McCain Gets A Bounce

The first batch of post-RNC polls are out, and they contain good news for John McCain.. In the Gallup Tracking poll, McCain is up 3% against Obama. In the Rassmussen Tracking poll, McCain is tied 48% to 48%.

These polls show that McCain did get a bounce from the RNC, and that this race is very fluid. It would not be surprising if these numbers get better for McCain by mid-week as weekend polls sometimes undercount Republicans.

I am going to go off on a limb and predict that Obama will underperform his polling numbers—just as he did in New Hampshire in January. I believe that there is a strong “bandwagon” effect among Obama voters and that McCain will actually peel away some of the Hillary voters that have “come home” to the Democrats after the DNC.

Watch the swing state vote—states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan will decide this election. Obama needs some of the key Western states to win. McCain must take Ohio and Florida to win. Obama has to hold all of Kerry’s states and peel off enough electoral votes for the red states to win.

If Pennsylvania goes to McCain, Obama is toast. He is unlikely to pull enough additional electoral votes to make up for that loss. If I were McCain, I’d be having Sarah Palin circling the Great Lakes states while McCain pulls Colorado, Nevada, and possibly New Mexico from Obama.

This race is completely up in the air. McCain has taken some of the wind out of Obama’s sails. He has an opportunity to run as an “agent of change” and beat the prevailing political climate. Obama is now on the defensive, and could lose. The debates will be critical, and the next two months will be some of the most exciting in American politics yet.

UPDATE: The latest Gallup/USA Today tracking poll has even better news for McCain: a lead of 10% in a survey of likely voters. That poll is likely an outlier, but there’s little doubt that McCain has gotten a bounce from his convention, and that Obama’s lead has evaporated.

UPDATE: Today (Sept. 8), McCain has a 3.2% lead in the RealClearPolitics average. All the major polls show the race either tied, or with McCain in the lead. There’s no doubt that McCain got a bounce from the convention, and that it was a substantial one. The question will be whether he can make the best of that momentum into Election Day.

In TV Ratings, McCain Beats Obama

This is surprising to me, but it appears that the preliminary TV ratings for McCain’s speech last night were higher than Obama’s. Granted, the numbers could change, but I didn’t think the numbers would even be close.

Gov. Palin’s speech had less than one million fewer viewers than Obama’s speech, but was carried on six networks to Obama’s ten. Obama had just over 37 million viewers to Palin’s over 36 million. Palin’s speech was the most-watched speech by a Vice Presidential contender in history.

What does this mean? Obviously the more viewers the better. Obama got fawning press and put on a great show. McCain’s speech was natural, and I have a feeling that it will play better with independent voters. If so, it is quite possible that McCain will get a stronger-than-expected convention bounce in the next set of polls. As with Obama, we have to wait until late next week to see if the bounce lasts, but McCain and Palin have undoubtedly exceeded expectations. If McCain outperforms Obama in the debates and reaches out to independent voters, this race could shift dramatically in the 60 days until Election Day.

McCain Was Himself

John McCain will never be a great orator. He’s no Obama, neither is he a Sarah Palin. But last night’s speech wasn’t about lofty rhetoric: it was about John McCain being John McCain. There was no attempt to gild the lily: instead McCain had the wisdom to realize that the only way he can win is to change the nature of this race.

Between Sen. McCain’s speech and Gov. Palin’s tour de force, this election is no longer what it was before the convention began.

Before, the election was a referendum on Obama. McCain seemed to be fighting a battle to introduce enough doubts in voter’s minds about Obama to win. This was unlikely to work, and probably would have resulted in a narrow Obama win.

Today, this election is about something different: it is about a clash of visions. John McCain has taken up the mantle of a kind of political populism. He is running against Washington D.C. and the political establishment. That is a battle he can win.

He did the right thing. The approval rating of Congress is abysmal. People are disenchanted with the politics as usual. Obama was gaining traction because he was a political outsider with a great gift for oratory and a masterful command of rhetoric. He offered a nondescript vision of “change” and “hope” that was politically compelling, especially to the disenchanted left.

McCain had to offer something different. In the end, what he’s offering is more in line with the American spirit than what Obama is. Obama wants to give you vague hope and change; McCain wants to go to Washington and throw the bums out. This is a “throw the bums out” election.

This election can be 1992 or 1994, depending on what party can best bring a vision of where the country should go in the future.

Obama wants to argue that McCain is Bush 2.0. If that’s the best they can do, then they will lose. That argument won’t fly after this convention, where we saw two styles that were vastly different than that of Bush and Cheney. McCain’s story is so different that Bush’s that it is going to be difficult, if not impossible, for the Obama team to try to paint them as mirror images. It is not a message that will resonate with voters, and it just sounds desperate. It’s the same strategy that the Republicans tried in 2006 when they tried to tag every Democrat with the “dangerous liberal” tag. It didn’t work, because the Republicans never presented a real agenda.

The Republican National Convention was a success. McCain leaves this great state with a political powerhouse as a running mate, an energized base, and a new message. That’s what he needed to do.

