Paul Ryan’s Tour De Force

Paul Ryan gets it. Last night’s convention speech was a tour de force, clearly and forcefully arguing not only why the Obama Administration has failed, but what the Republican Party stands for in opposition to the last four years. There were many notable lines—but the most powerful part of the speech was this:

Paul Ryan speaks at the 2012 Republican National Convention

Paul Ryan speaks at the 2012 Republican National Convention

President Obama is the kind of politician who puts promises on the record, and then calls that the record. But we are four years into this presidency. The issue is not the economy as Barack Obama inherited it, not the economy as he envisions it, but this economy as we are living it.

College graduates should not have to live out their 20s in their childhood bedrooms, staring up at fading Obama posters and wondering when they can move out and get going with life. Everyone who feels stuck in the Obama economy is right to focus on the here and now. And I hope you understand this too, if you’re feeling left out or passed by: You have not failed, your leaders have failed you.

That is one of the most damning indictments of the Obama Administration possible. Because it cuts to the quick of why Obama has failed. He came into office promising to be a different kind of politician—someone who would transcend the petty divisions of everyday politics and get America back on track. As our future Vice President eloquently stated, his lack of leadership has failed us.

Lying Liars and the Lying Lies They Lie About

And the real sign of how successful Ryan’s speech has been the cacophony of idiocy that has been unleashed by the left. The official meme is that Paul Ryan’s speech was filled with “lies”—the definition of “lie” being “things that Democrats disagree with or make Democrats look bad.

Take the most commonly-cited example of one of Ryan’s so-called “lies:”

President Barack Obama came to office during an economic crisis, as he has reminded us a time or two. Those were very tough days, and any fair measure of his record has to take that into account. My home state voted for President Obama. When he talked about change, many people liked the sound of it, especially in Janesville, where we were about to lose a major factory.

A lot of guys I went to high school with worked at that GM plant. Right there at that plant, candidate Obama said: “I believe that if our government is there to support you … this plant will be here for another hundred years.” That’s what he said in 2008.

Well, as it turned out, that plant didn’t last another year. It is locked up and empty to this day. And that’s how it is in so many towns today, where the recovery that was promised is nowhere in sight.

Immediately after the speech, Chris Matthews entered into a foaming-at-the-mouth rage proclaiming that this section of the speech was a “lie.” The left went into their usual paroxysms of rage over the supposed “lie,” claiming that the Janesville plant was shut down in mid-2008 rather than the Obama years.

But, as typical, the self-appointed “fact checkers” got it utterly wrong—the Janesville plant closed its doors for good in May 2009, even though as Ryan said, the plant had been slated to close since 2008.

This is another example of the tactics of the left—they seize upon irrelevant minutiae and try to explode it into an issue, amplifying their silliness through the left-wing echo chamber of liberal blogs, MSNBC, and the Obama Administration itself. The problem for them is that those tactics are becoming less and less effective as more and more Americans are becoming wise to them.

Why Ryan Rose Above

But enough about the left. What matters is whether Ryan connected with the average voter and demonstrated that he could take the job of Vice President. On that account, he hit a home run. Ryan was initially a little nervous—understandable for such a momentous speech in his political career. But as he went on, he hit his stride and spoke with both fluency and authority. Ryan needed to do well last night, and he did. He connected with the audience, both on the convention floor and on television.

One of the jobs of a VP nominee in a campaign is to be the attack dog, and Ryan delivered a blistering speech about Obama. But the way he did it was crucial to his success. This wasn’t a speech about blasting Obama with both barrels, this was a speech that struck a tone of disappointment. Americans don’t like Obama’s record, but they still look at him far more kindly than he deserves. What Ryan did was acknowledge that, but speak directly to the sense of palpable disappointment that many voters feel. As he put it:

It all started off with stirring speeches, Greek columns, the thrill of something new. Now all that’s left is a presidency adrift, surviving on slogans that already seem tired, grasping at a moment that has already passed, like a ship trying to sail on yesterday’s wind.

