Defanging The Dragon

Looking more deeply at the India-Pakistan crisis, there are rumors that Israel is advising India to execuite a tactical strike to elminate the Pakistani nuclear arsenal. Then again, that plan could also lead to a higher chance of nuclear exchange, as India would be unlikely to hit all the nukes that Pakistan has and Pakistan would feel obligated to respond militarily. Rather, if Musharraf were smart, he’d let the US/UN intervene to help de-escalate the situation. Neither side will attack if the US is in the middle, and all that would be needed is to move a few divisions across Pakistan. It’s dangerous, but doable.

Whatever happens, it needs to happen quick. Removing the matches from this powderkeg might keep it from going off, or at the very least buy some time for both leaders to cool their forces down. I’d really hate to see Musharraf, who could become the next Ataturk, blowing it all on a conflict that he knows he cannot win.