This convention lacked the flash and polish of the Democratic Convention in Denver, but it is memorable not for its showmanship, but for producing a new political star. People will remember this convention, and this could very well be the week that leads McCain to another come-from-behind victory in November.

Sarah Palin Was The Right Choice At The Right Time

We just saw the first female President of the United States give the first major speech of her national career.

Sarah Palin is the most natural political talent I’ve ever seen. Tonight, she very well may have won this election. She was strong, engaging, powerful, and unafraid. She went after Obama with the glee of a happy warrior. She set the tone for this campaign in a way that was strategically brilliant. She put the country on notice that if she didn’t know much about foreign policy, she’s a very quick study.

Her approach was natural, she spoke directly to the people. She is not the lofty rhetorician that Barack Obama is—but her style is uniquely American. Only she could have delivered that speech.

Throughout this election, Republicans have been looking for the next Ronald Reagan—another Great Communicator.

We found her.

Palin And The Politics Of Personal Destruction

Megan McArdle has an eminently sensible take on the whole Sarah Palin “scandal”. Needless to say, when someone like Ms. McArdle—who is an Obama supporter—is so disgusted with the left’s rhetoric, it signals that these juvenile and disgusting attacks are likely to backfire. As she puts it:

Sorry, I must have been confused. I thought I lived in a civilized society.

This is news, of course. But it is not particularly interesting news. It’s hardly the first shotgun wedding the world has ever witnessed, not even of a prominent politician’s daughter. It has basically nothing to do with her fitness to be the vice president. The people acting as if this matters deeply should be as ashamed of themselves as they claim to be of Sarah Palin’s behavior. …

On Sarah Palin as a VP I have no particular opinion, except that she doesn’t make me any more interested in voting for John McCain. But the people criticizing her are making me considerably less interested in voting for Obama. If this sort of deranged logic produces unwavering support for Obama, I have to question my own judgement.

The MoveOn.org/Daily Kos crowd is playing with fire here. They have no idea—not even the faintest inkling of a clue—of just how badly all this will play for them. They honestly seem to think that all “values voters” match their stereotypes, and that the Palin issue is some kind of magic bullet against her.

Make no mistake: the left is afraid of Sarah Palin. They are afraid of having the most powerful woman in the country be a pro-life, pro-gun conservative. They cannot stand someone they view as not falling within their carefully-drawn definition of what a woman should think.

The depths they are plumbing to attack Gov. Palin and her family are not a sign of the weakness of the pick, they are a sign of abject terror. People in a position of strength don’t need to go after a 17-year-old girl to make their points.

They are afraid of what Gov. Palin means for this race—and they well should be.

Where Was This Guy Six Months Ago?

Fred Thompson just gave one of the best political speeches I’ve ever heard. He not only knows how to twist the knife, but his telling of McCain’s story was emotionally powerful.

Had he done this well in his campaign, he’d be the main attraction of this campaign.

One of my favorite parts?

Now our opponents tell you not to worry about their tax increases.

They tell you they are not going to tax your family.

No, they’re just going to tax “businesses”! So unless you buy something from a “business”, like groceries or clothes or gasoline … or unless you get a paycheck from a big or a small “business”, don’t worry … it’s not going to affect you.

They say they are not going to take any water out of your side of the bucket, just the “other” side of the bucket! That’s their idea of tax reform.

UPDATE: Joe Lieberan also did a good jab of reaching out to independents and Democrats. I disagree with 90% of what Lieberman believes in, but he is a patriot who truly does put “country first.” It couldn’t have been easy for him to buck his own party like this, but at least he has the political courage to put country above partisanship. We need more honorable opposition like him.

The Media’s Manufactured Palin ‘Scandal’

Historian Daniel J. Boorstin coined the term “pseudo-event” for an event designed solely to attract the media and not for any other real value. The current brouhaha over Bristol Palin is an ideal example of just such a pseudo-event. Here in the Twin Cities, the Palin news is being met with little concern. Instead, the reaction has been one of support for Ms. Palin and her family.

Of course, if all one did is follow the media line, one would thing the exact opposite.

The Chicago Tribune breathlessly proclaims that the news has Republicans “off balance”. The New York Times proclaims that Gov. Palin must not have been properly vetted. Liberal bloggers are already gleefully calling for Palin to resign—apparently some think that a woman should know her place and that raising a family and having a career is impossible.

This pick has the Democratic Party scrambling. If they continue this line of attack it will backfire on them. Do they really want to make an issue out of a 17-year-old girl?

This whole affair is a pseudo-event. It was crafted by the liberal left to try to drive a wedge between evangelicals and McCain. It will fail precisely because the media is arrogant to think that evangelical and values voters are as intolerant as they parody them to be. It is without substance, and it is gutter politics. Even Sen. Obama, much to his credit, has said this should be off-limits.

Gov. Palin is being attacked because she is a principled conservative and a woman. It just burns the left that the first female Vice President—and someday perhaps the first female President—would be someone who doesn’t share their views. The rank sexism of the attacks against Gov. Palin and her family show just how far the media will go to discredit her.