President Obama was asked not long ago to reflect on any mistakes he might have made. He said, well, “I haven’t communicated enough.” He said his job is to “tell a story to the American people” – as if that’s the whole problem here? He needs to talk more, and we need to be better listeners?

Ladies and gentlemen, these past four years we have suffered no shortage of words in the White House. What’s missing is leadership in the White House. And the story that Barack Obama does tell, forever shifting blame to the last administration, is getting old. The man assumed office almost four years ago – isn’t it about time he assumed responsibility?

Again, damning stuff, but not a full-barreled attack. Ryan didn’t need to call the President names. He didn’t need to insult his honor, he didn’t need to accuse him of wanting to harm seniors or call him a “sociopath” or go down the low road so well-trodden by the left. Ryan simply told it like it is. He hit Obama right where it hurts, and right where Obama is weakest. This is the message that the GOP needs to take to all those voters not already in Obama’s camp. This is the message that says “we get why you chose Obama in 2008, but things are different now.”

Now, Romney needs to close the deal. And I have a feeling that if he matches the rhetorical prowess that Paul Ryan displayed last night, he’ll be doing very well this fall.

A Word on Condi

But one quick post-script. I’ve been a fan of Dr. Condoleezza Rice for some time. I think she was a highly-effective Secretary of State in a tough time. But last night Dr. Rice demonstrated that she is one of the brightest stars in the GOP firmament. Her speech was powerful, direct, eloquent, and emotional at times. She displayed a passion for education reform, a deep understanding of foreign policy, and a real sense of what it is to be a conservative.

I suspect she’s far too smart to ever really consider running for President. But that’s a great loss to this country, because she would be a wonderful President.

Oh, and that supposed “war on women” that the GOP has been fighting. Judging from Dr. Rice, Ann Romney, Nikki Haley, Susannah Martinez, and the rest, that talking point is not only stale and odious. And who will the Democrats feature? Sandra Fluke, a woman whose claim to fame is a demand that government give her free birth control. Compare her to Dr. Rice, a woman who went from the Jim Crow-era South to being a concert pianist, an expert on Russian affairs, Secretary of State, and now teaches at Stanford—the contrast in what party values women as individuals of accomplishment and which party just panders to women could not be more clear.

The State Of The Race – Pre-GOP Convention Edition

When Mitt Romney chose Paul Ryan as his running mate, things were not looking up for the Romney campaign. Several polls (with highly skewed sample) showing Romney down big against Obama. The swing-state polls were not looking good for Team Romney either. And there were worries that Romney was not hitting back hard enough against a barrage of negative attacks from the Obama Campaign.

Now, just before next week’s Republican National Convention, Team Romney has reason to be happy. The polls are showing a major tightening in the race, and several polls are showing a narrow Romney lead. The Ryan pick has energized the Republican base. And Team Obama is looking increasingly desperate, and are about to make a major mistake that could cost them the election.

But first, let’s take a closer look at the polls. Fox News shows Romney with a narrow lead, while CNN shows an Obama lead of 2% – well within the poll’s 3.5% margin of error. Meanwhile, both the Rassmussen and the Gallup daily tracking polls show Romney and the President neck-and-neck. The national polls show an incredibly tight race.

The stage for the 2012 Republican National Convention

The stage for the 2012 Republican National Convention

The swing-state polls are more troublesome for Romney. Ohio is a virtual must-win state for Romney, but he’s lagging in the polls there. While the new bipartisan pollster Purple Strategies shows Romney with a narrow lead in the Buckeye State, a more recent poll from CNN/NYT/Quinnipiac shows Obama with a formidable 6-point lead in Ohio. Under all but a few highly unlikely scenarios, the path to the Presidency runs through Ohio, and Romney is going to have to improve his numbers there if he wants to win the White House. Look for Ohio to be the biggest of the battleground states once more in 2012 as it was in 2008 and 2004.

