Tag: 2008

McCain’s Gambit

When I heard of McCain’s decision to “suspend” his campaign and go to D.C. to work on the bailout, I had two reactions:

  1. This is the dumbest thing a candidate could possibly do.
  2. This was a brilliant move that will help cement McCain’s “Country First” theme in a way that nothing else could.

I still don’t know which it is.

Sen. McCain may be on to something here. People are sick and tired of Washington politics. We talk about the President’s abysmal approval ratings, but Congress’ are even worse. As this nation faces the greatest economic crisis we have faced since the Great Depression, we need real political leadership in Washington.

John McCain went back to D.C. and did his duty. Barack Obama ended up having to go back to D.C. at the behest of the President, and missed an opportunity to join with McCain on this issue.

I’m leaning more towards the “politically brilliant” theory—but McCain needs to take the step of connecting this to the larger “Country First” theme of his campaign. Either as his introduction to the debate or in a major address tomorrow, he needs to state very clearly why he took the action he did. All he needs to say in essence is that his country needed a leader, and that call was far more important than playing politics. If he can get that message out, I think this will be a political win for him.

McCain acted admirably in doing what he did. Even Bill Clinton said as much. Politics aside, his actions were right because we don’t need more politicians blowing smoke up our collective asses. We need men and women willing to put the national interest above getting elected. If we had a spirit like that in Washington all along, we would not be in this crisis right now.

If this was a political move on McCain’s part, it was an incredibly gutsy move. Something tells me that it was not. This was John McCain being John McCain. If he can explain himself well and demonstrate that quality of his character in the next few days, it could go a long way towards ensuring that Sen. McCain becomes President McCain.

McCain/Palin In The Twin Cities

I am at the Twin Cities McCain/Palin rally. Lines are huge — big turnout. More later.

The hangar is packed, which is a good sign. Minnesota appears to be in play in this election. Could it go McCain? It seems unlikely, but a turnout like this is nothing to sneeze at. There is energy in this room today.

Something tells me that people really like Sarah Palin here….

There seems to be a lot of hockey moms here.

The Straight Talk Express is nearly here.

Judging from the crowd, McCain must be arriving. There’s a B-25 Mitchell blocking my view.

Clever sign watch: “We are lipstick-wearing pigs.”

McCain is in the building.

Sarah Palin is firing up the crowd, especially when talking about energy independence.

McCain is up. He seems stronger in person in person than on TV. He does not seem old at all.

McCain’s stump speech hit all the right notes — he talked about reform with conviction. More later.

McCain’s Rapid Reaction

As the situation on Wall Street develops and worries grow about the economy, Sen. McCain already has an effective ad out discussing the issue:

Now, I’m not sure that this problem will be solvable with more regulation—the market is already doing enough to punish those firms that engaged in the trade of “liar loans” in the subprime market. However, McCain is pounding the issue of which candidate is best suited to lead this country in a crisis. When it comes to leadership, McCain has a decisive edge both substantively and in the polls.

The looming financial crisis is based on bipartisan stupidity in the creation of GSEs like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. However, Sen McCain has been on top of this issue for months now. Obama’s pick of Sen. Biden is VP hurts his ability to champion reform—Biden has cozy ties to the banking industry, especially Bank of America/NBNA. McCain and Palin have the opportunity to once again display themselves as the champions of substantive reform rather that the nondescript idea of “change.”

This ad shows that the McCain team can rapidly react to changing circumstances and use them to reinforce their political narratives. The Obama campaign does not seem to have the same ability—at least not that they’ve been able to show. Presidential politics is a game of maneuver, and McCain’s team has some master tacticians. Whether Obama can catch up is anyone’s guess, but going negative and attacking McCain won’t be the way to do it.

Minnesota Now A Swing State?

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune‘s Minnesota Poll is infamous for overstating Democratic performance. Whether it is by sampling bias or methodology, the poll has consistently tended to overstate the performance of Democratic candidates in Minnesota.

Which is why, for the Obama campaign, having the Minnesota Poll showing Minnesota dead even should be a major worry.

Political campaigns are all about momentum. If Obama has to shore up support in Minnesota, that means less time and money to keep Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and other potential swing states in play. That gives McCain the advantage. If Minnesota is competitive, states like Michigan and Wisconsin are in play as well. Obama cannot afford to lose those states if he wants to win. McCain has the momentum, and so far Obama has been unable to wrestle it away from him. If McCain continues to pick up independent voters and Obama continues to flounder, the race could end up being a blowout.

This summer, it was looking like McCain had virtually no chance. Obama had the potential for a massive upset. Today, the electoral map has radically changed. McCain is picking up support in the key states he must hold, like Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Indiana. He is putting pressure on Obama in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan. If McCain can hold on to Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico, he can win. If he can do that and peel off one of the “blue” states, Obama will be shut out.

This race keeps getting more and more interesting, and it will come down to whether McCain can hold his momentum through the next few weeks. Politics is continually fluid, and McCain could blow it or Obama could surge ahead. However, the trendlines now clearly favor McCain, and Obama is running a truly competitive race against a candidate who has displayed an astounding knack for knocking Obama off his feet. The idea that this election, which was looking to be a Democratic blowout, is now close goes to show just how good the McCain team has gotten after months of lowered expectations and near disasters.

Obama’s “Pig” Comment And Unforced Errors

It seems as though everyone has seized on Barack Obama’s comment about “putting lipstick on a pig” yesterday&mash;and Glenn Reynolds has the links to prove it.

