As I had predicted, President Bush’s approval ratings have gone back up to 70%, and more people now support action against Iraq than did a few weeks ago. The reasons are easy to guess at: Bush’s speech to the UN put him back at the spotlight, and even Kofi Annan had to admit it was a brilliant political move. Also, there’s probably a slight bounce from the September 11 anniversary.
Bush’s political capital will likely stay as long as he remains on the forefront of the Iraqi situation. A good chunk of the PR battle can be won just by showing up and looking Presidential. If the Congressional Republicans can make Iraq a campaign issue, especially against vulnerable liberal Democrats, they might be able to pull out of the dead-heat that most major races are in. Right now foreign policy is a Republican issue. Even the economic issues that the Democrats were hoping to win on have receded somewhat. (Although a major economic downturn would still be very bad for the GOP, the economic scandals of the past few months no longer have enough traction to be a major GOP concern.)
It’s a long way until November, but as the economy slowly starts to stabilize and the war talk picks up, the Democrats may see some major races that are in virtual dead heats start to go over to the GOP – although nothing is assured.
