Predictions For 2003

As is the usual custom, here are my New Year’s predictions for what will transpire in 2003. They range from the serious to the silly. Given that last year’s predictions weren’t all that far off. (Except John Walker Lindh got off easy, Yassir Arafat is still in power, and Osama most likely met his daisy-cutter to the infernal abyss days before…) We’ll see how I scored come December 31, 2003.

• Saddam Hussein will fall before Valentine’s Day. His weapons of mass destruction will be either disabled or destroyed within 24 hours of the first strikes. The attack will also feature EMP or microwave weapons used to disable radar and communications equipment.
• The Iranian theocracy will go through a revolution that will see a Western-oriented government take its place. The new Iranian government will see very close ties with Russia.
• Russia will begin increasing its oil production capacity. Combined with Iraqi oil now flowing freely, the Saudi economy will begin to collapse. Before the end of the year that House of Saud will have practically abandoned their country.
• A conclusive link will be found proving that Iraq produced the anthrax used in the 2001 attacks.
• The leadership of al-Qaeda will be confirmed dead or captured, and al-Qaeda will splinter into smaller, less effective groups.
• Palestinian agents will attempt to use a weapon of mass destruction on Israel. Israel responds by capturing Arafat, causing a row with the UN. A major Palestinian city is also leveled to the ground in retaliation.
• The German government will collapse, leading to new election in which anti-tax reformers win by large margins.
• The Euro will slide dramatically as Germany announces that it is pulling out of the Maastricht Treaty in order to repair its economy.
• The UK will hold a referendum on joining the Euro which will fail dramatically.
• Post-Iraq, Bush’s approval ratings will once again hit 70%+. Those ratings will slowly taper off as disagreements about domestic programs continue.
• The US economy will boom post Iraq as oil prices sink below $20/barrel. The NASDAQ and the NYSE will both make record highs as the economic uncertainty lifts and WiFi technology powers a new Internet revolution.
• Michael Jackson will have himself cloned. He will also have a new nose made from stem cells to repair his own, which melted in the hot California sun.
• The Matrix sequels will break box office records, only eclipsed by the Return of the King in December. The overall box office will be up dramatically, despite the MPAA whining about piracy.
• Video-On-Demand will begin to be rolled out in major metropolitan areas by the end of the year. It will be a hit among the TiVo crowd, and among the shows most popular on the service will be shows cancelled by the major networks before. Neilson Media will begin to bow to pressure to weigh TiVo and VOD statistics more heavily in their ratings calculations, giving shows that once were thought to have exceptionally low ratings a much bigger representation.
• Flexible display panels will be introduced by late in the year, at a relatively high cost. This "active paper" will be the Segway of 2003, except it will actually catch on.
• Linux will skyrocket in popularity in the Third World, especially in places like China. Microsoft will announce that it is creating a version of Microsoft Office for Linux by 2004.
• Andrew Sullivan’s next pledge drive will allow him to buy a clone to write full-time while he devotes himself to Shakespearean acting.