What makes the 2012 race especially interesting is that the number of swing states is increasing. At the beginning of this race, Wisconsin was not considered a serious swing state. In 2008, Barack Obama swept the Badger State in a 14-point blowout. But now, Wisconsin is very much in play. Democratic pollster PPP shows Romney with a narrow lead, a finding that’s supported by GOP-leaning pollster Rassmussen. Even the CNN/NYT/Quinnipiac poll shows only a slim 2-point lead for Obama in Wisconsin. Wisconsin appears to be shifting from a reliably Democratic state to a true swing state – Kerry only narrowly won Wisconsin in 2004, and Obama’s huge win there appears to have only been an interruption of the pro-GOP trend there. With Paul Ryan hailing from the Milwaukee suburbs, it’s possible that Romney could win Wisconsin, which would help pad out his Electoral College position in a tight race.

Romney’s Missouri Problem

But Romney has a big problem in Missouri, and its name is Todd Akin. Akin’s moronic comments about women being able to “shut down” a pregnancy caused by a “legitimate rape” was absolutely inexcusable, and led to massive condemnation by nearly every member of the GOP. Akin, whose campaign is being run by his family (a major mistake for any political candidate), insists that he can still win. The chances of that are slim to zero. And what’s worse is that Akin’s idiocy could impact Romney’s chances in Missouri as well as keeping the Senate in Democratic hands. Losing Missouri would significantly impair Romney’s chances of winning in this highly-competitive race.

This is the second election cycle in a row where the Tea Party has blown a Senate race. In 2010 Christine O’Donnell and Sharron Angle took winnable races for the GOP and blew them to hell. While there is plenty about the Tea Party that I like, they have not gotten it through their collective heads that picking a hardcore conservative who says incredibly stupid things on national TV is A Very Bad Idea Indeed™. It’s not about picking the most conservative candidate. It’s about picking the most conservative candidate that can win. If Harry Reid remains Majority Leader, it will be in large part due to the Tea Party, a fact that has to be taken into account when assessing the pros and cons of the Tea Party movement.

Obama’s Impending Blunder

But, there is a silver lining to the dark cloud that is Todd Akin. And that’s that President Obama is about to completely overplay his hand on social issues. The Democratic National Convention is looking increasingly like it will be a celebration of abortion. Sandra Fluke, the abortion-rights activist will be a headline speaker along with representatives of Planned Parenthood and the pro-abortion extremist movement. While Todd Akin represents one extreme of the abortion question, the Democrats are going to embrace the other extreme. This is a mistake for two reasons:

First, the American people care about jobs and the economy, not abortion and contraception. People are wondering whether they’ll have a paycheck next year and are trying to make the paychecks they do have stretch to pay for higher gas and food costs. The more the Democrats talk about divisive social issues, the more they carry themselves away from the mainstream of American politics today.

Secondly, for the voters that do care about social issues, they tend to be more socially conservative voters. Evangelicals may not be crazy about Mitt Romney’s Mormonism, but when contrasted with the Democrats celebrating the idea of taxpayer-funded abortion on demand, that’s only going to get the more enthused about voting against the Democrats.

Obama and the Politics of Division

But all of this plays into Obama’s strategy for 2012. Obama knows he can’t run on his record. Even Democratic strategists like James Carville realized early on that running on an “economic recovery” theme was not working with voters. So what can Obama do? He can try to make Romney toxic. He can’t run on himself, so he has to bring Romney down.

And that’s why you’ve seen a barrage of attacks against Romney on Bain, on Medicare, on his tax returns, etc. It’s a scorched-earth campaign designed to keep Romney’s poll numbers down far enough for Obama to maintain a narrow win. And while it’s been partially successful, it’s beginning to backfire on the President.

Obama’s appeal with independent voters was that he was a post-partisan, post-racial President. He’s no longer even trying to make that case anymore. Instead, he’s playing it like a typical Chicago politician. That does not make him very attractive in the eyes of voters, and that’s why he’s locked in such a tight race with Romney—while voters are not sure about Romney, they are equally if not more skeptical about President Hope-and-Change becoming just another political hack.

What to Watch for at the Republican National Convention

With that background on the state of the race, the question is what the RNC must do. And first and foremost, it’s got to introduce Mitt Romney to the American people. It seems odd to suggest that someone that’s run for President twice now is not well-known to the American public, but Romney has been largely unwilling to tell his own personal story. That needs to change at the RNC. Romney needs to embrace his personal narrative and give the American electorate a look at why they should vote for him over Obama.