At first, I figured that there was no way that Obama could have been that stupid—he would never be dumb enough to make that big a gaffe. But in context, it does sound like he’s calling Palin a “pig” and then goes on to compare McCain to an “old fish.” That also seems to be the way that the audience interpreted it.

This was an incredibly dumb move by Obama. It was an unforced error, and comments like that are enough to sink a political career. Obama is a gifted rhetorician, but without the crutch of a teleprompter, he makes mistake after mistake after mistake. He’s as gaffe prone as President Bush, and now the media is starting to take notice of this.

Obama’s campaign is making mistakes at the worst time. Not accepting public financing means that he has to do 40 fundraisers this month—time that could have been spent on the campaign trail. What’s worse about that is that the message that a Democratic donor wants to hear is not going to be the message that a swing voter wants. Obama cannot afford to swing to the left now. but his need for cash forces him to play to two audiences while McCain can play to independents.

From the beginning, I’ve said that Obama has never run a truly competitive national race. The bruising primary with Clinton seemed to have shown that he could handle it. Now, I’m beginning to wonder how much of that victory was the collapse of Clinton rather than the skill of Obama. Obama has spent the first part of this week on the defensive, which is not where a candidate should be. He’s making errors, looking foolish, and undercutting his claim to be something more than your typical politician.

Obama’s idiotic “pig” comment doesn’t itself mean all that much. What it does suggest is that Obama’s mouth is becoming a problem for him—and with less than 60 days to go in this election, a major unforced error can be fatal.

UPDATE: The overly whiny way that Obama is handling this situation doesn’t suit him. Comparing this to “Swift Boating?” Is that any way to make this controversy go away?

Obama is clearly rattled now, and coming off as desperate and whiny doesn’t make Obama look like a strong leader. Obama does not play well on the defensive, and it shows.

Could Michigan Swing To McCain?

A recent poll in Michigan shows Obama with the slenderest of leads, and many undecided independent voters. If Michigan goes to McCain, Obama is going to have a very difficult time making up for its electoral votes. If Michigan and Pennsylvania swing to McCain, it’s over for Obama. That scenario is unlikely, but it’s well within the realm of possibility.

McCain and Palin have a chance to reach out to the blue-collar Reagan Democrat voters that have always been skeptical of Obama. McCain is already peeilng away some Democratic voters, and if that trend holds, Obama is in severe trouble.

This race is very much up in the air, and many key states are close. However, the momentum is on McCain’s side, and if they are able to capitalize on that momentum in the weeks ahead, it is possible that close states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania could shift to McCain. If that happens, even Obama gains in Colorado and New Mexico won’t be enough to save his chances at the White House.

McCain Gets A Bounce

The first batch of post-RNC polls are out, and they contain good news for John McCain.. In the Gallup Tracking poll, McCain is up 3% against Obama. In the Rassmussen Tracking poll, McCain is tied 48% to 48%.

These polls show that McCain did get a bounce from the RNC, and that this race is very fluid. It would not be surprising if these numbers get better for McCain by mid-week as weekend polls sometimes undercount Republicans.

I am going to go off on a limb and predict that Obama will underperform his polling numbers—just as he did in New Hampshire in January. I believe that there is a strong “bandwagon” effect among Obama voters and that McCain will actually peel away some of the Hillary voters that have “come home” to the Democrats after the DNC.

Watch the swing state vote—states like Colorado, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan will decide this election. Obama needs some of the key Western states to win. McCain must take Ohio and Florida to win. Obama has to hold all of Kerry’s states and peel off enough electoral votes for the red states to win.

If Pennsylvania goes to McCain, Obama is toast. He is unlikely to pull enough additional electoral votes to make up for that loss. If I were McCain, I’d be having Sarah Palin circling the Great Lakes states while McCain pulls Colorado, Nevada, and possibly New Mexico from Obama.

This race is completely up in the air. McCain has taken some of the wind out of Obama’s sails. He has an opportunity to run as an “agent of change” and beat the prevailing political climate. Obama is now on the defensive, and could lose. The debates will be critical, and the next two months will be some of the most exciting in American politics yet.

UPDATE: The latest Gallup/USA Today tracking poll has even better news for McCain: a lead of 10% in a survey of likely voters. That poll is likely an outlier, but there’s little doubt that McCain has gotten a bounce from his convention, and that Obama’s lead has evaporated.

UPDATE: Today (Sept. 8), McCain has a 3.2% lead in the RealClearPolitics average. All the major polls show the race either tied, or with McCain in the lead. There’s no doubt that McCain got a bounce from the convention, and that it was a substantial one. The question will be whether he can make the best of that momentum into Election Day.

In TV Ratings, McCain Beats Obama

This is surprising to me, but it appears that the preliminary TV ratings for McCain’s speech last night were higher than Obama’s. Granted, the numbers could change, but I didn’t think the numbers would even be close.

Gov. Palin’s speech had less than one million fewer viewers than Obama’s speech, but was carried on six networks to Obama’s ten. Obama had just over 37 million viewers to Palin’s over 36 million. Palin’s speech was the most-watched speech by a Vice Presidential contender in history.

What does this mean? Obviously the more viewers the better. Obama got fawning press and put on a great show. McCain’s speech was natural, and I have a feeling that it will play better with independent voters. If so, it is quite possible that McCain will get a stronger-than-expected convention bounce in the next set of polls. As with Obama, we have to wait until late next week to see if the bounce lasts, but McCain and Palin have undoubtedly exceeded expectations. If McCain outperforms Obama in the debates and reaches out to independent voters, this race could shift dramatically in the 60 days until Election Day.