Five O’Clock Predictions

Despite the fact that it’s not five o’clock quite yet, here are my early predictions for the major MN races based partially on observative and partially by pulling numbers from the depths of my posterior. As always, take everything with a grain of salt.

US SENATE: Mondale is going down, but not by much. Expect the GOP’s better fieldwork and reactions to the Wellstone debacle to give Norm Coleman just enough edge to knock off Mondale. Just don’t expect any real concrete indications until early Wednesday morning due to the hand-counting of ballots.

GOVERNOR: Pawlenty will pull off a 35% to 33% lead against DFLer Roger Moe. As is typical with third-party candidates, Tim Penny is seeing his support erode horrendously in the home stretch. His support will likely drop to nearly 12% and most of his supporters, especially in Southern Minnesota will jump to Pawlenty.

DISTRICT 1: Gutknecht has had this one in the bag the whole time. No question that he’ll win big in his new district. 1 for the GOP.

DISTRICT 2: Again, John Kline’s third time against Bill Luther will be the charm. With redistricting, Kline gets a much more GOP-friendly district. Also, the dirty tricks with the "No New Taxes Party" will backfire on Luther. 1 for the GOP.

DISTRICTS 3,4,5: Jim Ramstad, Betty McCollum, and Martin Sabo are all very much safe. No surprises here at all. 2 for the DFL, 1 for the GOP.

DISTRICT 6: Janet Robert has a bigger war chest than Kennedy and was doing better than expected in the polls. In the end, none of that matters, as her campaign wasn’t that effective, and even the liberal Star-Tribune endorsed Kennedy. This one goes to Kennedy by a small margin.

DISTRICTS 7,8: 2 safe DFL seats.

CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICES: Attorney General Mike Hatch is relatively safe against GOP challenger Tom Kelly. Secretary of State Kiffmeyer should handily win re-election as well. The auditor position will likely go to Patricia Anderson-Awada of the GOP by a narrow margin.


  • SENATE: Coleman by 1+ for the GOP.
  • GOVERNOR: Pawlenty by 2+ for the GOP.
  • CONGRESS: DFL gets 4 seats, GOP gets 4 seats (Kline, Gutknecht, Kennedy, Ramstad)
  • CONSTITUTIONAL OFFICES: GOP wins all but Attorney General.

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