And that’s why the Romney campaign needs to reject the media narrative on this race. The media says that Romney dare not run on his record at Bain—that’s a load of crap. Romney should not run from what he did, but should highlight the businesses that Bain saved from Sports Authority to Staples. The media says that Romney can’t run on his record at the Olympics—again, the media is acting as a wing of the Obama campaign. Romney can and should run on his record.

The American people don’t know Mitt Romney well yet, especially in contrast to a President who wrote two autobiographies before he even accomplished anything. (Even if those autobiographies were carefully-manipulated fictions.) Romney doesn’t need to spend that much time attacking Obama—Obama’s dismal economic record speaks for itself. What Romney must do is introduce himself to the American people and paint his vision of an American Comeback.

If he can do that successfully, watch the polls. Right now Romney’s numbers are moving the right way. If he does what he needs to do at the RNC, the poll numbers are going to start to diverge into Romney’s favor. The fundamentals on the ground favor Romney, and now that the election season is beginning in earnest, the Romney campaign has the opportunity to seize on those natural advantages and build them into a political wave. Romney definitely can win, and he’s in a position to do so as he heads into the week of the Republican National Convention.

Romney Picks Paul Ryan As VP

It’s official – Mitt Romney has announced Wisconsin Congressman and budgetary guru Paul Ryan as his running mate, announcing the pick via push notification through a specialized app. I’ll be liveblogging the official announcement as it unfolds.

9:08 am The more childish the MSNBC set gets, the more you know that your arguments are right.
 
9:07 am Looking at the instant reactions from the left on Twitter, it shows that picking Ryan was the right choice.
 
9:00 am Based on the MSNBC reaction, it looks like the left is worried.
 
8:59 am The Obama campaign wants this to be a values election – but the Romney campaign wants that too.
 
8:57 am Now the talking head at MSNBC is saying that Ryan undercuts Romney’s message on the economy. Again, really?
 
8:56 am Watching MSNBC is like looking through the window into the alternate universe from Fringe…
 
8:55 am Yup, MSNBC is talking about foreign policy. Talk about grasping at straws here.
 
8:54 am And Rachel Maddow is attacking Paul Ryan for not having served in the military. Really?
 
8:53 am Switching to MSNBC to see how the far left is reacting.
 
8:53 am In four years it’s gone from hope and change to fear and defending the broken status quo.
 
8:52 am Obama has to go on the attack to win – but doing that destroys his 2008 mystique.
 
8:51 am Obama won in 2008 because he said he would be better than a typical politician. Now he’s just another political hack.
 
8:51 am Romney and Ryan are offering substantive critiques of this administration. Obama is making wild accusations.
 
8:50 am It shows just how childish they are in this campaign.
 
8:49 am I love how the left is making fun of Romney for introducing Paul Ryan as President instead of VP.
 
8:47 am The electoral math would have favored Portman or Rubio. But Romney made the right choice with Ryan.
 
8:47 am Ryan’s speech shows why he’s a rising star with the GOP.
 
8:45 am What the GOP needs badly is new blood and someone who can bring conservative principles to the undecided. Ryan does both.
 
8:44 am Ryan is hitting all the points he needs to hit. Smart and substantive.
 
8:43 am Our rights come from nature and God, not government. – Exactly right, and why America is exceptional.
 
8:42 am Ryan draws an optimistic contrast to the record of the last four years. That is what Romney must do to win.
 
8:40 am It is clear that Romney is not going to run away from his Bain record. And he shouldn’t. He saved thousands of jobs.
 
8:40 am So far Ryan is very impressive. But the real test will be when he goes one-to-one against Biden.
 
8:38 am Ryan is going against the new normal – this is a powerful line against the way the last four years have unfolded.
 
8:37 am But Ryan’s critique of Obama is smart and substantive. That’s what voters need to hear in this race.
 
8:37 am Whatever the excuses, this is a record of failure. Ryan’s playing the traditional attack-dog role.
 
