Predicting New Hampshire

My last attempt at an electoral prediction did not go as well as I’d hoped, but I figure I might as well give it a shot again. BushBlog has some interesting facts and figures on the New Hampshire contest that give some of the historical context to this race.

Here’s my prediction – we’ll see if I was closer than I was with the Iowa race:

  • John Kerry: 33%
  • Howard Dean: 27%
  • John Edwards: 13%
  • Wesley Clark: 12%
  • Joe Lieberman: 12%

Dean is regaining some momentum, but I think it’s a matter of too little, too late (although I said the same about Kerry in Iowa). Edwards has a boost from Iowa, but he still doesn’t have much of a base in New Hampshire and is getting crowded out in fundraising. Clark’s campaign is plummeting mainly because Wesley Clark is a weasel and even the Democrats are able to see right through him. Lieberman, while the only Democrat on the ticket with a clue, remains unlikely to go anywhere in this campaign.

In essence, as much as I’d like to see a bitter brokered convention, the field will likely narrow down to Kerry or Dean by the end of the brutal Super Tuesday races. Then again, as this race has already shown, anything could happen between now and then…

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