The Chinese are now confirming they intend to have a manned space launch in 2003. The Chinese are using designs based on the tested Russian Soyuz design and using frequently-tested rocket design. There’s a good chance that the Chinese will able to meet their mid-year deadline for the launch.
Unfortunately, it could also well be that the Chinese are the ones who make space travel more affordable while the creaking NASA bureaucracy continues to stall American aerospace industry.
If it spurs us on, it’s ok with me.