This pseudo-event will fail. It will create a backlash, and here in the Twin Cities it already has. If the Democrats and their media organs think they can win by attacking a young girl at her most vulnerable, they could not be more wrong.

Did Obama Get A Convention Bounce?

The RealClearPolitics polling average shows a typical 6–8% convention bounce for Barack Obama. These polls may be right, but note that all of them are polls conducted over a weekend—and there is anecdotal evidence that weekend polls favor Democrats. Even though the evidence is far from conclusive, Obama’s “bounce” is just that—a bounce. The dynamics of this race have not significantly changed, and such as they have, it’s more likely in McCain’s favor.

To be bold, I’m going to go out on a limb and say that Obama will underperform his polling numbers. The reasons aren’t as much due to race as the bandwagon effect. Some Clinton voters are “coming home” to Obama now, but they may tell the pollsters one thing, but do another. Remember Obama’s big lead in New Hampshire? As it turned out, the polls were wrong. I have a feeling that late breaking voters will break towards McCain. Voters who haven’t made up their minds tend to go to the “safe” choice, and here that choice is McCain—the more experienced candidate.

Much will be made of polling over the next 60 days, but polling is as much art as science. There’s plenty of reasons to think that conventional methodologies for political polling are breaking down. Polls give some indications of where things are headed, but they are in no ways dispositive.

Obama may have gotten a typical convention bounce, but he should be wiping the floor with McCain. An unpopular war, a deeply unpopular President, a Republican Party with an image problem—and yet Obama can only eke out a slender lead against McCain. McCain, to his credit, has proven to be a disciplined and effective candidate, and the results of the Presidential debates could be telling—there is a reason why Obama refused McCain’s invitation to do voter town halls.

One thing is clear: this race is not even close to over, and the predictions that Obama has this in the bag are unwarranted. McCain is much tougher than he appeared to be, and he could end up doing to Obama nationally what Clinton did to Obama in New Hampshire this winter.

Palin Is A Hit

In other Sarah Palin-related news, ABC reports that the Palin pick has greatly energized GOP voters and caused McCain to have his best fundraising month yet. The Palin pick gave McCain an estimated $10 million in new contributions.

The Democrats were counting on a big enthusiasm gap, but the Palin pick has the GOP base excited. For those of us who have had Gov. Palin on our political radar screens, this is not a surprise. Gov. Palin is not only a strong pick because of her gender—she’s a strong pick because of what she has accomplished is Alaska. There’s a good reason why she had an 80% approval rating in a state with a strong independent streak.

Gov. Palin was an inspired pick, and it not only ensured that Obama got virtually no bump from the convention, but has made the GOP grassroots give a lot more respect to the McCain team.

The Fruits Of Netroots Hate

I’ve long argued that the “netroots” are not going to help the Democratic Party, and the evidence keeps mounting up. Today, one of Hillary’s top fundraisers publicly threw his support to McCain. His reasoning is especially interesting:

John Coale, a prominent Washington lawyer, husband of Fox TV host Greta Van Susteren and a supporter of Sen. Hillary Clinton, announced today that he was supporting John McCain for president. Coale, who traveled with Sen. Clinton, President Clinton and her family through out the primary season, complained of sexism, and said the Democratic Party is “being taken over by the moveon.org types” in an exclusive interview with Newsweek.com’s Tammy Haddad.

The netroot’s war with Hillary exposed a level of hatred that was frequently disturbing. The sort of thing that they called Ann Coulter names for became common within the netroots. Any decency appears to go out the window for those who don’t toe the party line of the Kos/Olberman/MoveOn.org crowd. Even fellow Democrats are not immune.

If there is any doubt of the disgusting hyper-partisanship and rank sexism of the radical left today, just watch how they’re treating the pregnancy of Bristol Palin, Gov. Palin’s 17-year-old daughter. Apparently feminism doesn’t matter if you’re not a “right-thinking” woman. The attacks will keep coming—after all, when you think that anyone who disagrees is downright evil and must be stopped at all costs, attacking a 17-year-old girl in a vulnerable time is perfectly acceptable. Some people in this country are so filled with a blind partisan rage that nothing else matters.

Gov. Palin’s family is not a political issue. Ms. Palin made a mistake, but she is not treating her baby as a “punishment” as some would have her do. Instead, she is taking responsibility for her actions, she is going to marry the father of her child, and they will be excellent parents. That is the way responsible people act, whether the “netroots” understand it or not.

The displays of naked sexism, vile partisanship, and the politics of personal destruction coming from the left these days can’t be swept under the rug forever. If Obama continues to underperform with female voters it will be in no small part due to the despicable attacks against Sen. Clinton, Gov. Palin, and Bristol Palin. The far left simply cannot stomach the idea that the most powerful woman in America could be a woman who doesn’t share their political dogma. In their attacks against these women, they’re showing their true colors. The more they spread their hatred, the more they will end up undermining their own cause.

UPDATE: Sen. Obama has wisely said that Gov. Palin’s family is out of bounds. The problem is that the extremists in the “netroots” are unlikely to listen.