own words: the American people are sick and tired of politics as usual in this country. They are sick and tired of a lack of leadership from Washington. The choice to suspend the campaign was a necessary one because partisan politics has to come second and the country has to come first.

But moreover, he needs to go on the offensive. Here is what he can do to deliver the knockout punch. Republicans won’t like this, but it will help McCain win. The argument is this: for the last eight years we have had a political culture that put politics above country. Sen. Obama’s decision to carry on his campaign while the economy was collapsing was just like President Bush sitting back while the levees collapsed in New Orleans. President Bush said “heckuva job, Brownie.” Sen. Obama has Jim Johnson, one of the architects of the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac disaster as his campaign advisor.

We don’t need another four years of politics first. When the country is in crisis, politicking is not the right response.

That will provoke Obama like nothing else. It may offend some Republicans, and it is somewhat unfair to President Bush. But McCain is not Bush and has to distance himself from the failures of the Bush Administration.

He can turn this whole series of events against Sen. Obama. He can make this debate a turning point. He can turn this into Obama’s Katrina, if he has the guts to do this. I know he does.

The question is will he?

UPDATE: Jim Geraghty thinks that agreeing to the debate was mistake as it undercuts McCain’s message. If a deal emerges today, perhaps not. It is a risky move, but that can be erased if McCain handles the aftermath well enough. Obama thinks he has the upper hand here, which means he’s going to go into this thing cocky. McCain needs to be able to turn that against him.

McCain’s Gambit

When I heard of McCain’s decision to “suspend” his campaign and go to D.C. to work on the bailout, I had two reactions:

  1. This is the dumbest thing a candidate could possibly do.
  2. This was a brilliant move that will help cement McCain’s “Country First” theme in a way that nothing else could.

I still don’t know which it is.

Sen. McCain may be on to something here. People are sick and tired of Washington politics. We talk about the President’s abysmal approval ratings, but Congress’ are even worse. As this nation faces the greatest economic crisis we have faced since the Great Depression, we need real political leadership in Washington.

John McCain went back to D.C. and did his duty. Barack Obama ended up having to go back to D.C. at the behest of the President, and missed an opportunity to join with McCain on this issue.

I’m leaning more towards the “politically brilliant” theory—but McCain needs to take the step of connecting this to the larger “Country First” theme of his campaign. Either as his introduction to the debate or in a major address tomorrow, he needs to state very clearly why he took the action he did. All he needs to say in essence is that his country needed a leader, and that call was far more important than playing politics. If he can get that message out, I think this will be a political win for him.

McCain acted admirably in doing what he did. Even Bill Clinton said as much. Politics aside, his actions were right because we don’t need more politicians blowing smoke up our collective asses. We need men and women willing to put the national interest above getting elected. If we had a spirit like that in Washington all along, we would not be in this crisis right now.

If this was a political move on McCain’s part, it was an incredibly gutsy move. Something tells me that it was not. This was John McCain being John McCain. If he can explain himself well and demonstrate that quality of his character in the next few days, it could go a long way towards ensuring that Sen. McCain becomes President McCain.

McCain’s Rapid Reaction

As the situation on Wall Street develops and worries grow about the economy, Sen. McCain already has an effective ad out discussing the issue:

Now, I’m not sure that this problem will be solvable with more regulation—the market is already doing enough to punish those firms that engaged in the trade of “liar loans” in the subprime market. However, McCain is pounding the issue of which candidate is best suited to lead this country in a crisis. When it comes to leadership, McCain has a decisive edge both substantively and in the polls.

The looming financial crisis is based on bipartisan stupidity in the creation of GSEs like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. However, Sen McCain has been on top of this issue for months now. Obama’s pick of Sen. Biden is VP hurts his ability to champion reform—Biden has cozy ties to the banking industry, especially Bank of America/NBNA. McCain and Palin have the opportunity to once again display themselves as the champions of substantive reform rather that the nondescript idea of “change.”

This ad shows that the McCain team can rapidly react to changing circumstances and use them to reinforce their political narratives. The Obama campaign does not seem to have the same ability—at least not that they’ve been able to show. Presidential politics is a game of maneuver, and McCain’s team has some master tacticians. Whether Obama can catch up is anyone’s guess, but going negative and attacking McCain won’t be the way to do it.

Minnesota Now A Swing State?

