Bush’s Keystone

I was rather shocked to see the results of a recent Quinnipac poll showing Bush well ahead of Kerry in the Keystone State. Pennsylvania has been traditionally a Democratic stronghold in recent elections, especially considering the decline of manufacturing in the region. However, Bush now leads Kerry by a good 6% – outside the margin of error. This confirms an earlier Keystone poll which also shows Bush in a 6 point lead over Kerry.

If Kerry loses Pennsylvania, he’s pretty well sunk. The only way he could make up for that loss is by winning both Ohio’s 20 electoral votes and one other Bush state. If Kerry loses Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania, and Bush holds firm elswhere, he’s lost the election. Kerry already can virtually count on losing the South, and even traditionally Democratic states like Wisconsin and Iowa show a significant Bush lead or at least a strong Bush trend. Granted, poll numbers this far out are ephemeral, but if I were a Kerry advisor I’d be reaching for the Maalox right now.

What’s interesting is that the electoral trends don’t match what one would predict. Even I would figure that Bush would be taking a big hit from the Clarke testimony, the Woodward book, the September 11 Commission, etc. However, instead of making the war on terrorism a political liability for Bush it’s only strengthened his numbers.

The Democrats had two winning issues coming into this race: the war and the economy. Two months of attacks on the war have only strengthened Bush. The economy is recovering, and job growth is rising. (And believe me, I have some rather strong anecdotal evidence on that!)

I have a feeling that this race may not be as close as I’d thought…