8:36 am Debt, doubt, and despair – how Ryan characterizes Obama’s first term in office. Quite accurate.
 
8:35 am The CW was that Romney would not pick someone who could outshine him. The CW was wrong.
 
8:34 am And already the Obama campaign is taking their potshots at Paul Ryan: http://www.politico.com/politico44/2012/08/obama-camp-takes-first-shot-at-ryan-131750.html
 
8:33 am One thing for sure: Paul Ryan will not be thrown off his game in interviews like Sarah Palin was.
 
8:33 am Will this put Wisconsin in play? I would be skeptical, but Ryan represents a swing district.
 
8:31 am Ryan is a great public speaker. He has a natural sense of cadence, a key skill for a politician.
 
8:30 am Romney had announced that Ryan would be President rather than Vice President. I’d be OK with that… in 2020.
 
8:30 am “Every now and then I’m known to make a mistake” – nice moment for Romney.
 
8:28 am A note on optics: having a candidate descend stairs to get to the lectern is inviting disaster…
 
8:28 am Ryan is now taking the lectern. Air Force One is playing in the background again. Still love that music…
 
8:27 am Lots of talk about the middle class in Romney’s speech – contrasting against Obama’s narrative that Romney doesn’t care about the middle class.
 
8:26 am Getting America back to work is going to be a frequent theme for the Romney/Ryan campaign in this cycle.
 
8:23 am “He doesn’t demonize his opponents.” – In contrast to our current President, who does.
 
8:23 am Romney is talking about Ryan’s personal narrative – which is something Romney needs to do more for himself.
 
8:22 am Mitt Romney resembles the Platonic form of an American politician. Which in some ways works against him.
 
8:20 am The music announcing Romney is the theme to Air Force One. Absolutely inspired choice.
 
8:20 am McDonnell’s speech is very spirited, but going on a bit too long. He is announcing Romney now.
 
8:19 am So, how long before @BarackObama and his campaign accuses Paul Ryan of giving someone cancer? I say no more than a week.
 
8:12 am Even though the Ryan pick is based on the economy, holding the event there reminds voters of American strength.
 
8:11 am The optics of holding the announcement on the USS Wisconsin are very interesting.
 
8:10 am Bob McDonnell is introducing the candidates. McDonnell is the governor of Virginia and a rising GOP star.
 
8:03 am It is interesting that Romney didn’t go with Rob Portman, who would have helped Romney in the key swing state of Ohio.
 
8:01 am It will be very interesting to see the polls on how @PaulRyanVP effects the race. Ryan is not well known now.
 
7:58 am It is interesting that the Ryan pick was more about reinforcing Romney on the economy than filling in foreign policy chops.
 
7:53 am Fox News is replaying Rep. Ryan at the ObamaCare meetings. It shows how good he can be challenging the President.
 
7:51 am George Allen is speaking at the event – he’s locked in a close race for the Senate in Virginia.
 
7:49 am As a policy nerd, picking @PaulRyanVP seems like a very smart move.
 
7:48 am Obama’s most effective attack lines were that Romney had no plan, and that he was just repeating Bush. That attack is much harder to make with Ryan as #VP.
 
7:44 am The pick of Paul Ryan could not be more different than the pick of Sarah Palin in 2008, but the effect on the base will likely be the same.
 
7:44 am Romney and Ryan seem very well matched, which is crucial for having a coherent campaign team.
 
7:43 am Excerpts of Ryan’s speech can be found here – http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/excerpts-ryans-speech_649757.html
 
7:42 am Paul Ryan will speak shortly – excerpts are already appearing online.
 
7:39 am Despite the claims that Paul Ryan’s budget plan is radioactive, a Greenburg/Carville poll showed it polling at 52% in swing districts.
 
7:36 am @PaulRyanVP already has 7,000 followers, and the announcement was made in the early morning on a weekend…
 
7:35 am Already, Paul Ryan has an official Twitter account for his VP position – @PaulRyanVP
 
7:32 am The official announcement is taking place at the USS Wisconsin, docked in the key swing state of Virginia.