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune‘s Minnesota Poll is infamous for overstating Democratic performance. Whether it is by sampling bias or methodology, the poll has consistently tended to overstate the performance of Democratic candidates in Minnesota.

Which is why, for the Obama campaign, having the Minnesota Poll showing Minnesota dead even should be a major worry.

Political campaigns are all about momentum. If Obama has to shore up support in Minnesota, that means less time and money to keep Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and other potential swing states in play. That gives McCain the advantage. If Minnesota is competitive, states like Michigan and Wisconsin are in play as well. Obama cannot afford to lose those states if he wants to win. McCain has the momentum, and so far Obama has been unable to wrestle it away from him. If McCain continues to pick up independent voters and Obama continues to flounder, the race could end up being a blowout.

This summer, it was looking like McCain had virtually no chance. Obama had the potential for a massive upset. Today, the electoral map has radically changed. McCain is picking up support in the key states he must hold, like Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Indiana. He is putting pressure on Obama in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan. If McCain can hold on to Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, he can win. If he can do that and peel off one of the “blue” states, Obama will be shut out.

This race keeps getting more and more interesting, and it will come down to whether McCain can hold his momentum through the next few weeks. Politics is continually fluid, and McCain could blow it or Obama could surge ahead. However, the trendlines now clearly favor McCain, and Obama is running a truly competitive race against a candidate who has displayed an astounding knack for knocking Obama off his feet. The idea that this election, which was looking to be a Democratic blowout, is now close goes to show just how good the McCain team has gotten after months of lowered expectations and near disasters.

Obama’s “Pig” Comment And Unforced Errors

It seems as though everyone has seized on Barack Obama’s comment about “putting lipstick on a pig” yesterday&mash;and Glenn Reynolds has the links to prove it.

At first, I figured that there was no way that Obama could have been that stupid—he would never be dumb enough to make that big a gaffe. But in context, it does sound like he’s calling Palin a “pig” and then goes on to compare McCain to an “old fish.” That also seems to be the way that the audience interpreted it.

This was an incredibly dumb move by Obama. It was an unforced error, and comments like that are enough to sink a political career. Obama is a gifted rhetorician, but without the crutch of a teleprompter, he makes mistake after mistake after mistake. He’s as gaffe prone as President Bush, and now the media is starting to take notice of this.

Obama’s campaign is making mistakes at the worst time. Not accepting public financing means that he has to do 40 fundraisers this month—time that could have been spent on the campaign trail. What’s worse about that is that the message that a Democratic donor wants to hear is not going to be the message that a swing voter wants. Obama cannot afford to swing to the left now. but his need for cash forces him to play to two audiences while McCain can play to independents.

From the beginning, I’ve said that Obama has never run a truly competitive national race. The bruising primary with Clinton seemed to have shown that he could handle it. Now, I’m beginning to wonder how much of that victory was the collapse of Clinton rather than the skill of Obama. Obama has spent the first part of this week on the defensive, which is not where a candidate should be. He’s making errors, looking foolish, and undercutting his claim to be something more than your typical politician.

Obama’s idiotic “pig” comment doesn’t itself mean all that much. What it does suggest is that Obama’s mouth is becoming a problem for him—and with less than 60 days to go in this election, a major unforced error can be fatal.

UPDATE: The overly whiny way that Obama is handling this situation doesn’t suit him. Comparing this to “Swift Boating?” Is that any way to make this controversy go away?

Obama is clearly rattled now, and coming off as desperate and whiny doesn’t make Obama look like a strong leader. Obama does not play well on the defensive, and it shows.

Could Michigan Swing To McCain?

A recent poll in Michigan shows Obama with the slenderest of leads, and many undecided independent voters. If Michigan goes to McCain, Obama is going to have a very difficult time making up for its electoral votes. If Michigan and Pennsylvania swing to McCain, it’s over for Obama. That scenario is unlikely, but it’s well within the realm of possibility.

McCain and Palin have a chance to reach out to the blue-collar Reagan Democrat voters that have always been skeptical of Obama. McCain is already peeilng away some Democratic voters, and if that trend holds, Obama is in severe trouble.

This race is very much up in the air, and many key states are close. However, the momentum is on McCain’s side, and if they are able to capitalize on that momentum in the weeks ahead, it is possible that close states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania could shift to McCain. If that happens, even Obama gains in Colorado and New Mexico won’t be enough to save his chances at the White House.